Last week, Fed officials continued to make hawkish remarks, but USD index only sorted out at the low level after the previous sharp drop, with a low of 105.34 intraday low and a high of 107.27. The propeller positive line was included that week, ending the four consecutive declines. However, HYCM Industrial Investment analyst believes that the US dollar index is only correcting the previous decline, and the so-called "hawkish" remarks that the Federal Reserve has been clichéd, is not enough to reverse the decline of the US dollar index.
Judging from the speeches of Fed officials last week, it is basically a replica of the Fed's November interest rate resolution. On the one hand, it admits that the Fed will slow down the pace of a single interest rate hike. On the other hand, it also makes this round of interest rate hikes interest rate hikes terminal expectations too high and there is nothing new. After the Federal Reserve's November meeting, especially after the US CPI data in October, expectations for the Federal Reserve's turn continue to ferment. The Federal Reserve needs some new things to restimulate the dollar bulls. The reaction of the
html $0 index last week illustrates this very well. The hawkish speeches of Federal Reserve officials have laid a good atmosphere for the US dollar index, but the US dollar index only stopped falling and the bulls did not have a significant counterattack. HYCM Industrial Investment analysts believe that it may be more appropriate to define the trend of the US dollar index last week as a consolidation of the previous sharp decline.Judging from the performance of US bond , the market's concerns about the US economic recession are increasing, which will also be expected to further enhance the market's expectations for the Fed's monetary policy turn, which will be detrimental to the US dollar index. The 2-year U.S. bond yield hit another week's high, and the 10-year yield has refreshed the worst inversion in 40 years.
Looking ahead this week, the United States is about to usher in the Thanksgiving holiday, and this year's World Cup is also held at this time, which may further reduce the market's trading volume, and the US dollar index is likely to continue to maintain a correction. In other words, the main theme of the market this week will be expected to be: liquidity is sluggish.
Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the meeting in the early hours of Thursday. This may occur in two situations. One situation is that due to the lack of novelty of the Fed, the market continues to have holiday patterns, and overall volatility is limited, which may limit trading opportunities. Another situation is that the Fed's meeting minutes are hawkish or dovish than market expectations, which will be expected to amplify the short-term market volatility. HYCM Industrial Investment analysts recommend not to worry about the risks of trading events at this time. A more stable approach is to wait for the market to recover from rationality before entering the market again.
Technically, the weekly chart of the US dollar index recorded a positive line close to the flattening after a big negative line, and the decline slowed down, or there may still be room for a rebound, but the MA5 on the upper and lower side may continue to provide suppression. As long as it remains below MA20, the decline will be further expanded. The daily chart stabilized and rebounded at the 105.50 line. stochastic indicator returned to the upper part of the neutral area. There may still be room for rebound in the short term. The initial resistance is focused on 107.50, and the further resistance is 109.00. The following supports follow 106.00 and further supports 105.30. Overview, the US dollar index may still have room for further rebound this week, but the upward strength may be restricted.
This article comes from the financial world
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