Recently, in the American magazine "National Interest", a person named David T. Pyne (David Pyne T.) contributed an article entitled "To Counter Russia and China, Make'Spheres of Influence' Great "Again" (against Russia and China, make the "sphere of influence" great again), puts forward a new perspective on the current Sino-US-Russian relations-China, the United States and Russia are "three parts of the world".
David T. Pyne is a former US Army Combat Weapons and Headquarters Staff Officer. He holds a Georgetown University National Security Research Master's degree. He currently serves as the Deputy Director of National Operations for the EMP National and Homeland Security Core Group. Therefore, his views are still worth exploring.
01|Retreat to advance-David T. Pyne's vision of the "three-legged" trend, whether strategic austerity and offshore checks and balances are feasible;
David T. Pyne believes that both China and Russia already have it In order to achieve the ability to attack the United States, whether it is the use of nuclear weapons to directly "hard kill" the United States, or the use of EMP to attack the US National Grid, the United States will be greatly harmed.
Is there any way to prevent China and Russia from attacking the United States?
Yes, that is, the United States does not create friction with China and Russia. The United States takes the initiative to sign a " Yalta Agreement" with China and Russia after the end of World War II. China, the United States and Russia each agreed on their own " "Sphere of influence", each family manages matters within its own "sphere of influence", and the other two countries must not interfere at will.
In this case,The entire Western Hemisphere, Western Europe, Japan, Australia and New Zealand will remain under the control of the United States, the former Soviet republics, Serbia, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Libya will belong to Russia’s “sphere of influence”, East Asia, Southeast Asia and parts of Africa are "allocated" to China, and the United States will not interfere in China's Taiwan Strait issues.
The United States will give up interfering in China's Taiwan Strait issues
David T. Pyne believes that the United States does not need to interfere in the affairs of the Taiwan Strait and other East Asian regions, and just keeps its "sphere of influence." This idea of David T. Pyne is actually a strategic austerity and offshore checks and balances policy of "retreat as progress".
David T. Pyne has this idea, on the one hand, it is because he believes that the United States currently "does everything" in the world, so that the United States does not have enough power to deal with the "joint attack" of China and Russia. Moreover, the United States "does everything" offended many countries and regions, leading many countries to carry out terrorist attacks on the United States.
And if it implements strategic contraction and offshore checks and balances, the United States can shrink its own power. Not only can it have more power to ensure the security of the United States, but also the "sphere of influence" and allies of the United States. When threatened, the United States can form a more powerful "expeditionary force" to intervene. In this way, to the maximum extent, it can avoid the three military powers of China, the United States and Russia from wiping out their guns.
02|Impossible task-China cannot be fooled. This will affect China's "One Belt One Road" initiative, and the United States, Russia, and the European Union will not agree;
On the surface This "three-legged" situation is very beneficial to China. For example, when China wants to regain Taiwan, the United States will not intervene, and the United States will not intervene. Naturally, other countries will not dare to intervene in the war in the Taiwan Strait.But the question is, is this proposal all good for China?
Of course not, the most intuitive disadvantage is that China's "Belt and Road" initiative will be severely affected. China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative will be directly divided into several pieces, and eventually the “One Belt One Road” initiative can only be implemented within China’s own “sphere of influence”, which is equivalent to a disguised weakening of China’s overall competitiveness.
After that, China, the United States and Russia will form within their respective "spheres of influence" a clearly exclusive economic cooperation organization, similar to the Soviet Union and the Economic Mutual Association, and then the entire world situation will become China and the United States. The "new cold war" between the three major powers in Russia is exactly what the US government likes to see at present-relying on the "Cold War" to conduct confrontation, instead of finding that it is inseparable from China.
Economic Mutual Meeting
Of course, although this set of proposals is not small to the United States, the US government will not be very willing to accept it. Because this set of proposals is equivalent to directly letting the US government give up its "Taiwan Strait Card" and other hole cards in its hand, and the loss is great. Moreover, what if China chooses to cooperate with Russia after solving its own internal affairs? What will the United States do?
In addition to China, the United States and Russia, the EU will not agree. Because this policy is equivalent to directly excluding countries such as Britain and France from the scope of negotiation. Countries such as Britain and France can wait for the results. The matter is directly decided by the three countries of China, the United States and Russia. Although the influence of Britain and France is declining, this kind of thing is definitely not acceptable to Britain and France.
In short, this proposal only exists in the "ideal state", that is, the power of each major country is completely regarded as a "pure power" that is not affected by other factors. But in reality, this strategy is difficult to implement, because various factors influence each other.
The reason why the " Yalta agreement " can be reached,It was because the Axis Group had not completely collapsed at that time, and the "Yalta Agreement" was an agreement to divide the "sphere of influence" as well as an agreement to divide the "scope of mission." But now? The conflict of interest between the United States and China and Russia has determined that there can be no other "Yalta Agreement."
Figure source network, intrusion and deletion.
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