According to the past rhythm, the defense ministers of China and the United States met in Hong Kong, and after the director of the Chinese Foreign Affairs Office and the National Security Assistant to the US President met in Luxembourg, people began to wonder whether there should also be a meeting between the presidents of China and the United States.
The video call between the heads of state of China and Russia seems to have increased the anxiety of the United States and its expectations for another meeting between the heads of state of China. In the past few days, the United States has continuously sent signals to the outside world that it hopes to seek another phone call between the heads of state of the United States and China. For example, on June 16, Burns, the U.S. Ambassador to China, revealed at a meeting held by the Bruskin Society in Washington that after the phone call between the heads of state of China and Russia, the United States was actively in contact with China to promote the cooperation between China and the United States. Another call from the head of state. U.S. National Security Assistant Sullivan also publicly stated that there are many variables in the relationship between China and the United States. He hopes that the heads of state of China and the United States can have a face-to-face communication to solve the problems faced by both sides.
Judging from the overall situation of Sino-US relations, the United States is anxious, but China is not. Why? If we want to talk, how should we talk? What to talk about? When to talk?
1. Why is the United States anxious?
(1) The United States is really worried about China and Russia joining forces.
The spokesperson of the US State Department publicly accused China, saying that if China stands with Putin , it will prove that China is on the wrong side of history. U.S. Defense Secretary Austin and Presidential Security Advisor Sullivan also expressed such threats, saying that if China supports Russia, it will pay a serious price. This reflects that the United States is indeed worried about China and Russia joining forces. If China supports Russia, the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions against Russia will be greatly reduced. As long as Russia stabilizes its economy and people's livelihood, the ultimate impact of U.S. extreme sanctions will be on the United States and Europe. In fact, this effect has already appeared. Russia has used energy, food and other bulk commodities related to the national economy and people's livelihood as weapons to counterattack, keeping inflation high in the United States and Europe, and energy and food crises sweeping Europe, while Russia's economy has stabilized. position. In the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia is increasingly gaining the upper hand, and Russia has made substantial progress in both eastern and southern Ukraine. At the same time, Russia still has the energy to show its power in Asia, such as China-Russia maritime joint exercises, the Russian fleet sailing around the sun, and the Russian fleet is also practicing in similar waters during the RIM-Pacific military exercise.
(2) The United States’ containment of China has limited effect
Biden The pattern of containment of China built to contain China has yet to show results. Biden’s Asia trip ended with great excitement, “ Indo-Pacific Economic Framework " will then cool down. The military containment against China only involves a few tricks: arms sales to Taiwan, "free navigation" and joint military exercises. At the end of this month, the Rim-Pacific military exercise kicked off, and NATO integration into the Asian small circle accelerated, and China's countermeasures also increased. The situation that the U.S. government expected did not occur - reshaping the security environment around China and forcing China to Follow American order. It failed to support the Taiwan authorities at the World Health Assembly, and failed again in hyping up the Xinjiang issue at the United Nations Human Rights Council. The United States has to proceed cautiously: it restores the content of the "One China Principle" on the list of U.S. relations with Taiwan, does not include Taiwan in the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework", and does not include Taiwan's military in the Rim-Pacific military exercises, and it frequently releases The signal of "not supporting Taiwan independence" always needs to be added with the sentence "oppose unilateral changes to the status quo."
(3) Domestic pressure in the United States has increased sharply
Although the Biden administration has taken measures, such as the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and blaming Russia, inflation remains high, forcing Yellen to admit her mistake and said that inflation may continue throughout the entire 2022. Originally, canceling the illegal tariffs imposed by the U.S. government on Chinese goods was a shortcut to alleviating inflation. However, the Biden administration cannot lose face. Perhaps it is afraid that Trump will take the opportunity to attack, and it also wants to use tariffs as a bargaining chip to force China to make major concessions. In short, I want to take advantage of all the benefits, so I can't make up my mind. Although the United States is flat, the rebound of the epidemic is real. The Omicron mutant strains B.A4 and B.A5 are sweeping across the United States, and it is impossible not to affect the U.S. economy.Biden's approval rating has dropped below the 40% danger line, and the midterm elections are facing unprecedented pressure. The United States really wants China to help, but it talks too harshly, does too many bad things, and takes the reputation of the "world leader" too seriously. It fantasizes about forcing China to take the initiative to help. Biden himself may also I know this may be a bit fanciful.
(4) The United States wants to activate the final guardrail
When the United States is passive in Sino-US relations, it is particularly worried about conflicts between China and the United States because the United States itself is not ready yet. Therefore, guardrails are frequently used. Recently, Blinken reiterated his "Five Nos" in his China policy speech at the Asia Society: the United States does not seek conflict or a "new Cold War", does not seek to prevent China from playing its role as a great power, and does not seek to prevent China from playing its role as a great power. Seeking to prevent China from developing its economy and promoting its people's interests. This is a replica of what the United States calls "guardrails", namely Biden's "four inaccuracies and one inadvertent intention." He puts “not seeking conflict” first. Judging from the recently released information about expectations for the heads of state meeting, the "heads of state meeting" has also become the "guardrail" of the US government and the "last guardrail." Through the heads-of-state meeting, the situation of Sino-US relations brought to the brink of conflict caused by the US government has been pulled back. Regarding the conflict between China and the United States, the Biden administration is really not “prepared” yet!
2. Why is China not in a hurry?
(1) Central and American Countries
The core of China’s national strategy is to achieve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and let the Chinese people live a good life. And China’s strategy towards the United States is just an accessory to it. Good relations between China and the United States are beneficial to the realization of China's national strategy, while bad relations between China and the United States will only add some difficulties. As China's economic development and comprehensive national strength continue to increase, its ability to overcome this difficulty has become stronger and stronger. The Chinese government's main focus is on China's own affairs. On the contrary, the U.S. government regards the pursuit of global hegemony as its core interest, so containing China has become the top priority of the U.S. national strategy. Therefore, there is a strange phenomenon in the U.S. political arena: it cannot speak without mentioning China.
(2) China’s focus is on domestic
China certainly attaches great importance to building a peaceful external environment, which is beneficial to China’s development. But no matter how important it is, it is still a secondary issue. The first issue before the Chinese government is to solve domestic problems. China's economy is facing huge downward pressure, and part of the pressure comes from the outside world, especially the United States. Another part of the pressure comes from within. Therefore, China’s economic policy is to focus on internal circulation and ensure both international and domestic circulation. Overcoming the epidemic is an important issue facing China at the moment. How to maintain economic vitality despite repeated epidemics? This problem must be solved.
In addition, releasing the economic vitality of rural areas is also an important task at the moment. Some experts say that rural areas are the reservoir of China's economy, and this is not unreasonable. Food security also further increases the importance of rural economic vitality. Increasing investment in infrastructure construction, especially the construction of technical facilities related to high and new technologies, is also an important means to activate the economy. In particular, how to not only give full play to the role of capital in promoting the market and science and technology, but also regulate the operation of capital to prevent it from growing wildly is also a major test for China's current economic stability and progress. These issues are no less important than Sino-US relations, and they are all issues that must be resolved domestically. The focus of all domestic issues is whether it has improved people's living standards and consolidated the results of poverty alleviation.
(3) External relations are more than Sino-US relations
Among all external relations, Sino-US relations are the most important bilateral relations, and this is true. But it's not all. China also wants to develop friendly relations with 192 other countries. Therefore, while China is responding to the unwarranted containment and suppression by the United States, it is also working hard to develop relations with other countries, regions and international organizations. The "One Belt, One Road" initiative is advancing steadily, and friendly cooperative relations between China and ASEAN, the Middle East, Central Asia, South Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Pacific Island countries are in full swing. Even in Europe, which is deeply controlled by the United States, China has not given up. In the first quarter of this year, EU became China's largest trading partner.With the deterioration of Sino-US relations, the status of China-Russia relations has risen sharply, forming a back-to-back, side-by-side, unlimited relationship. These all need to be run and taken care of by China. China will not put all its energy on the United States and will not look at the face of the United States. Even if the United States thunders, China will still have clear skies and it does not necessarily have to rain.
(4) China has adapted to the trade war
The Sino-US trade war has continued to this day. Of course, China has suffered a lot of losses, but the United States has not taken advantage either. According to the U.S. government itself, 90% of the tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese goods are borne by American consumers. The United States' suppression of Chinese high-tech companies has made China passive, especially companies such as , Huawei, , and chip technology. But China will get through it. Just like the United States' blockade of nuclear technology , aerospace technology, satellite positioning technology, etc., hasn't China survived one by one? Recently, the United States has made a fuss about the supply chain and wants to create a circle with the United States as the core to exclude China. However, the epidemic has clearly shown that China is already the center of the global supply chain. The United States is again encouraging American companies in China to move to Southeast Asia. This is not so terrible for China as it develops today. It may just give way to Chinese national enterprises.
There is interesting news recently. McDonald's withdrew from the Russian market. After Russia took over, it opened under a different name. According to data released by National Bureau of Statistics , the foreign investment received by China in the first five months did not fall but rose instead. Russia's desperate counterattack against US sanctions has also increased China's confidence. Some experts suggest that the RMB should also find its own anchor. If this is the case, the role of the U.S. dollar will be greatly reduced, and sanctions will not be so effective.
(5) No results have been achieved after the talks.
We have seen that China is always "accepting requests", which shows that China is not too enthusiastic about meetings or phone calls. In addition to the above-mentioned "not urgent" reasons, that is, it is not interested in talks. The effect was disappointing. If talks achieve little, no results, or have counterproductive effects, then what’s the point of talking? China's "acceptance" has given the US government enough face, and it has the mentality that talking is better than not talking. Despite this, as long as China agrees to talk, its attitude will be serious, its conversations will be sincere, and it expects good results.
3. How to talk?
Since Biden took office, due to the unfriendly policies adopted by the Biden administration towards China, there has been no arrangement for mutual visits between heads of state. However, there are still many high-level meetings, including video meetings between heads of state, and China all meets "by appointment".
However, judging from the way the talks were conducted during the meeting, there are several characteristics:
(1) China’s “cliché”
China’s views on Sino-US relations are “consistent and clear”, which means they are “stable” , unchanged, consistent with words and deeds." Of course, it is impossible to say that this time and that next time. Therefore, it gives people the impression of "cliché" and it seems that there is nothing new to say.
Just like when China and the United States discussed the release of the " China-US Three Joint Communiqués ," China believes that the Taiwan issue is the core issue in Sino-US relations. China's attitude has remained unchanged for decades, that is, the United States must stop all actions to support Taiwan's "independence." Some people don’t understand how the Taiwan issue, which is China’s internal affair, has become the core issue in Sino-US relations. This is because it has special historical merits and merits - the remaining issues in China's internal affairs will become the core issue of Sino-US relations unless the United States takes advantage of them and forcibly intervenes.
As long as the United States does not interfere, China's peaceful reunification will be beneficial to China, and it will also be beneficial to the United States in the long run. However, the United States is afraid that China will become stronger and threaten its hegemony, so it has been reluctant to give up the wrong policy of "using Taiwan to contain China."
Therefore, every time China and the United States meet, China emphasizes that Taiwan is an inalienable part of its territory and demands that the United States stop sending wrong signals to the Taiwan authorities supporting "Taiwan independence." The words are already very polite. Of course this must be "commonplace".
(2) The United States does not mean what it says
China talks are aimed at friendly relations between China and the United States. As long as the United States does not interfere in China's internal affairs, Sino-US relations can be friendly. Once the Taiwan issue is resolved, Sino-US relations will remain friendly.
The United States does not come here for the sake of friendly relations between China and the United States. It comes here to make China obey American rules. The purpose is completely different. Therefore, what the United States has repeatedly pondered is how to make China surrender. If this method doesn't work, try that method next time. Therefore, the United States is constantly looking for new issues. In addition to the Tibetan and Taiwan issues in the past, the Hong Kong and Xinjiang issues later emerged. They were completely fabricated out of thin air, filled with lies, extortion, and forced submission. In this way, of course the US government can only "mean what it says", that is, it is not out of the original intention of making Sino-US relations friendly. It has no such original intention at all. Therefore, the U.S. government often tells lies, says one thing and does another, goes back on its word, and has no integrity at all. In front of the Chinese head of state, he swore "four no's and one unintentional", but turned around and changed to "four must and one intentional".
(3) China and the United States each speak their own words
China and the United States basically speak their own words in negotiations. China listened carefully to what the United States said. The Chinese head of state said that I understood and remembered what you said about "four differences and one intention". You must implement it when you go back! The United States only talked to itself and did not listen carefully to what China said. It laughed dryly and continued to go its own way after returning. The meetings were mostly like this. They did not change any status quo. Sino-US relations did not improve at all, but sometimes worsened. The head of state of China has given the head of state of the United States a lot of face, and the ladder to go downstairs has been set up for him: The main reason is that some of your people have not implemented the consensus between the two of us. Biden pretended not to understand, and then seemed to pretend to understand.
4. What to talk about?
The Chinese president talked about the friendly relations between China and the United States. China sincerely said: "Mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation" are the three principles that China and the United States must follow in their relations. These three principles are correct, just, and fair, and cannot be questioned wherever they are taken. All Biden can do is ah! He can’t always say that we don’t want to respect each other, we don’t want peaceful coexistence, we don’t want win-win cooperation. As long as he agrees, it will be considered a consensus between China and the United States. Therefore, China said: "Mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation" is the consensus reached by the heads of state of China and the United States.
The US president talks about China abiding by US rules. Biden talks about it, but what he thinks in his heart is: The United States is the only one who can coexist with China if it surrenders. Cooperation only allows me to win and you lose. China unconditionally cooperates with the US global strategy. Especially during the video call between the heads of state of China and the United States on March 18, Biden was distracted while listening to the Chinese head of state talk about the three principles of Sino-US relations and that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China. All he can think about is how to coerce China to cooperate with the United States in sanctioning Russia, just like when George W. Bush was in power, China supported and cooperated with the United States in anti-terrorism. Biden was extremely disappointed when he heard China's thoughts on handling the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Therefore, at the end of the call, we will study how to release the draft of the video meeting between the Chinese and US presidents to the outside world to benefit the United States. The draft avoids China's main concerns and focuses on Biden's threatening demands on China. The core meaning is that if China supports Russia, it will pay a heavy price.
So, what has China said about handling the conflict between Russia and Ukraine? To sum up, there are three points. First, China makes independent judgments based on the merits of the matter itself. Second, China stands on a just and peaceful standpoint. Third, Sino-Russian relations are not directed at or restricted by third parties. This is also equivalent to the three principles. That is to say, China believes that the root cause of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the United States' use of NATO's eastward expansion to expand global hegemony; China makes its own independent judgment on the Russia-Ukraine conflict without being coerced by a third party; China is not simply neutral but stands for peace and justice. In terms of position, if the United States harms China's interests under the pretext of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China will resolutely fight back to defend its own interests; China advocates promoting peace through talks, and China welcomes direct talks between the United States and Russia.
So, why can’t China cooperate with the United States in sanctioning Russia in the same way it cooperates with the United States in counter-terrorism? Because the two properties are different.Because terrorism is the common enemy of mankind, China has also suffered greatly from it. Xinjiang separatists are engaging in terrorist activities in China! The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is essentially the expansion of US hegemony. China's sanctions against Russia are tantamount to becoming an accomplice of hegemonism , and hegemonism is also the common enemy of mankind and a kind of "state terrorism"! How can China cooperate? !
5. When will we talk? There is currently no definite news about
. The video call between the heads of state of China and the United States took place 4 days after the last Yangshao meeting in Rome. This time it seemed not so fast. There was no response from China to the information released by the United States.
Last year, the United States announced that the heads of state of China and the United States would meet during the G20 summit. What about this year?
No matter when we meet in the future, if it still involves Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong, there will be no point in talking about it. China's attitude, stance, and propositions have never changed, and the talk can only be the same old talk. If it involves Taiwan, the United States is only interested in pointing out how China can unify, then there is no need to talk. If it does, it can only talk about when the United States will stop supporting Taiwan independence. Don't use "opposition to unilaterally change the status quo" as an excuse. Mainland China and Taiwan is on the same side, both sides are China, and there are no unilateral issues. In particular, the so-called Xinjiang issue that the United States has been pursuing closely recently is purely a lie. If the United States continues to accuse "genocide" and the like, there will be no need for a heads-of-state meeting. Before the meeting between heads of state, relevant personnel from both parties will make preparations and the topics to be discussed will be finalized in advance.
China can confidently set the scope of negotiations. If we still talk about China's internal affairs, we can either avoid them or bundle them. For example, if the United States wants to involve Xinjiang, China will talk about the United States' anti-epidemic issue. One million people have died, which is a serious humanitarian disaster. China is interested in matters of cooperation between the two countries, such as economic and trade cooperation, cooperation on climate issues, and cooperation on anti-epidemic issues. China is also interested in things that enhance the friendship between the two peoples, such as cultural exchanges and personnel exchanges. Is the United States willing to discuss the scientific and technological exchanges that China is most interested in?
There are three exciting things happening in China recently. The first thing is the launch of the 003 aircraft carrier, the second thing is China's announcement that the Taiwan Strait is not an international waters but waters under China's jurisdiction, and the third thing is the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs' release of "Falacies in the U.S. Perception of China" and the truth (referred to as "truth"). The "Truth" released by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs lists many examples of violations of international law by the United States. Just one example can be discussed at a regular high-level negotiation table for a long time. For example, since 2001, the wars and military operations launched by the United States in the name of counter-terrorism have killed more than 900,000 people, of which about 335,000 were civilians, injured millions, and displaced tens of millions. How can the United States give an explanation to the world? How does the United States compensate those who have died, been injured, and been displaced?
6. Conclusion
The meeting of heads of state is a major event and should not be treated as a trivial matter, nor should we easily agree to negotiate. Let's talk according to what China expects. Otherwise, let’s not talk about it. At the negotiation table, China still cannot lose. It can be flexible on non-principle issues, but on principle issues China must stick to the bottom line and protect the interests of the people to the greatest extent.
Note: The author of this article is Mou Lin, a core member of the "Qin'an Strategic Think Tank", and is an original work for this platform. In the new year, I wish everyone can join hands to defeat the epidemic, curb hegemony, and move towards a better future together.
