The latest polls for the mayoral election in New Taipei City show that the Kuomintang candidate Hou Youyi (pictured left) continues to lead the Democratic Progressive Party candidate Su Zhenchang (pictured right).
China Taiwan Network reported on October 11 that the "nine-in-one" election on the island is approaching, and the blue and green are under pressure to lose the mayor of New Taipei in one battle. According to the latest poll of Taiwan's "Wang Wang Zhongshi", Kuomintang candidate Hou Youyi continued to steadily lead the Democratic Progressive Party candidate Su Zhenchang with a support of 49.4%, and won the opponent by 16.6 percentage points. Cross-analysis shows that in the youth votes, Hou and Su are in a difficult situation to distinguish, and the youth votes will become the key to the decisive victory of New Taipei City .
According to Taiwan's China Times, the latest poll of "Wangwang Zhongshi" shows that Hou Youyi leads Su Zhenchang's 32.8% with 49.4%. In terms of optimism, Hou Youyi also led Su Zhenchang's 25.8% with 53.8%.
Recent polls by relevant institutions have shown the same trend. Taiwan's United Daily News released a New Taipei City poll on September 19, with Hou and Su each having 48% and 24%. The polls released by TVBS on September 17 were Hou 48% and Su 32%. On the same day, Green Camp Media polled 40.2% of Hou and 29.4% of Su. Another green camp media released a poll on September 9 of Hou 39.8% and Su 30.8%, indicating that the gap between the two sides is at least more than 10%. Since the Kuomintang and the DPP confirmed the candidate for New Taipei mayor, Hou Youyi has steadily led Su Zhenchang.
From the age cross-analysis, the poll of "Wangwang Zhongshi" shows that Hou Youyi is overwhelmingly leading between the ages of 40 and 69, with Hou 34.6% and Su 31.4%, and the difference between the two is not big. It is worth noting that between young and middle-aged men aged 20 to 39, the two are evenly matched. Between the age of 20 and 29, Hou Su was 42.5%, and between the age of 30 and 39, Su beat Hou by 2 percentage points by 43.6%. The young and strong generation may become the key to this election.
poll also showed that the Blue and Green Army has returned to the team in New Taipei City. As the leader of the Blues' 2018 "general election", Hou Youyi has received 88.8% of the support of the Blue Camp; while Su Zhenchang is both an old county magistrate and a tycoon within the party, and 79.1% of the Green Camp has supported him; middle-level voters are more inclined to Hou, and Hou leads Su's 16% with 40.5%.
It is worth noting that in the distribution of votes in the 10 constituencies of the parliamentary constituencies, Hou Youyi has 9 constituencies leading Su Zhenchang, Sanchong and Luzhou in the 3 constituencies, and Su Zhenchang is only slightly ahead of Hou's 42.7% with 43.3%. Su has not shown any obvious advantage in this traditional green camp vote. In the key "swing zone" of New Taipei City, Banqiao , Hou led Su's 28.9% with 50.2%.
In addition, 58.4% of those who did not vote in the 2016 "general election" said they voted for Hou Youyi; 42% of those who did not vote in the 2014 "nine-in-one" election also wanted to vote in Hou. It can be seen that Hou's popularity is so high that the Blue Army, or middle-aged voters, who were disappointed in politics in the past, are willing to support him. (China Taiwan Network Li Ning)
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