Abstract: Recently, international oil prices have shown an upward trend due to the decline in US crude oil production, the decline in Iran's oil exports, and the extension of the production cut agreement for OPEC . On July 9, domestic refined oil prices will be adjusted for the 14th year, and are expected to enter the "7 yuan era"?
|Iran's oil exports have dropped significantly
[China Oil Network] News: Although China has never stopped importing Iranian crude oil, relying on China alone is not enough to digest Iran's oil exports. Fannon, assistant secretary of state for energy affairs at the U.S. State Department, said that U.S. oil sanctions on Iran have been successful and will continue.
Since the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement in May last year, it has gradually imposed sanctions on Iran. In November 2018, the United States restarted energy sanctions on Iran. In order to stabilize the market, it gave immunity to eight economies, including China, South Korea and India. However, since May this year, the immunity has lost its effect and the United States seeks to lower Iranian oil exports to zero.
According to Reuters , under the influence of US sanctions, Iran's crude oil exports had dropped to 300,000 barrels per day or less in June. According to industry sources and Refinitiv estimates, Iran's crude oil exports in June will be lower than 400,000 barrels to 500,000 barrels per day in May. You should know that in April last year, a month before the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, Iran's crude oil exports exceeded 2.5 million barrels per day.
The sharp drop in Iran's oil exports has increased market concerns about crude oil supply.
|Production cut agreement was extended, US crude oil production fell,
In addition to concerns about the decline in Iran's oil exports increased crude oil supply, OPEC's extension of the production cut agreement and the slowdown in US crude oil production are also the driving force for the rise in international oil prices.
On July 2, the 6th Ministerial Meeting of the Organization for Petroleum Exporting (OPEC) and non-OPEC oil-producing countries were held in Vienna. Previously, OPEC had decided to extend the production cut agreement. On July 2, Russia and 10 non-OPEC oil-producing countries also decided to join OPEC's decision to extend the production cut agreement by 9 months to the end of March 2020.
Russian Energy Minister Shanda Novak said that the participants agreed to maintain the previous production cuts - a maximum of 120 per day to maintain the stability of market supply. In addition, OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries have also signed long-term cooperation agreements.
On the other hand, although Trump is extremely reluctant to see oil prices rise, U.S. oil production is indeed declining.
U.S. crude oil and condensate production hit a record high of 12.16 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.69 million barrels per day or 16% from the same period last year. But U.S. crude oil output growth rate has slowed after peaking in the third quarter of 2018, according to a monthly report released by the Energy Information Association (EIA) last week. Specifically, from February to April this year, the overall crude oil and condensate production increased by only 1.52 million barrels per day compared with the same period last year, while the highest record increase in the third quarter of last year reached 1.97 million barrels per day.
And, the number of active drilling rigs in the United States has decreased by 95 or 11% since November last year, down 65 or 8% in the same period last year. U.S. oil production growth is expected to continue to slow for the remainder of 2019.
As of press time, US WTI crude oil rose 0.33% to $56.45 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell 0.34% to $60.73 per barrel.
|Domestic oil prices will enter the "7 yuan era"?
July 9, domestic oil prices will usher in 14 adjustments this year. Affected by changes in international oil prices, although the price adjustment cycle has only 5 working days, the domestic crude oil change rate has continued to rise within the positive range.
As of the fifth working day, that is, on July 2, the crude oil change rate was 5.69%, corresponding to the domestic gasoline and diesel price increase by 248 yuan/ton. In comparison to the price increase, gasoline and diesel will be raised by 0.19 yuan to 0.20 yuan/liter.
Since the beginning of this year, domestic oil prices have experienced the pattern of "eight rises, four falls and one stranded". If raised on July 9, it will form a pattern of "nine rises, four falls and one stranded".It is worth noting that as of now, the highest price of 92 gasoline in the country is Hainan, with 7.77 yuan; the lowest is Gansu, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang, with 6.55 yuan. The area with the highest price of No. 0 diesel is Tibet, with 6.84 yuan; the area with the lowest is Inner Mongolia, with 6.12 yuan.
If domestic oil prices reach the ninth increase on July 9, gasoline No. 92 will enter the "7 yuan era"?
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