In the past two days, Germany suddenly upgraded its alarm and bluntly stated that natural gas has become a scarce commodity for them. What's going on?
Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, in order to maintain their commitments, Europe has always threatened to get rid of its dependence on Russian energy, but privately, they have continued to use Russian energy.
For several months, Europe has maintained this "two-faced" approach to dealing with the United States and its own energy crisis.
Until recently, Russia's natural gas supply to Germany suddenly dropped by 60%, finally breaking this silence.
01. Straight-line gas drop
It is said that recently, Russia has been transmitting natural gas to Germany through the Nord Stream No. 1 pipeline due to a sudden reduction in equipment maintenance. This has resulted in a severe reduction in Nord Stream 1’s natural gas supply to Germany.
To make matters worse, the gas pipeline is scheduled to be shut down for ten days for maintenance starting from the middle of next month. This means that currently only 40% of the natural gas transported from Russia to Europe through the pipeline will be exported to Germany by the middle of next month. We will face the risk of complete exhaustion.
Russia's gas volume shrank severely without warning, and it was suddenly informed that it was preparing to cut off its gas in the middle of next month. This made Germany, which has always relied heavily on Russian natural gas, completely unable to sit still.
For this reason, Germany has spent a lot of time cursing Russia in the past few days, but in the face of unchangeable facts, Germany can only admit one thing: "From now on, natural gas will be a scarce commodity in Germany."
02 .Early warning upgraded
A serious shortage of natural gas has become a fact. In the past two days, Germany has raised their natural gas warning from level three to level two, which means that Germany's emergency natural gas plan has been raised by one level.
In fact, Germany’s emergency natural gas plan mainly includes three levels, among which level one is the lowest and level three is the highest.
In March this year, not long after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, when Russian natural gas supply suddenly encountered obstacles, Germany had already launched a first-level warning of the emergency natural gas plan.
After this stage of early warning is activated, Germany will have to strictly monitor the natural gas transportation situation every day, and at the same time step up the filling and replenishment of natural gas to storage facilities.
Now, because Russia has significantly reduced its gas volume and is about to face the risk of a possible short-term gas outage, Germany has recently launched a second-level warning.
triggered a second-level warning, which means that Germany has begun to face a high risk of long-term natural gas supply shortage. Once it enters the second stage, it means that Germany will begin to allow suppliers to pass on high prices to businesses or household users, thus helping to reduce demand for natural gas.
If the level three warning is triggered, it means that the German government will directly intervene in the natural gas market.
At present, Germany has started a level 2 alert, but it has not yet fully opened the door to allow suppliers to pass on costs to merchants and individuals, but it is clear that this process is on the way.
Because once the supply of natural gas tightens and prices continue to rise, costs will be transferred from upstream to downstream. By then, Germany's power company will inevitably fall into huge losses.
If the amount of losses is too large, it will eventually be difficult to guarantee that their power company will not collapse because of this. By then, the entire power market in Germany may also collapse.
03. Respond to
It is said that recently, when Germany announced that it was entering the second phase of its emergency natural gas plan, it immediately provided a credit line of 15 billion euros to fill natural gas storage facilities, and it is also preparing to introduce some incentive measures this summer to allow industrial users to save money. gas.
But right now, the most troublesome thing for Germany is that many places are in chaos. Because of the serious shortage of natural gas supply and skyrocketing prices, many low-income customers have defaulted on payment because the area is too large. Public utilities in many places in Germany have also been affected. Are facing the risk of bankruptcy.
For this reason, German local governments began to require subsidies to protect consumers, thereby protecting local public utilities in Germany.
Subsidy is a bottomless pit, because in the future, Germany will face a more serious natural gas shortage, and natural gas consumer prices may skyrocket.
So far, the cost of natural gas in Germany has increased by 170% compared with the same period. Faced with the possible "long-term gas cutoff" imposed by Russia, Germany has begun to consider restarting coal burning, which is highly polluting.
However, once it returns to the coal-burning era, it means that Germany cannot continue to point the biggest responsibility for "climate warming" caused by "emitting excessive carbon dioxide " to developing countries like us and India.
At that time, the weather vane will change, and Germany and European countries will become the main responsible persons for causing climate warming and causing the destruction of the human environment.
At the beginning, Europe took the lead in pointing out the "climate warming" theory and pointed the finger at developing countries for this result.
The climate theory has been promoted for some years. During this period, many experts, scholars and big Vs around the world have tried to falsify the theory that "human emissions of carbon dioxide cause climate warming" in Europe and the United States.
Among them, just looking at why the climate was colder during the industrial period than during the agricultural period, we can see that there are indeed many tricks in the European "climate theory".
Nowadays, the natural gas crisis has caused Europe to have to restart the coal-burning era. It seems that there is nothing wrong with digging a hole for yourself!
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