Iron ore | Threaded Hot Coil | Coking Coal | Nickel & Stainless Steel | Copper | Zinc | Aluminum | Asphalt | Fuel Oil | Pulp | Natural Rubber & No. 20 Glue | Plastics | Methanol | Urea | Steam Coal | PVC | PTA | PP | PF | MEG | EB.

iron ore | Threaded hot rolls | Coking coal coke | Nickel and stainless steel | Copper | Zinc | Aluminum | Asphalt | Fuel oil | Pulp | Natural rubber and No. 20 rubber | Plastics | methanol | urea | thermal coal | PVC | PTA | PP | PF | MEG | EB

Chehongyun

Investment Consulting Professional Certificate Number: Z0012165

Iron ore

【Night Disc Review】

Futures : Futures iron ore i2201 closed at 642.5 yuan/ton, futures iron ore i2205 closed at 642.5 yuan/ton, iron ore 1-5 price difference 0;

Spot: Qingdao Port PB powder price 695-705 yuan/ton; Qingdao Port super special powder price is between 445-450 yuan/ton, and the discount order is about 641.

[Important Information]

1. In November, China imported 104.955 million tons of iron ore sand and its concentrate, an increase of 13.345 million tons from the previous month, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year; from January to November, China imported 1038.361 million tons of iron ore sand and its concentrate, a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year.

2. [China Iron and Steel Association: In late November, key statistics on steel enterprises produced a total of 17.169 million tons of crude steel] China Iron and Steel Association: In late November 2021, key statistics on steel enterprises produced a total of 17.169 million tons of crude steel, 16.3209 million tons of pig iron, and 19.1094 million tons of steel. Among them, the daily output of crude steel was 1.7169 million tons, a decrease of 2.61% month-on-month; the daily output of pig iron was 1.6321 million tons, a increase of by 41.59% month-on-month; and the daily output of steel was 1.9109 million tons, a decrease of 9.47% month-on-month.

3. This week (20211202-20211208), the inventory of the six northern ports totaled 89.173 million tons, and decreased by 1.0388 million tons month-on-month . Among them, traded mines account for 74.53%, and non-trade mines account for 25.47%. The inventory in the North Kowloon Port totaled 105.4381 million tons, a decrease of 1.0711 million tons month-on-month. Among them, traded mines account for 75.53%, and non-trade mines account for 24.47%.

[Trading Strategy]

Yesterday, the spot price fell, and the spot price generally fell between 10-25 yuan. The main tone of the economic meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee has stabilized growth, and the market's expectations for policy improvement have strengthened, thus strengthening the expectation of replenishing the inventory of manufacturers. In addition, the current profit of spot ton of steel is relatively high, resulting in relatively strong raw material prices. From the fundamentals perspective, demand is currently at a low level. The iron and water production in this period was 1.987 million tons, a decrease of 18,100 tons month-on-month, and the reduction is mainly concentrated in North China. Diangang inventory data shows that sales have begun. Some production companies may resume production in December, but the incremental release of this part of demand will be relatively slow, and there is expected that the incremental release will be released in the middle of this month. In terms of supply, both imported ore and domestic ore supply showed annual reductions. In the later period, the space for port inventory accumulation is limited, but the cost center of non-mainstream ore will shift downward, which will suppress the rebound height of ore prices. The index is expected to fluctuate between US$90 and US$120. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market).

threaded hot coil

[Night trading review]

Futures: RB2201 closed at 4528 yuan, RB2205 closed at 4303 yuan; HC2201 closed at 4642 yuan, HC2205 closed at 4427 yuan. The price difference between thread 1 and 5 closed at 225 yuan, and the price difference between hot coil 1 and 5 was 215 yuan. The 01 contract screw roll is 114 yuan, and the 05 contract screw roll is 124 yuan.

Spot: Shanghai Zhongtian thread is 4830 yuan (about 4980 yuan on the folding surface). Shanghai Bengang Hot Coil is 4,820 yuan.

[Important Information]

1. At the end of November, the balance of broad currency (M2) was 235.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.2 and 2.2 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the same period last year respectively; the balance of narrow currency (M1) was 63.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than the end of last month and 7 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the balance of circulating currency (M0) was 8.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year. Net cash injections of 134.8 billion yuan in that month. At the end of November, the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 197.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year. At the end of the month, the balance of RMB loans was 191.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.7% year-on-year, with growth rates of 0.2 and 1.1 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the same period last year respectively.

2. In order to implement relevant requirements and continue to do a good job in air pollution prevention and control in autumn and winter, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "2021-2022 Autumn and Winter Air Pollution Comprehensive Control Plan". In terms of implementation scope, considering the atmospheric environment conditions and regional transmission impacts in various places in autumn and winter, the 2021-2022 autumn and winter attack scope will be based on the "2+26" cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas and the Fenwei Plain cities, and some cities in northern Hebei, northern Shanxi, eastern and southern Shandong, and southern Henan.

implements relevant requirements for de-production in the steel industry. Implement the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on resolving excess capacity and reducing crude steel output in the steel industry, and do a good job in "looking back" on steel capacity reduction. We will do a good job in staggered production during the heating season of the steel industry, guide relevant cities to formulate staggered steel production plans, coordinate and make careful arrangements, inspect steel pressure production and staggered production measures one by one, and supervise the implementation.

3. Preliminary statistics show that the increase in social financing scale in November 2021 was 2.61 trillion yuan, 478.6 billion yuan more than the same period last year and 620.4 billion yuan more than the same period in 2019. Among them, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 1.3 trillion yuan, and increased by 228.8 billion yuan year-on-year compared with ; foreign currency loans issued to the real economy decreased by 13.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.3 billion yuan year-on-year; entrusted loans increased by 3.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.6 billion yuan year-on-year; trust loans decreased by 219 billion yuan, a decrease of 80.3 billion yuan year-on-year; bank acceptance bills for that did not discount decreased by 38.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.2 billion yuan year-on-year; corporate bonds net financing of 410.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 326.4 billion yuan year-on-year; government bonds net financing of 815.8 billion yuan, a increase of 415.8 billion yuan year-on-year; non-financial enterprises domestic stock financing of 412.94 billion yuan, a decrease of 52.3 billion yuan year-on-year.

[Trading Strategy]

Steel Union data shows that the five major varieties in this period have increased production and destocking, and the table needs to rebound, among which the thread output has declined, and the main East China electric furnaces are restricted, inventory is destocked, the table needs to fall, the hot coil production has increased slightly, inventory is accumulated, and the table needs to fall slightly. The average daily output of molten iron in this period was 1.987 million tons (-1.81), continuing to decline. Downstream feedback on the recent overall demand is still good, but the willingness to stock up is not high, which is more resistant to high steel prices. It is expected that the price will be mainly fluctuated in range, with low and high altitude.

Unilateral: Radical people have hot coils at high altitudes, risk points: the demand for hot coils has increased significantly.

arbitrage: None.

(the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

Coking coal coke

[Night trading review]

Futures: J2205 fell on the market, 284 lots closed at 2928 yuan/ton, JM2205 fell, 76 lots closed at 2028 yuan/ton. The price difference between 1-5 coke is 34 yuan. The price difference between coking coal is 1-5 is 44 yuan.

Spot: Rizhao and Qingdao Port coke spots are temporarily stable. Current trade current exchange out of warehouse: the quasi-first-level coke out of warehouse price is 2,750, corresponding to the 01 contract coke warehouse receipt of about 2,990 yuan/ton. The spot coke in Mongolia in Tangshan, Hebei is 2,260 yuan, and a single Mongolian coal warehouse receipt is about 2,260 yuan.

[Important Information]

1. [Coking Coal Place in Origin] The listed price of coking coal in some coal mines in Jining market was reduced by 120-300 yuan/ton, gas coal A9, S0.5 was 1640 yuan/ton and 120 yuan lower, 1/3 coking coal A9, S0.6 was 2130 yuan/ton and 200 yuan lower, and will be implemented from the 9th, and Fertilizer Coal A9, S0.6 will be reduced by 2200 yuan/ton and will be implemented from the 8th, and the current exchange rate will be included in the tax.

2, [Coking coal in the place of origin] On the 9th, the price of coking coal in the market of Luliang increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the low-sulfur main coking coal A12.5S0.5G88 factory cash including tax is 2,200 yuan/ton.

3. [Fenwei Information] Coke in the origin, environmental protection in some parts of Shanxi has affected the start-up load of coke enterprises to remain at a low of around 50%. In addition, the inventory in the factory has been cleared and there are pre-sale orders. With the active inquiry of traders and the steel mills have increased the purchase, some coke enterprises have raised the goods by about 50 yuan/ton from traders, and some traders have accepted it. In the short term, the coke market has gradually stabilized and started to rebound in a small range.

[Trading Strategy]

This issue of Steel Union data shows that the output of five major varieties has rebounded, and the output of independent coke enterprises in coke has rebounded slightly, and the inventory in the factory has been destocked, and the downstream has been restocked. Coking coal inventory has been removed from the coal mines, and downstream storage has been accumulated. Coking enterprises in Shandong have recently started construction and have recovered, and the raw materials have been replenished. Overall coking coal and coke supply and demand both increased, the main coking coal rebounded, and the coking supplement fell. The logic drive is not strong, so it is recommended to wait and see for the time being.

One-sided: None.

arbitrage: no obvious drive, wait and see.

(the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market)

Wang Yingying

Investment consulting business certificate number: Z0014913

Nickel and stainless steel

Prices of nickel and stainless steel fell sharply on Thursday, and the night market stabilized. On the macro level, the number of unemployment claims in the United States continues to decline. The market is paying attention to the FED meeting today and next week's FED meetings. It is expected that FED will accelerate TAPER. Back to the market, overnight lme nickel inventory decreased by 1,068 tons, but the spot premium fell by 53 to US$101, overnight nickel prices fell, and holdings increased slightly, and the current holdings are still at a high level, and the market differences are not over. We think this is mainly related to the low inventory of LME, but it is fundamentally due to China's nickel imports. The prices of stainless steel that supports nickel rise in China have plummeted recently, and nickel iron has also begun to fall. Factors supported by new energy batteries have also changed. Precursor companies have begun to reduce inventory, raw material intermediate products production capacity has begun to start production, and yesterday there was another high-ice nickel iron production, and new technologies have begun to put pressure on nickel prices. We tend to be that nickel prices have entered a downward trend, with traders mainly short-selling operations. Stainless steel companies are in the back coil, prices plummeted, and some companies have begun to reduce production and maintenance. We tend to shift short orders of stainless steel to nickel. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

Copper

[Plate Review]

Yesterday, London copper fluctuated, closing at US$9550.5/ton, down US$1.02.5/ton, a drop of 1.06%, with an increase of 380 lots to 262,000 lots.

[Important Information]

1. The United States will release the highly anticipated CPI data on Friday. BlackRock expects inflation data to exceed Wall Street expectations, and recommends investors hedge against higher inflation.

2. Relevant meeting minutes show that Peruvian government officials failed to reach an agreement on Tuesday to lift the blockade of key distribution channels used by MMG Ltd's Las Bambas copper mine. The dirt road from the mine to the harbor has been blocked for 18 days by residents of Chumbivilcas province, who are negotiating a contract to hire locals as mine drivers. Las Bambas warned Friday that if the situation is not resolved, it will have to suspend production next week because it cannot transport supplies to the mines.

[Trading Strategy]

Macro-wise, the United States will release November cpi data tonight. After the data broke 6 last month, it broke through most people's psychological defenses. The United States began to take inflation as the focus of regulation, so the cpi data tonight is crucial. In terms of fundamentals, the supply side has improved recently, and the downstream cannot accommodate goods at a price of nearly 70,000 yuan, and domestic warehouses may be built this week. LME’s warehouse cancellation receipts and share continue to decline, and the market’s expectations for continued destocking are not strong. LME copper fell 0-3 to US$7.25/ton. From the market, the market has strong expectations for CPI to continue to rise, so it may reflect in advance. If there is a rebound in the day price, you can try to short. The recent operating range of copper is relatively narrow, and the requirements for controlling points are relatively high. Lun Copper pays attention to the pressure near the 40-day moving average.(The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

Zinc

Download production in the short term has a substantial impact on the strong outside and weak inside

[Trading Strategy]

Entering December, Europe, Hunan, Shaanxi and other places that had the early reduction in production gradually had a real impact. Overseas LME inventory is still decreasing, driving the atmosphere to improve. Moreover, the country has once again introduced policies to stimulate consumption of home appliances and automobiles (NDRC), which has a certain degree of positive macroeconomics. At present, due to weak supply and demand in China, the inventory in the three places is stable at around 120,000 tons. The demand side has improved slightly recently. Downstream procurement is on dips. The Ningbo region will definitely lead to terminal enterprises turning to Shanghai to purchase, raising regional discounts, but it is expected that high prices will in turn suppress demand again.

Supply side: According to the SMM survey, SMM China's refined zinc production in November 2021 was 519,500 tons. The continuous decline in processing fees and slow decline in electricity prices have been increasing. Some smelters in Hunan have already stated that they plan to control production and run based on cost pressure, and the output in December may be lower than expected (expected to be 533,000 tons).

Consumer end: The environmental protection situation in North China will be disturbed from time to time before the end of the Winter Olympics , which will inhibit consumption. The spot market is currently in sufficient supply, and the downstream mainly focuses on procurement of urgent needs. The short-term downward space for zinc prices is limited, but in the context of no strong demand, the height is also limited, and the range operation is still the main focus.

unilateral: Due to low inventory and limited production, the upward elasticity is greater than that of domestic, so the foreign market will have a more rhythm in the near future; the demand for downstream terminals in China is poor, and purchasing is urgently needed, resulting in no unilateral trend in the price, so the entire pattern is fluctuating at present, and the short-term long-short contradictions are not obvious, and there will be more upward burrs. It is recommended to operate the range, or use the profit thickening strategy of options ;

arbitrage: The recent import losses are enlarged again, and you can appropriately arrange the remote monthly internal and external reverse sets.

options: range fluctuations, you can sell appropriately for wide-span options speculation (the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market)

aluminum

rising and falling, what is Shanghai aluminum brewing?

[Trading Strategy]

Recent terminal demand and orders, very good. December is a traditional small peak season for downstream demand. Coupled with the demand for price reduction and replenishment, so the outbound data performs well, but overall inventory is higher than the same level in previous years. There have been frequent warm winds at the macro level recently. If aluminum prices cannot rebound effectively at this time, then the upcoming off-season may be more troublesome. Since this plunge, the bullish atmosphere has faded and has returned to the industry-led spot fundamentals, so the off-season pressure is still relatively large.

fundamental situation: At the supply side, the production capacity in the southwest region is gradually slowly resuming production; the demand side is repairing, but the Spring Festival off-season is about to be the off-season; the cost side coal prices are expected to fall again, and the price of alumina continues to fall, and the anode peaks and other resonances are affected by multiple factors, and are moving downward paths;

unilateral: Currently affected by the small peak season of seasonal demand and the order replenishment of downstream enterprises, inventory has declined, and strong fundamental attributes support aluminum prices; from a large cycle point of view, strong demand is short-term seasonal, and the long-term logic is that supply increases demand and demand falls and costs decrease, so keeping the short-term thinking unchanged, and some funds can operate in a maneuverable range, and some long-term short orders can be maintained.

arbitrage: futures and spot arbitrage can be properly participated, and bullets need to be left for the year-end discount; internal and external markets are back-to-back and wait-and-see, avoiding the possibility of lowering tax refunds;

Options: The direction is unclear, and can be used in conjunction with futures and spot tools, and adopt profit thickening strategies, etc. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as basis for entry)

Songyang

Investment Consulting Practice Certificate Number: Z0000551

Asphalt

[Traffic Review]

BU03 contract closed at 2886 points yesterday (-0.21%), and closed at night at 2816 points (-2.43%)

BU06 The contract closed at 2938 points (-0.07%) yesterday, and closed at 2862 points (-2.59%) in the night trading

crude oil, WTI2201 contract 70.94 fell 1.42 USD/barrel or 1.96%; Brent2202 contract 74.42 fell 1.40 USD/barrel or 1.84%. SC2202 rose 2.9 to 472.8 yuan/barrel, and fell 4.4 to 468.4 yuan/barrel in the night market.

[Important Information]

In terms of spot, the domestic asphalt market sentiment is still weak, and downstream urgent needs are mainly used to purchase. The preferential policies for the main refinery in Shandong have been cancelled, the mainstream transaction prices of local refinery markets have been slightly lowered, the demand in the region is slightly stable, and overall transactions are lukewarm; North China has limited resources, and some traders' quotations have risen steadily and slightly, and the price difference with Shandong has narrowed significantly. (Longzhong). Currently, the mainstream spot price in East China is 3100-3250 yuan/ton, 2850-3070 yuan/ton in Shandong, and mainstream range in South China is 3100-3340 yuan/ton.

refined oil benchmark price, yesterday Shandong local refining gasoline price -86 to 7827 yuan/ton; 0# diesel price -151 to 7065 yuan/ton.

[Trading Strategy]

There is no significant contradiction in the short-term asphalt fundamentals. After the crude oil weakens at the cost side, the market price weakens sharply, and the spot side also lacks momentum to increase the rise. Oil prices have a large volatility at the current level, and it is difficult to have a trend of asphalt, and the market is mainly weak and fluctuating. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

Fuel oil

FU05 contract closed at 2675 points yesterday (+1.75%), and closed at night at 2642 points (-1.23%)

LU02 contract closed at 3513 points (+1.12%) yesterday, closed at 3479 points (-0.97%) in the night trading

Singapore low-sulfur 380 price is 576.17 US dollars/ton, high-sulfur 380 price is 415.00 US dollars/ton, high-low-sulfur price difference is 161 US dollars/ton, diesel-low-sulfur price difference is 70 US dollars/ton. swap market, low sulfur Jan/Feb monthly difference is 12 US dollars/ton, high sulfur monthly difference is -0.75 US dollars/ton.

overseas market, fuel oil ship cargo sent to Asia in Europe is expected to increase by nearly 200,000 tons month-on-month to 406,000 tons, mainly due to the increase in fuel oil procurement of Sri Lanka and Pakistan respectively. The former plans to purchase a batch of 16,000 tons of low-sulfur ships for local refueling markets by the end of December, while the latter plans to purchase a batch of 65,000 tons and 50,000 tons of high-sulfur fuel oil in early and late January. .

3 In terms of internal trading , FU05's internal and external price difference is 1.4 US dollars, LU02's internal and external price difference is -5 US dollars. The price difference between low sulfur and low sulfur has fallen again, and the low sulfur structure in the Singapore market remains strong. Against the backdrop of wide fluctuations in the price of crude oil, it is recommended to go long for low sulfur at low temperatures and hedge against crude oil or high sulfur. (The above views are for reference only and will not be used as a basis for entering the market)

pulp

[Review of the previous day]

Futures Market : High level fall. The main SP contract of 01 closed at 5912 points, down -130 points or -2.15%.

Spot wood pulp market: Paper mills in Hebei are starting stable, and there are not many sources of goods available for sale, and the quotation is compiled at a high level. The market tax-inclusive reference price: Ba'an 4800-4850 yuan/ton. The spot market of imported Russian pulp is not much. Affected by the high consolidation of the pulp futures market, the operators sold at low prices, and the price was reduced by 200 yuan/ton on the futures market. The Wuting market tax-inclusive reference price is 5,800 yuan/ton ( Zhuochuang Information )

Spot cultural paper: Shandong Dezhou Fangyuan Paper Industry Light Paper trade is mediocre, and it is discussed one by one.Currently, the cash reference price of more than 53g light paper with tax in cash is 5,600 yuan/ton. The orders in the double tape paper market in Foshan, Guangdong are still acceptable and the prices are sorted out. Currently, the market price of shipping tax-inclusive for dealers: 58g Yunbao double film rolls are about 5,600 yuan/ton. (Zhuochuang Information)

[Important Information]

quoted Vietnam's "Business Daily": From January to November, Vietnam's timber and wood products exports reached US$13.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of +20%. The Import and Export Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam estimated that the export volume of timber and wood products in November reached US$1.15 billion, a month-on-month increase of +20.9%, but a year-on-year decrease of -7.4%. Among them, the export volume of wood products reached US$840 million, a month-on-month increase of +35.4%, but a year-on-year decrease of -17.3%. The export volume of wood and wood products in the first 11 months of this year reached US$13.2 billion, an increase of +20% year-on-year. Among them, the export volume of wood products reached US$9.9 billion, an increase of +16.6% year-on-year.

[Trading Strategy]

Domestic daily paper production line operation rate decreased slightly by -0.8% month-on-month, and production lines in Qinhuangdao, Hebei Province were shut down for maintenance. The main SP force 01 contract is waiting and watching, paying attention to the support at the early low of 5810 points. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

Natural rubber and No. 20 rubber

[Review of the previous day]

RU Related: RU main force 05 contract closed at 14515 points, up +140 points or +0.97%; Japan's main force 05 contract closed at 228.7 points, down -7.8 points or -3.30%. As of 12:00 on the day before yesterday, Yunnan WF closed at 13,250 yuan/ton, the second landmark closed at 12,200-12,300 yuan/ton, Thailand cigarettes closed at 16,200-16,350 yuan/ton, and Vietnam 3L closed at 12,850 yuan/ton.

NR related: NR main 02 contract closed at 11335 points, up +160 points or +1.43%; Singapore TF03 contract closed at 171.4 points, down -2.0 points or -1.15%. As of 18:00 the day before yesterday, the Qingdao Free Trade Zone rubber market fell by 5-15 US dollars/ton. cigarette sheets ship cargo closed at US$1960-1980/ton, Thai standard spot or near-port cargo closed at US$1740-1750/ton, Horse standard spot or near-port cargo closed at US$1730-1740/ton, Thai mixed spot or near-port cargo closed at US$1760-1770/ton.

synthetic gel related: North China Butan 1502 quoted 12250-12400 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China Qilu Shunding price is 15,000 yuan/ton. The price of East China butadiene is 4900-5100 yuan/ton.

[Important News]

quoted China Rubber Magazine: On December 7, Bridgestone Company announced that it has decided to merge two radial tire companies in China into one company in accordance with the medium-term business development plan (2021-2023), and close Bridgestone (Huizhou) Tire Company at the end of 2021, and integrate its production capacity into Bridgestone (Shenyang) Tire Co., Ltd. Bridgestone (Huizhou) Tire Co., Ltd. is planned and designed with an annual output of 1.735 million all-steel heavier radial tires, and is constructed in two phases. The second phase was completed in May 2011. As of November 30, 2021, the output of the Huizhou factory was 2,800 items per day and the number of employees was 518.

[Trading Strategy]

Today is the Thai Constitution Day, and the local market is closed. Citing third-party statistics, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire production lines closed at 64.3%, and the operating rate of semi-steel tires closed at 63.8%, with an overall year-on-year (relative) production cut of -8.0%, and marginal production increased for the fifth consecutive week. In November, the average daily commercial housing transaction area in 30 cities in China closed at 13.6 million square meters, a year-on-year (relatively) decrease of -12.9%, a marginal decline for the sixth consecutive month. The RU main 05 contract should try a large amount, and set a stop loss at the early high of 14290 points; the NR main 02 contract should try a large amount, and set a stop loss at the early high of 11180 points. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

Plastic

Market review:

Plastic fluctuations were weak yesterday, and L2201 closed at 8460 points, down 0.2%. L fell in the night trading, and L2201 closed at 8368 points, down 1.09%.

Spot market:

Yesterday, most of the market prices fell, while the North China region fell by 50 yuan/ton in a linear manner; the East China region fell by 50 yuan/ton in a linear manner; the South China region fell by 50 yuan/ton in a linear manner; the South China region fell by 50 yuan/ton in a linear manner. The mainstream price of domestic LLDPE is between 8650-9100 yuan/ton.

Important information:

1) Today, the two oil inventory was 660,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons.

2) This week's PE start load was 84.97%, down 1.52 percentage points from last week. In the downstream, the start of agricultural film industry fell by 2 percentage points to 54%, the start of packaging industry rose by 2 percentage points to 58%, the start of pipe industry fell by 2 percentage points to 51%, and the rest of the start of construction remained stable. Currently, the mainstream start of construction in downstream industries is 50%-58%.

Trading Strategy:

is currently valued at a neutral level, with temporary maintenance increasing recently, and maintenance at a relatively high level. The downstream agricultural film starts to weaken. There is little fundamental contradiction, demand is expected to weaken, and fluctuations are weak. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

methanol

[Taiwan Review]

Yesterday during the day, affected by the sharp drop in spot prices, the main methanol contract increased its position and fell, with a low of 2571; at night, opened volatile and strengthened due to the rise of thermal coal , and finally closed at 2616 (-0.19%).

[Spot Quotes]

Yesterday, the inland methanol spot market continued to weaken, and the downstream continued to be unoptimistic about the future market, and transactions were limited. The northwest and south line is quotation of 2,230 yuan/ton, the north line is quotation of 2,200-2,250 yuan/ton, the Shandong region market price is 2,650-2,660 yuan/ton, the quotation of 2,520-2,550 yuan/ton, the quotation of 2,500 yuan/ton in Hebei, the quotation of 2,350-2,380 yuan/ton in Guanzhong, the quotation of 2,550-2,750 yuan/ton in the southwest region, and the quotation of 2,600-2,700 yuan/ton in Yunnan and Guizhou.

port spot market operates weakly, with an overall reduction of 20 yuan/ton. The operators are mainly cautious in operating. The market price of Taicang in the region is 2680-2700 yuan/ton, the market price of 2760-2800 yuan/ton in the region is 2760-2800 yuan/ton in the region, and the overall market shipment is average.

[Important Information]

Recently, the European methanol market continued to rise. European methanol reference price is between 360-364 euros/ton, and the recent and far-month quotations are actively rising.

[Trading Strategy]

As the futures market fell sharply, the spot wait-and-see sentiment was strong, the market transaction atmosphere was limited, and upstream inventory increased significantly. In addition, transportation was blocked, the manufacturer significantly lowered the ex-factory price, but terminal demand has not yet increased significantly.

As the price of coal at the pit continues to fall, the cost gradually moves downward, and it is expected that the spot futures of methanol will continue to fluctuate weakly. The later stage will focus on the trends of coal and crude oil. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

Urea

Yesterday, the main contract of urea futures closed at 2340 yuan/ton, +1.74%, with a position of +18,000 lots to 51,800 lots, and the factory warehouse basis was +10 yuan/ton. In the spot market, Shandong Xiaozhong Granules mainstream ex-factory 2370-2390 yuan/ton, and Linyi receiving price is around 2440 yuan/ton. Shanxi Jincheng small particles for shipping quotations of 2340-2350 yuan/ton, and Yuncheng small particles for reference 2300-2320 yuan/ton. The main factory price of Henan small particles is 2380-2400 yuan/ton, and the main factory price of Hebei small particles is 2350-2360 yuan/ton.

Longzhong Information data shows that the domestic urea operation rate this week was 62.97%, a month-on-month-on-month-on-month-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year. The enterprise inventory was 845,000 tons, up 18,000 tons month-on-month and up 403,600 tons year-on-year; the port inventory was 131,000 tons, up -31,000 tons month-on-month. The operating rate of compound fertilizer equipment was 37.99%, up 3.97 percentage points month-on-month, and the inventory of compound fertilizer enterprises was 541,500 tons, up 13,600 tons month-on-month. The operating rate of melamine device is 75.85%, up 0.54 percentage points month-on-month.

yesterday's spot market was mainly stable, and some delivery factory warehouses slightly raised their factory quotations. The current natural gas supply is better than expected, and the parking time of some gas head devices is continuously delayed, and the domestic daily output remains at around 140,000 tons, which is significantly higher than the year-on-year. The overall downstream inventory level is lower than in previous years, and some demand still needs to be released. The market's views on the future market are differentiated, and some businesses have a strong sense of oppression. In the short term, production costs have certain support for the market.As the production time of winter storage, light reserve fertilizers and compound fertilizers narrows, some demands may be further released. However, after the supply and demand improve, the subsequent raw material coal prices may gradually weaken. With exports blocked and the supply guarantee policy continues, in the medium and long term, we believe that the center of gravity of urea prices may fluctuate and move downward. Continue to pay attention to raw material prices, changes in domestic operating rates and policy guidance. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

Steel coal

【Traffic review】

Yesterday during the day, the main contract of thermal coal futures fluctuated narrowly within is the main one. At night, the price of spot sentiment was weak and stable yesterday afternoon, and the shipping cost decreased slightly at the opening, and finally closed at 685.2 (+1.54%).

[Spot aspect]

As the price of coal at the pit mouth continues to fall, the shipping cost is reduced, but traders are cautious in operating based on the overall downward trend of the market and are not very enthusiastic about shipping. The port market quotation is basically the same, the market quotation of 5,500 kcal thermal coal is 1,130-1,170 yuan/ton, and the market quotation of 5,000 kcal thermal coal is 950-1,010 yuan/ton. According to traders, although the main production areas generally lower prices, the market downturn and railway plans to give priority to ensuring supply, the low-cost supply for shipments to the port is limited. Most traders with spot goods in the port have high-cost supply, and some traders have relatively strong quotations. In terms of demand, terminal inquiry purchases have increased slightly, but the overall demand is still limited, and procurement of urgent needs continues to lower prices. Overall, there is a certain gap between buyers and sellers reporting and returning the market, and the market transactions are stalemate.

[Important Information]

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, the national coal prices continued to fall last week (November 29 to December 5), among which the prices of coking coal, thermal coal and No. 2 smokeless block coal were RMB 1,338, RMB 1,040 and RMB 1,460 per ton, respectively, down 3.3%, 1.9% and 0.9% respectively. .

[Trading Strategy]

Recently, snow has fallen in the main production areas of Inner Mongolia, but the impact on output is small. The basic average daily output is still above 2.6 million tons, while sales volume has dropped sharply to 2.1 million tons, the production and sales gap has widened, pit-hole inventory has further accumulated, and the pressure of downward pit-hole price has increased. The traffic volume of the Daqin Line continued to remain at 1.3 million tons, and the Bohai Rim Port was transferred to a high level, with the overall inventory falling to around 20.8 million tons, and the overall inventory still exceeded the same level in the past three years. The daily consumption of power plants in coastal areas continued to rebound seasonally, and it was not negative year-on-year, but the growth rate began to expand and inventory continued to accumulate. The national power plant inventory increased by about 17 million tons year-on-year, and the number of days available reached 24 days. Recently, terminal demand has been slightly released. Traders with downstream orders in the early stage have begun to fill short orders. Spot is temporarily weak and stable. Due to the excessive discount on the market, the probability of a sharp decline in the short term is relatively low. However, in the medium and long term, the overall regional supply surplus situation in the market has further evolved, and the rebound is mainly short-selling. Focus on policy trends. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

PVC

Market review:

PVC showed a volatile trend yesterday, V2201 closed at 8339 points, up 0.43%, night trading PP fluctuated, V2201 closed at 8309 points, down 0.36%.

Spot market:

Yesterday, the point price in East China was the main one, the forward pre-sale source of goods was about 500, the basis of spot and mainstream sags was about 700, and the five mainstream trading range of the market was between 8,800-8,870 yuan/ton.

Important information:

1) Longzhong Information has 31 sample companies, involving 15.41 million tons of production capacity. The operating rate in this cycle (20211203-1209) is 78.89%, an increase of 0.01% over last week.

2) According to Zhuochuang Information data, the overall PVC start load was 76.55%, a decrease of 1.44 percentage points month-on-month; among which the PVC start load of calcium carbide method was 79.53%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points month-on-month; the PVC start load of ethylene method was 65.55%, a decrease of 3.56 percentage points month-on-month. The losses caused by parking and maintenance (including long-term parking companies) this week were 19,110 tons, a decrease of 0.96 million tons from last week.

Trading strategy:

Recently, the start of calcium carbide has rebounded significantly, the recovery space of PVC starts has increased, there is expectation of increasing PVC supply, and there is expectation of seasonal weakness on the demand side. On the cost side, calcium carbide prices turned to decline, cost support weakened, PVC foreign market prices fell, and short-term PVC fluctuated and was short. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

PTA

[Taiwan Review]

Yesterday, the PTA futures contract rose strongly, the TA2201 contract closed at 4706 (+132/+2.89%) on the day, the TA2205 contract closed at 4740 (+104/+2.24%) on the day, and the TA2201 contract fluctuated and closed at 4690 (-16/-0.34%) on the night market; the TA2205 contract closed at 4724 (-16/-0.34%). The main port supply basis 01 contract has a premium of 5 yuan/ton, and the basis remains stable. The spot transaction price is around 4590-4615 yuan/ton. The premium of 01 contract has a premium of 5-10 in December. The transaction price of MOPJ in January was US$690.75/ton CFR, and the estimated price of PX was US$834/ton CFR, an increase of US$2/ton month-on-month.

[Important Information]

1. This week's TA operation rate was 71.7%, a week-on-month decrease of 4.1%, a week-on-month decrease of 84.8%, a week-on-month decrease of 0.2%, and a week-on-month start of comprehensive construction of Jiangsu and Zhejiang bombs was 80%, a week-on-month decrease of 1%. The operation rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms and printing and dyeing was 64%, and the week-on-month remained the same.

2. Yesterday, the production and sales of polyester silk in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained weak, and the average estimated to be around 3:30 p.m. was around 40% and the average production and sales of polyester short-term production and sales of 80%.

[Trading Strategy]

In terms of supply, the PTA operation rate under centralized maintenance is relatively low, the circulation source of PTA in large factories is tight, and the spot basis is relatively strong; in the downstream, the start of polyester remains low, domestic sales orders are deserted, export sales are decentralized, terminals continue to accumulate inventory, TA processing fees rebound, and the destocking rate increases this month, but supply and demand drive downward, and the rebound space on the market may be limited. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

PP

Market review:

PP showed a volatile trend yesterday, PP2201 closed at 8012 points, down 0.1%, the night trading PP fluctuated weakly, and PP2201 closed at 7981 points, down 0.39%.

Spot market:

Yesterday, the mainstream transaction price of East China wire drawing was 8100 in coal, which remained stable month-on-month. The mainstream oil-made transaction price is 8100, -20 month-on-month. The mainstream transaction price of PDH system is 8100, -10 month-on-month.

Important information:

1) Today, the two oil inventory was 660,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons.

2) This week, the domestic polypropylene device starts a load of 89.50%, down 0.87 percentage points from last week. This week, the domestic production loss of polypropylene equipment (including parking maintenance and load reduction) was about 69,100 tons, an increase of 5,800 tons from last week.

3) This week, the downstream start of BOPP rose by 1 percentage point to 65%, and the start of construction of the plastic and injection molding industries remained stable.

4) Shaoxing Sanyuan 300,000 tons PP device will be repaired on December 9 and will be planned to drive on December 29.

Trading Strategy:

valuation has been restored to a neutral level. There is currently little fundamental contradiction. Some new devices are put into production, and the short-term fluctuations are relatively weak. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

PF

[Taiwan Review]

Yesterday, the main contract of PF futures opened low and closed high, PF2201 closed at 6788 (+114/+1.71%) on the day, and the PF2205 contract closed at 6826 (+102/+1.52%) on the day; night trading fluctuations were consolidated PF2201 closed at 6760 (-28/-0.41%) and PF2205 closed at 6790 (-36/-0.53%). In terms of spot prices, prices have risen steadily. Jiangsu and Zhejiang 1.4D mainstream 6800-7000 yuan/ton are shipped out of the factory or short-term delivery, Fujian 1.4D mainstream 6800-6850 yuan/ton are shipped out, Shandong and Hebei are delivered at 6900-7100 yuan/ton.

[Important Information]

1. This week's polyester operating rate was 84.8%, a week-on-month decrease of 0.2%. Jiangsu and Zhejiang integrated bombs were started at 80%, a week-on-month decrease of 1%. Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms and printing and dyeing operating rate was 64%, and the week-on-month remained the same.

2. Yesterday, the production and sales of polyester silk in Jiangsu and Zhejiang fell, and the average estimated to be around 3:30 pm was around 40%. The average production and sales of polyester-spinned polyester are 56%.

[Trading Strategy]

Spot price has increased and volume has shrunk, factories have strong intention to sell goods, some companies have tight shipments in terms of supply, demand is not optimistic due to poor orders, supply and demand are not driven upward, and prices are weak and fluctuating. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

MEG

[Taiwan Review]

Yesterday, the main contract of MEG2201 fluctuated and closed at 4873 (+29/+0.6%), and the night trading fluctuation was weak, closing at 4883 (-54/-1.09%). In the morning, the MEG spot basis 01 contract will add 15-20 yuan/ton, the daily transaction price will be 4870-4950 yuan/ton, and the supply 01 contract will add 10-20 yuan/ton in January. In January, ship cargo will be sold around US$640-641/ton.

[Important Information]

1. This week, the overall construction load of domestic ethylene glycol was 56.05%, a week-on-month decrease of 5.61%, of which the construction load of coal-to-ethylene glycol was 43.71%, a week-on-month increase of 1.19%; the polyester operating rate was 84.8%, a week-on-month decrease of 0.2%, and the comprehensive construction of Jiangsu and Zhejiang plus bombs was 80%, a week-on-month decrease of 1%. The operation rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms and printing and dyeing was 64%, and the week-on-month remained the same.

2. Yesterday, the production and sales of polyester silk in Jiangsu and Zhejiang fell, and the average estimated to be around 3:30 p.m., with the average production and sales of straight-spinning polyester short-spinning and sales of 80%.

[Trading Strategy]

In terms of supply, MEG equipment maintenance is concentrated, oil-to-coal-to-profit profit loss, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Shaanxi Weihua and Jianyuan ethylene glycol drives were delayed, Shenhua Yulin equipment is still under debugging, some devices are restarted and delayed, the overall MEG operating rate remains low, short-term MEG port inventory is low, supply and demand are tight, the basis is strengthening, and the pattern of strong near and weak far remains. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

EB

[Taiwan Review]

Yesterday, the main contract of EB2201 opened high and closed low on the day, closing at 7863 (-188/-2.34%), and the night market fluctuated strongly, closing at 7934 (+71/+0.9%). In terms of spot, the spot self-picking price of styrene in Jiangsu market was 7970-8070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton month-on-month, and the spot self-picking price of styrene in South China market was 8200-8300 yuan/ton month-on-month, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton month-on-month, and the styrene in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei market was 7950-8050 yuan/ton month-on-month, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton month-on-month. In terms of paper goods, the assessment was 7915-7940 in December, and the assessment was 7860-7885 in January. In terms of foreign markets, the CFR Chinese styrene market closed at US$1065-1075/ton, down US$15/ton month-on-month, and the pure benzene CFR Chinese closing price was US$900-910/ton, down US$15/ton month-on-month.

[Important Information]

1. The total inventory of styrene East China main port increased by 3,900 tons to 83,000 tons on the week-on-month. The number of spot commodities in the main port of East China rose by 2,800 tons to 57,200 tons. The total inventory of production enterprises increased by 5,300 tons to 125,100 tons per week on a month-on-month basis.

2, the trade volume of pure benzene ports was 168,000 tons, up 7,600 tons on the weekly basis and 4.74% on the month-on-month basis.

[Trading Strategy]

Jiangsu terminal environmental inspection affects ship unloading and picking up, the inventory in the upper and middle streams rebounded overall, the load of refining in some Shandong has declined, and the daily production of pure benzene has been reduced, but the import volume of pure benzene in November is expected to be high, the styrene maintenance device has restarted, and the cost support for styrene is not strong, and the price is still downward pressure as production is about to be fulfilled under the pressure of accumulated inventory. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)