commodity fell at a high level, the crude oil sector was sold sharply, and crude oil fell by 5% to a new low in the past 10 months; LU and PTA fell by more than 4%, and fuel, palm, asphalt fell by more than 3%. Shanghai tin and rapeseed meal rose by more than 2%.
[Industry News]
EU discusses the ninth round of sanctions against Russia
According to CCTV News, citing the US "Political News. European Edition" report on December 5 local time, European Commission and representatives of EU member states discussed the EU's ninth set of sanctions against Russia. The sanctions projects may reach 180, involving the fields of technology, finance and media. A diplomatic source revealed that a new round of sanctions agreement on Russia may be reached before the EU Foreign Affairs Commission meeting and the EU summit next week.
Federal 12 The probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 79.4%
According to CME's "Federal Observation": the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points in December to the range of 4.25%-4.50% is 79.4%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 20.6%; the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points by February next year is 37.1%, the probability of raising interest rates by 100 basis points is 51.9%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 125 basis points is 11.0%.
China Federation of Logistics and Procurement : The global manufacturing purchasing manager index continued to decline in November
According to CCTV News, the China Federation of Logistics and Procurement announced the global manufacturing purchasing manager index for November today (6th). The index continues to run in a contraction range below 50%, and global economy shows a continued downward trend. The global manufacturing purchasing managers index in November was 48.7%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month and below 50% for two consecutive months. By region, the Asian and American manufacturing purchasing managers index both fell below 50%, and the manufacturing industry is facing contraction pressure; although the European manufacturing purchasing managers index rebounded from last month, it is still below 48%, and the manufacturing industry maintains a weak operating trend; the African manufacturing purchasing managers index has risen slightly and is slightly above 50% for two consecutive months, and the manufacturing industry has recovered.
The total iron ore inventory of China's 45 ports was 134.785 million tons
Statistics The total iron ore inventory of China's 45 ports was 134.785 million tons, increased by 140,000 tons month-on-month last Monday, and the total inventory of 47 ports was 142.105 million tons, an increase of 420,000 tons month-on-month. By region, as the radiating ports in the Northeast, South China and along the river gradually unloaded the goods into the warehouse, the inventory in the region increased to varying degrees; while the inventory in the ports in the East China and North China and decreased steadily month-on-month. The main reason for some port iron ore concentrations in the East China region is that some ports are concentrated in the port, and ships do not have time to enter the warehouse and then transform into port pressure, so the inventory in the region has slightly decreased.
[Institutional Views]
has fallen again! Crude oil fell by 5% to a 10-month low, and institutions were bearish on oil prices
As the G7 countries limit the upper limit on Russian oil prices will be officially implemented, the current limit is US$60. Oil prices continued to remain weak, with crude oil falling nearly 5% to a new low in the past 10 months; LU fell nearly 5%, and fuel and asphalt fell more than 3%.
CICC analysis believes that in order to protect market share in an environment where demand performance is weak and supply risks still exist, OPEC+ chose to maintain the production cut target to wait for fundamentals to improve. In the short term, we need to pay attention to Russia's possible "counter-sanctions" measures on crude oil supply. At the same time, the domestic epidemic prevention optimization policy and the boost to demand expectations from the cooling of temperatures in Europe and the United States may also provide support for the price of crude oil in . Looking further, Russia's sanctions on marine oil products in February 2023 may become an important supply risk waiting for verification in the oil market. The first sea crude oil embargo has provided the market with an opportunity to observe the implementation of EU sanctions, and will also have a certain impact on the results of the OPEC+ production meeting on February 1, 2023. With the implementation of refined oil sanctions as scheduled, we expect Russia's crude oil production to decrease by 1-2 million barrels per day compared with before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and crude oil prices may face certain upward risks.
Founder is also bearish on oil prices in the medium term. After the European and American restrictions on the price of Russian oil and the OPEC+ meeting ended, the favorable support for crude oil supply side was further weakened. The upper limit of the price of oil prices on Europe and the United States to Russia was set at US$60 per barrel, which had limited impact on Russian oil exports. At the same time, the OPEC+ meeting last weekend did not adjust the production policy, and the positive benefits of crude oil supply side were lost. At the same time, the impact of the global economic downturn on oil consumption is still continuing to ferment, further hitting oil prices. Overall, crude oil performance is easy to fall but difficult to rise. For domestic SC crude oil, the recent continuous appreciation of the RMB has put significant pressure on the trend of SC crude oil denominated in RMB. In addition, SC crude oil futures warehouse receipts have increased recently, so the overall performance of SC crude oil is significantly weaker than that of European and American crude oil. In terms of operation, it is recommended to have a short idea. SC crude oil main contract technically pay attention to the support near 530 below.
Huishang Futures: There is still some pressure above silver
As the US inflation falls at a high level, economic growth slows down, Fed rate hike expectation may continue to ease, US dollar index and US bond yield hike may fluctuate and weaken, which will provide momentum for the upward trend of silver prices. In addition, domestic market sentiment has improved, but at present, the US economy has not entered a substantial recession stage. The Federal Reserve's policy is mainly tightening, and there is still some pressure above the silver.
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