Recently, The U.S. House of Representatives officially passed the Chip Act. According to the outline of the U.S. Chip Act published on the official website of the Senate, a total of US$52.7 billion will be provided for subsidies from 2022 to 2026, of which 39 billion will be used to build, expand or update US wafer factories, 11 billion will be used to research and development of semiconductor , 2 billion will be used to fund fields such as education, defense and innovation-related, 500 million will be used to build international information, communication technology security, and semiconductor supply chains with foreign governments, 200 million will be used to increase the labor force in the semiconductor industry, and provide 25% tax exemption for local semiconductor manufacturing.
is very obvious. Under this background, the global competition landscape for chip semiconductors will become increasingly fierce, and domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry will inevitably continue to accelerate.
At this stage, the structural differentiation of semiconductor demand side is still obvious, and consumer demand represented by mobile phones and PCs is still weak, and the sub-demand demand for automobiles, servers, photovoltaics and other segments is relatively stable. The overall industrial chain inventory is at a high level, and the pressure of destocking of semiconductors, especially consumer semiconductors, has increased. It is expected that the peak season may be unsustainable in 22Q3.
At the same time, on the demand side, the demand for consumer side such as mobile phones and PCs is still weak, and the demand for semiconductors such as servers/automotives is strong.
1 mobile phone: Q2 global mobile phone shipments year-on-year -9%, and the inventory in the industry chain is relatively high. Qualcomm expects mobile phone shipments to decline by mid-single digit percentage in 2022, and the demand for mid- and low-end mobile phones in the second half of 2022 is low. MediaTek expects global mobile phone shipments to be -6%~-11% year-on-year.
PC: The industry prosperity driven by the epidemic has ended, with global shipments in 22Q2 -14.73% year-on-year/ -11.43% month-on-month. Qualcomm expects that the overall global PC TAM will drop by about 10% in 2022.
Auto/ New Energy Vehicle : In April and May the epidemic affected the stability of the automobile supply chain and the purchase of residents. The sales of new energy vehicles in June continued to grow at a high month-on-month. In July, most new energy vehicle manufacturers sold month-on-month growth .
server: chip shortage is gradually alleviated, Xinhua's monthly revenue data 22M6 continues to grow year-on-month, and Insider expects the month-on-month growth rate of server shipments in 22Q3 to reach double digits, and 22H2 has increased by 22% compared with 22H1.
Meta raises the annual expected median Capex to US$32 billion, and Oracle said it expects 6 new cloud service areas to be added to FY2023 worldwide.
. From the supply side, the output of production capacity in 2022 may be delayed. The delivery time for overseas equipment is extended, and the import of equipment from mainland production lines may be restricted.
logical side, the overall capital expenditure plan in 2022 is progressing as scheduled. Although the current consumer demand is weak and the capacity utilization rate of some foundries is loose, TSMC expects capital expenditure to be close to the lower limit of the guidance in 2022, and UMC keeps the capital expenditure guidance unchanged.
storage terminal, Micron lowered its capital expenditure plan for 2023; on the equipment side, overseas equipment delivery time is extended, and the United States may restrict equipment exported to domestic production lines 14nm and below. In the short term, domestic wafer factories may have the possibility of delaying production capacity output, but it has also accelerated the pace of domestic equipment substitution to a certain extent.
Here, based on the above analysis, it is recommended that you actively pay attention to high-quality companies in related fields, such as Gigabit Innovation , Jingfang Technology , etc.
1) Zhaoyi Innovation 603986
fundamentals: The company is a leading design company in the niche storage and microcontroller market in the domestic semiconductor field. After years of accumulation, it has completed a comprehensive layout in the memory field and entered the widely used MCU market.
company takes the edge-end application of the Internet of Things as the core to layout products and overall solutions such as memory, microcontrollers, sensors, etc., with rich product matrix, and relying on technical accumulation, first-mover advantages and scale effects, it has become a leader in the domestic NOR Flash field, and has become a 32 MCU leader in China with "hard product strength + rich ecosystem".
Under the wind of domestic substitution, with the further expansion and mass production of the company's new product line, as well as the continuous breakthrough of products in the industrial and automotive fields, the company's revenue scale will further increase, and its market share is expected to continue to expand. According to technical analysis, this stock has fallen from the high of 233.40 to the low point of 111.67. The stock price adjustment cycle is long and the decline is large. The risk release is relatively sufficient. You can keep track with a medium-term thinking.
2) Jingfang Technology 603005
fundamentals: The company's main business is the packaging and testing business in the field of sensor . The main products are chip packaging , chip testing, chip design, etc. It is the first professional packaging and testing service provider in mainland China and the second largest in the world that can provide WLCSP mass production services for image sensing chips.
benefited from the rapid development of electrification and intelligence. As the only company in the mainland that has the ability to seal and test CSP with automotive specifications, Jingfang Technology is an elastic target that benefits the core of the upstream of automotive intelligence. It is expected that the company's automobile revenue will increase rapidly, and the automotive line will be mass-produced, and the production capacity will still be in short supply, and further growth will be expected in the future.
According to technical analysis, this stock, as the former leader in hype, has a very terrifying historical stock and has a strong memory of the leading stock. At the same time, since the low point of 16.73 was born, the low point has been rising and the high point has also been rising. During this period, with the obvious characteristics of rising in volume and shrinking and falling, volume-price relationship is relatively healthy. In the short term, it is currently in the shrinkage retracement, and it is recommended to track it along the position near the moving average.
Risk warning: The chip industry is oversupply, and the company's performance growth is lower than expected.
Reference materials:
1.20220803-Ping An Securities-Zhaoyi Innovation-AIoT territory continues to expand, and the storage leader dances with the wind of MCU
2.20220411-Guosheng Securities-Jingfang Technology-2021 performance is increasing, and Automobile Electronics is expected to start a new round of growth
[Disclaimer] The above content is for your reference and learning and is not used as a basis for trading. You are responsible for your own risks based on this! Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market. The views of this article were edited and compiled by Jiufang Zhitou Nie Ying (Registration number: A0740621110001)
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