The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China successfully concluded, embarking on a new journey of unity and progress. It should be said that before and after the convening of this conference, the outside world was not calm: the US stock market closed down and fluctuated, the exchange rate trend was anxious, and the financial market was turbulent; the conflict between Russia and Ukraine became increasingly fierce, and the British Prime Minister "innovation record" was unpredictable, and the international political arena was unpredictable. Just before the 20th National Congress, the "National Security Strategy", which was postponed by the Biden administration in the United States for nearly a year, was officially released. This report strengthened the background of the United States' response to the "China challenge" and reflected the US's attempt to "compete and win" against China. The competition between China and the United States is getting more and more intense. China does not cause trouble, but it also has to deal with the United States. Just like we will not invade other countries, we must also have nuclear weapon in our hands.
1. Looking at the problems of the United States from the "disqualification effect"
reflects a key indicator of government representation, which is the ability of this government to set common focus and action themes for the whole society, that is, the ability to set "big topics" for the whole society. The representation of a government determines its own vitality. When its ability to set "big issues" for the whole society is insufficient, it will gradually lose its leadership qualifications and must find a solution.
China has strong capabilities in this regard. It is the wish of all Chinese people to achieve the complete reunification of the motherland and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. We have major issues covering the whole society, just goals and clear programs. The United States is not ignorant of its advantages and disadvantages. Trump tried to set "making America great again" as a major issue in American society, but the results are obvious to all. For the United States, the measures it has taken to deal with its shortcomings have harmed China, but it has caused murderous intent to itself.
Here I introduce a new concept "disqualification effect" to observe the problems in the United States. "Disqualification" refers to disqualification. This effect describes a trap that a government may fall into when dealing with the problem of "insufficient ability to set 'big issues' in the whole society, resulting in low representation and weak vitality": the larger the group, the more difficult it is to make the entire group pay attention to something together, and the more difficult it is to set the action theme for the entire group. In this regard, the government that does not match the national demand will divide the large groups and then set up "small issues" to form "temporary stability" and maintain its own representativeness. However, this division will further weaken the government's representativeness in the large group of society. When the dividend of "temporary stability" expires, the government will be forced to re-dividend the divided society and continue to set new issues, forming a vicious cycle and representative dilemma.
If the "disqualification effect" is not scientifically dealt with, the results will not only make a government lose its representation among the majority of people, but will gradually disappear in this country. The government will focus the people's attention in a certain direction to maintain or strengthen its representativeness, and will enter the situation of "hard to cook without rice" - when the concept of "most people" no longer exists and the subject of the work goal has disappeared, how can it still represent the majority of people? To develop new tools for gaming against the United States around the "disqualification effect", it is advisable to first clarify the "five ones":
One expansion: "disqualification effect" not only exists between officials and the people, but also within the government. The core leadership collective "disqualification" within the government will also make it difficult for the government to concentrate and cause policy chaos. The "hawkish" and "doves" that emerged in this situation are not a blooming thought, but a manifestation of insufficient governance capabilities - The Federal Reserve has suddenly "released the hawks" recently. The core goal is not China, but China must be one of the goals and must be prepared for disposal. The Hong Kong stock market, which is more directly affected by the international stock market, has emerged "secondary disasters".
A essence: has a strong ability to set major issues for the whole society, not to "speak nicely" or "speak nicely", but its essence is to make the public have a strong ability to concentrate in a certain direction.
A logic: A government's high or low support rate is the result of the strong or weak ability of this government to set major issues for the whole society, rather than the reason for the strong or weak representativeness of this government.
A case: A series of handling measures by the Bush administration after the 9/11 terrorist attack have successfully focused the attention of the entire American society in the direction it hopes, which is directly reflected in the sharp rise in support.
A conclusion: The "American disease" about issues such as race, gun control, immigration, taxation, "LGBT+" (referring to minorities that are different from most people in society in terms of sexual orientation, gender identity, etc., is not the cause of social division in the United States, but the result of social division in the United States. They have always existed, not new. In recent years, they have attracted attention because the United States is in a mess. At the overall national level, the ability to set major issues for the whole society cannot meet the governance needs. In order to achieve the purpose of changing dynasties or sitting for another four years, the two parties have continuously split the large groups and set new issues again, resulting in the "disqualification effect" becoming increasingly serious.
2. "Snake tail politics" and " futures politics"
Economically, futures are completely different from spot. Spot is a real commodity (merchant) product, and futures are standardized tradable contracts based on certain bulk products such as oil, and financial assets such as bonds, etc. American politics 's characteristics are very similar to futures.
The political language of the United States is very good at putting the cart before the horse, avoiding the important things, and is highly confusing. As for government representation, the US government's "secret skills" to explain its representativeness is the voting election. It seems that is logically self-consistent , but in fact it is full of loopholes. In summary, it can be found in two aspects:
, one is to change the concept and "snake tail politics". The voting election can only reflect the representativeness of "government-generated" to some extent, while the representativeness of the government refers to the representativeness of the period of existence, and under the US system, it refers to at least four years of one term. However, after the United States completed the election, until the next election, there was no law that "when the government's support rate was less than 50%, it should be automatically disbanded and re-electioned" to deal with the problem that the government is no longer universally representative. Other similar mechanisms have complex trigger conditions, leaving great room for space, and are basically useless. Of course, China is not interested in blaming the United States for establishing such laws, but the United States should not use the representation of "government-generated" to fool the public. Looking back, the two parties in the United States have alternately taken over the banker, and there has never been a "snake tail" ending, and the difference is at the beginning - sometimes it is still considered a "tiger head and a miser head", and sometimes it is directly "snake head and a miser head".
The second is historical bombs and "futures politics". In the general election, the US presidential candidate has a pretty good review of his historical achievements. Because too much talk will lead to mistakes, the more you say it, the greater the flaws, and there is no achievement in party struggles in politics - if Biden wants to do "big infrastructure", if you don't do it, you will naturally be attacked by Republican , and what will happen? The Republican Party will also find reasons such as "infrastructure has made the US debt high and increased the tax burden on the people" to denounce it. The greatest practical value of history in the US election is to create bombs that attack the other party, so candidates from both parties are more willing to talk about "others' past and their own future." At this point, the US election has become a "futures politics" that both parties use business methods to instigate voters to place bets on the future as customers. This situation occurred in
, not because Americans are not good, but because of the limitations of the American system. It's okay when the United States stands out, but when facing a country like China with a strong core, stable word, and a super-large scale, the "disqualification effect" brought about by institutional limitations will be amplified, which will catalyze the difficulty of "futures politics".
3. The "disqualification effect" may be the penultimate straw that crushes the US "futures politics"
The last straw that crushes the US "futures politics" is whether China will link this overtake with the issue of institutional competition after completing its overtake against the US, and its initiative is in China's hands. Before this, the United States still has the opportunity to prevent the penultimate straw from falling on its head - it can set its main target of struggle as China, but the specific operation method determines its future and destiny.
The United States has not given up on its efforts.During the campaign, Trump shouted out MAGA (Make America Great Again, making the United States great again), trying to set a big issue in the entire American society, short English sentences that elementary school students can understand, reflecting their team doing their homework and doing their best. However, under the limitations of party struggle politics, the actual effect is still not as good as the "China threat theory". The world's largest power always needs some face, and it is not convenient to admit that the "China threat theory" is an issue that drives its own political operation. It has to describe the unjust violations against China as one of the measures to achieve the issue of "making the United States great again." The "China threat theory" is popular in the United States, which is a manifestation of the lack of leadership and insufficient governance resources of the US government. It is a measure of the US government's lack of ability to set major issues in the whole society. However, this method is tantamount to quench thirst in "futures politics".
- Whether it is the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, if we allow or even promote the "China threat theory" to proliferate in the American public perception and produce a public opinion basis, we must give a plan to "solve threats from China" and promote the realization of the plan goals. However, most of the so-called "China threat" mentioned by the United States, including ideological , industrial upgrading, Taiwan issue, and "human rights" topics, are closely related to China's right to development and survival, and to the national unification and development path. China will not trade with it. If we want to "use strong", the United States does not have the diamond diamond when facing China today. Therefore, the so-called "China threat theory" is really an issue that the United States can start but cannot end. This is a taboo in war.
——Voters in "futures politics" invest in future returns as "customers". If the public generally regards "solving threats from China" as the "benefits" pursued under a certain common issue, the consecutive "small defeats" and ultimate failures that are inevitable on this issue will gradually lead to the public's distrust of a certain party in the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, and will transform into distrust of the two parties on this issue. This distrust will force the US government to re-dividate the groups to set up more sub-items to stabilize the situation, prompting the "disqualification effect" and intensifying social division. After a "timely" group incident, the American people will eventually escalate their distrust of the two parties to distrust of the US political operation mechanism, which is also the penultimate straw that crushes the US "futures politics".
4. My solution to it
The United States still has the opportunity to decide whether the "penalty straw" will fall, but the "last straw" cannot help it.
If the United States is really afraid and continues to quarrel with China in the competition for trade and technology, and let it do it, we can loudly condemn, counter-protect, persuade and promote talks, and continue to focus on ourselves and improve ourselves with the will of a mountain of steel. But I should also advise the United States through official and private channels not to continue to paralyze the nerves of the "China threat theory" and allow it to ferment in American society in order to "falsely make up" its ability to set issues in large groups and its representativeness among the masses. As mentioned earlier, that will put the United States, not China, in a dangerous situation.
If China wants to hold the last straw that crushed the United States' "futures politics" in its hands and watch the United States put the penultimate straw on its head, the premise and basis are that it must try every means to deter the United States from taking risks in the process of gradually becoming more serious and "futures politics" becoming increasingly difficult, and "breaking up the table" with China to fight a hot war or even nuclear war. This requires us to focus on strengthening military construction. In terms of military investment, I can consider gradually transitioning from the past "matching military construction with economic construction" to "double matching of military development with economic development and national scale, to ensure political stability and national rejuvenation and safety", and to improve the scale and quality of strategic forces including nuclear weapons and their delivery devices.
At the same time, China should continue to give full play to its ability to set issues among large groups at the critical period of "traveling a hundred miles apart", focus on realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, firmly grasp the jaw of "strengthening itself", focus on the thoughts, protect the hearts of the people, strive for the economy and strengthen the industry.We must attach great importance to social cognitive guidance, establish a cognitive sovereignty view, stand firm in the position of how the Chinese people view the world, and introduce themselves and express their opinions to the world openly.
Historical torrent rolls forward, day and night. With its indomitable efforts, the Chinese people will surely achieve their goals steadily in the new journey.
Note: The author of this article is Bai Zhongshi, a core member of the "Qin'an Strategic Think Tank", and is the original work of on this platform . In the new year, I wish everyone join hands, overcome the epidemic, curb hegemony, and move towards a better future together.