The new British Prime Minister Tras, a female prime minister who has been known for being "hard toward China" since he came to power, has obviously encountered trouble recently. 240 days after she took over as British Prime Minister, more than 2,100 Conservative MPs voted distrust to demand that Tras resign.
As for the civil level, since it has not gone through formal election procedures, it has "internally taken over" the Prime Minister from Johnson , and the British people do not support Trass at all. The poll data when I first took office had a support rate of less than 30%, and now it is even worse.
British Prime Minister Tras
But this matter is a bit incredible. The leader of a country has only been in power for 40 days. It can be said that before he has done anything, he has been rejected by the whole country. This is unreasonable. To put it bluntly, if you hate her so much and look down on her, why would you choose someone to serve as prime minister?
1. After Johnson stepped down, after fierce internal competition, former Foreign Minister Tras defeated the Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak and became the new British Prime Minister.
But how Tras defeated Surak is a bit mysterious. This matter starts with Johnson being forced to resign.
As the prime minister who led the UK to complete Brexit, although Johnson was forced to resign due to a scandal, his resignation was largely a matter of taking the blame for the British Conservative Party.
To put it bluntly, Johnson’s so-called “scandal” is not the decisive factor for a politician to end his political life. , who served as British Prime Minister during World War II, Churchill , smoked, drunk and had a bad temper, and was also not a good person. However, during his reign, he led the British to the victory of World War II, which is a credit that no one can erase.
The core reason why Johnson stepped down amid opposition is that since the beginning of this year, the Russian-Ukrainian war has caused Europe to suffer a serious energy crisis. The British domestic economy has also suffered a huge blow, and the level of people's livelihood has plummeted. The people cannot survive anymore, so of course they have to cause trouble for the government. As the prime minister, Johnson is the first person in charge.
Johnson
But to be honest, with the political ecology of Britain and the relationship between Britain and the United States, Johnson could not do anything in the face of the United States provoking the Russian-Ukrainian war. Swapping Johnson with someone else in the Conservative Party will also not change anything.
It’s just that when the people are angry, no matter whether you have any difficulties or not. After all, as a government, it exists to deal with these things. If things are not done well, no matter how many reasons are, it is an excuse.
Johnson was forced to resign at this time, which was actually taking on the public's anger for the Conservative government. For grassroots members of the Conservative Party, and even many backbench members of the British Parliament , Johnson's resignation was a bit "unfair". He himself was not as angry as heaven and people resented, but had a reputation of being unruly and approachable.
Therefore, although Johnson was forced to step down, the people who encouraged him to step down were also rejected by British Conservative MPs. That's right, that person is Sunak, the former Chancellor of the Exchequer who ran for British Prime Minister with Trass.
Former British Chancellor Sunak
In this sense, the reason why Tras was able to come to power is not because her policy program is so recognized, nor because British MPs like her. It is simply because among the two candidates, Tras and Sunak, people hope that an innocent Tras would come to power rather than Sunak, who "betrays the Lord".
To put it bluntly, it is like in the 2020 US presidential election, many people support Biden and oppose Trump . It is not how good Biden is, but because he is really scared by Trump's policy of allowing the epidemic.
Tras was almost "picked for free" and won the position of British Prime Minister. But sadly, she herself was unaware of this. She thought that the Conservative MPs supported her fiscal reform plan, so she was elected as the British Prime Minister.
This laid the groundwork for Tras being forced to do so now.
2. The fiscal reform that robs the poor and helps the rich
Tras was criticized, the most direct reason was the British fiscal reform measures she threw out. If we summarize it in the simplest terms, the core of this fiscal measure is to ignore wealth distribution and focus on economic growth, and to serve the growth of GDP.
Two years ago, there was a TV series called "In the Name of the People", in which Secretary Dakang also has such a character. Then the question is, "Everything is for GDP", why is "Secretary Dakang" loved by the audience, but Tras was abandoned by the British?
This is directly related to the current economic situation in the UK. The original intention of Tras' fiscal reform is to empower enterprises by reducing taxes to enterprises, so that enterprises can have more funds to invest in production. As enterprises invest more, there will be more jobs, and the lower-level people have income, and the social and economic conditions will gradually be improved.
After the Telas fiscal reform, the pound sterling exchange rate against the US dollar fell all the way
In peacetime, doing so is not a mistake. But the situation is quite special now. The whole of Europe has fallen into a serious energy crisis and inflation crisis due to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
On the one hand, the little tax reduced by the government is, for enterprises, it will not have an immediate effect. Before , the company could not live a tax cut and would go bankrupt; after the tax cut, the company would not have to go bankrupt, but it could only pay half of the salary or lay off half of the people.
In other words, Tras' tax cut policy was offset by the rising energy prices and commodity prices, and it did not have the effect of stimulating economic development at all.
On the other hand, the government cuts taxes on a large scale, and fiscal revenue will be reduced. At present, the whole of Britain is full of ordinary people waiting for government relief. If your government has no money, who can these people rely on to help?
Tras Cabinet is preparing to return the taxes that should have been collected from entrepreneurs, but it faces a situation where the money that should have been given to the lower class people and has no money to pay. This is equivalent to robbing the poor and helping the rich, and of course it will be strongly opposed by the people at the bottom.
From the financial perspective, in the context of the economic crisis, the government's budget cannot be reduced. Tras cut off the taxes, and in order to raise the budget, he had to borrow money from the bond market and issue British Treasury bonds. When people who play bonds see that the government does not collect taxes, they have to borrow money on a large scale. If the money is borrowed, when will it be paid back?
So the bond market began to sell bonds because of concern that the British government would not be able to pay back the money. When the British Treasury bonds were sold, the price naturally fell. Bonds with a face value of 100 yuan went out at 90 yuan. As a result, the financial market became chaotic again.
Like all other countries, the big customers of British Treasury bonds are also their own pension funds and other accounts. These accounts originally held a large amount of British Treasury bonds, and used treasury bonds to borrow money from banks, investing in the stock market to make money. Now that the treasury bonds in their hands have depreciated, the bank’s mortgage is not enough.
In order to avoid losses, banks will require these debt holders to supplement their mortgage funds. This will in turn cause a large number of large funds that use treasury bonds to sell their stocks and raise cash to replenish their positions.
This forms a vicious cycle, and the entire financial market collapses. The collapse of the UK's domestic financial market may also trigger the bursting of the domestic financial bubble in Europe and even the United States.
Now Global Economy was originally due to the Russian-Ukrainian war and Federal Reserve rate hike . On the eve of the financial crisis, a fiscal reform policy of Tras successfully made the British stock and bond market chaotic, and at the same time, the financial markets of other countries such as Europe and the United States were also scared to death.
In this way, she not only offended the rich and poor people in the UK, but also offended the European and American governments.A politician turns herself into someone that everyone doesn’t like. If she is not forced to be imprisoned, who will be forced to be imprisoned?
3. Who can turn the tide?
After feeling that he might have committed public anger, Tlas immediately took a series of measures to reconcile to save the situation. This includes suspending some tax cuts, allowing his Chancellor of the Exchequer to resign.
But now it seems that these measures obviously cannot win her support. At least the members of the Conservative Party are not optimistic about Tras's continued rule.
And this kind of political struggle without mass support has a very obvious feature, which is that there is no turning back. Those Conservative MPs who opposed her had already written a joint letter to ask her to resign and actually made a move to force her to the palace, it would be impossible for them to turn around and compromise with Trass.
Moreover, there is another former Chancellor Sunak who tried his best to defeat Johnson but was finally picked up by someone else. How could he be willing to give up the position of Prime Minister to Tras?
Therefore, after this round of palace-tornment storm, it can be foreseeable that Trass's path to British Prime Minister will probably not last long. Even if you barely survive this crisis, it is almost impossible for a prime minister who has lost all his prestige to accomplish anything. And Britain is in such a difficult situation now, people will not allow a prime minister who cannot do anything to rule for a long time.
But new problems follow, can Tras fail to do anything, if it is Sunak, or other British Conservative politicians, bring hope to the UK? The answer to the question
is probably not optimistic. Although Johnson is not the "elected" prime minister, he at least has the credit for bringing Brexit , and he is also a bohemian and dares to break the rules.
, a prime minister like
, was unable to lead Britain away from the influence of the United States. In addition to the storm of the Russian-Ukrainian war, other people who came to power through internal game of the Conservative Party and who had no public support, according to the US " Wall Street Journal ", such prime ministers are all "nameless people". How could they lead Britain out of the crisis?
So, Tras's short-term rule may be just the beginning of British political turmoil. If the Russian-Ukraine war continues next and Britain is still in power by the Conservative Party, then even if Churchill and Thatcher were replaced back then, it would not be able to solve the British problem.
Because the root of the entire European economic crisis is the Russian-Ukrainian war, in the United States. If you don’t change your relationship with the United States, don’t find a way to seek an independent foreign policy, and try to use internal reforms to save the United Kingdom, wouldn’t it be a completely different story?
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