Roach said on the "Fast Money" program on the financial website CNBC on the 29th: "As the lagging effects of monetary tightening policies begin to appear, we will definitely fall into recession. These effects have not yet fully emerged."

Stephen Roach, a well-known American economist who served as the Federation and is currently a researcher at at Yale University, said that the economic contraction that the United States in the first half of this year may be a precursor to a more severe recession that will continue until 2024. He said the United States needs a "miracle" to escape the recession.

well-known economic expert Stephen Roach

Roach said on the "Fast Money" program on the financial website CNBC on the 29th: "As the lagging impact of monetary austerity policy begins to appear, we will definitely fall into recession. These impacts have not fully appeared."

Roach said that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has no choice but to tighten the policy by the former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker. In the early 1980s, Volk actively raised interest rates to curb out-of-control inflation. But it would "return to the kind of pain that Volk brought to the U.S. economy to suppress inflation ", and the unemployment rate in the United States rose to more than 10% at that time.

Roach pointed out that the "only way to not repeat the same mistake is if the Federal Reserve led by Powell will follow what he said, focus on discipline, and let substantial federal funds enter the restricted area. That's still far from where we are."

Although the Fed will raise interest rates sharply, the U.S. unemployment rate is still at 3.5%, the lowest since 1969. Things may change when the Bureau of Labor Statistics released August data on Friday. Roach predicts that the unemployment rate will inevitably begin to rise.

He said that the unemployment rate has not risen yet, and the Fed has significantly tightened its currency, indicating how much work it has to be done before, "the unemployment rate may exceed 5%, and hopefully it will not be much higher, but it may reach 6%.

Roqi speculated that the final turning point lies with consumers. The inflation rate remains high, which may make them surrender. Once they shrink their hands and reduce spending, the impact will expand the broader economy and cause pain to the labor market.