National Day holiday has ended, and the latest forecast data for my country's refined oil prices have been released. According to the reference rate of crude oil change of the price adjustment reference for the eighth working day of price adjustment, it can be seen that the latest forecast is expected to enter a stranded state, which means that the forecast trend of this round of refined oil prices has undergone a new change, which is specifically manifested as a transition from the original downward to a "rise". Since the increase is less than 50 yuan/ton, it is currently in a stranded state, which indicates that the next round of price adjustment is possible. The specific price adjustment results need to wait for the tenth working day of this round of pricing cycle to be announced before they can be known.
Therefore, if only according to the current oil price forecast trend, the next round of refined oil price adjustment in China may be stranded and achieve the first stranded this year, because the cumulative increase is less than 50 yuan/ton. According to the provisions in the " Oil Price Management Measures for Petroleum Prices ", it is obvious that the price adjustment standard is not met, so will not be adjusted, and will be included in the next price adjustment or offset, and it is very likely to break the pattern of zero stranded price adjustment of refined oil since this year. At that time, the prices of No. 92, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel remain unchanged, and the cost of filling a box of 50L gasoline is the same as the current one.
In addition, the reason why the next round of domestic price adjustments is possible is that it is actually based on the prediction that the price of international crude oil futures has been rising continuously, achieving "five consecutive increases" in five trading days, with a cumulative increase of more than 15%. The price of WTI and Brent crude oil futures has been rising all the way. In terms of its main factors, the positive driving force of OPEC+'s production cuts, the sharp reduction of index , and the significant decline in US crude oil inventory last week have prompted expectations of a continued rebound in international oil prices. Of course, the OPEC+ production cut measures are a response to the weakness of the global major central banks and the central banks hike rate hikes and the global economy. The main purpose is to curb the continued decline in oil prices and safeguard the self-interest of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Take the latest October 7 as an example. International oil prices have once again risen sharply. As of the closing of the trading day (7th), the price of light crude oil futures delivered on the New York Mercantile Exchange in November rose by US$4.19, closing at US$92.64 per barrel, an increase of 4.74%; the price of London Brent crude oil futures delivered in December rose by US$3.50, closing at US$97.92 per barrel, an increase of 3.71%. Obviously, WTI and Brent crude oil futures have risen significantly, especially the Brent crude oil futures price approaching US$100 per barrel, which basically replenishes the previous decline for , which is basically consistent with OPEC+'s initial expectations. At the same time, the risk of escalation in the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the shortage of energy supply faced by Europe in winter have also stimulated the strengthening of international oil prices. Therefore, the strengthening of international oil prices is the result of multiple positive factors.
In other words, in the next few trading days, international oil prices will not rule out the possibility of continued rise. Affected by this, it is expected that the crude oil change rate for my country's refined oil price adjustment reference will expand within the positive range and may break through the stranded threshold of 50 yuan/ton, achieving the "twelfth increase" this year. In short, the stranded or rising price adjustment in my country will depend on the last two working days remaining in this round of pricing statistics cycle and whether the corresponding international oil prices will continue to rise. If international oil prices continue to soar, then my country's oil prices are likely to rise. On the contrary, if the overall operation of international crude oil futures is relatively eased or a significant correction is initiated, then my country's refined oil price adjustment will be stranded. Therefore, the specific price adjustment results of this round need to continue to pay attention to the latest changes in overseas markets.
To sum up, affected by OPEC+'s decision to cut production by 2 million barrels per day from November, the latest forecast for domestic oil prices has entered a stranded state. Based on the current market performance, it is possible that the next round of price adjustments will be stranded or rise. As for how to do it, we need to continue to pay attention to the changes in the main indicators in the remaining 1 or 2 working days.
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