According to Taiwanese media reports, in the end of the year, more than a month after the Taipei mayoral election, the "Beautiful Island Electronic News" recently released a poll on the Taipei mayoral election. Kuomintang candidate Jiang Wanan received 29.6% support, non-party candidate Huang Shanshan and Democratic Progressive Party candidate Chen Shizhong 27.8%. Huang Shixiu, founder of the Terminator of Nuclear Energy, posted a Facebook report that the dilemma is that in order not to let the election collapse, the DPP was forced to maintain the three-legged supervisor, but instead recommended Jiang Wan'an to be elected.
Photo source Taiwanese media
Huang Shixiu pointed out that the Taipei Mayor poll in October of "Beautiful Island Electronic News" rarely made a hypothesis of "abandonment of security", but many people did not understand this poll, and the responses of the three candidate camps may not be focused on the focus. It is meaningless to look at the support level or the number of abandoned insurance combinations. Only by combining the entire "1+3" poll can the correct result be interpreted.
Huang Shixiu explained that "1" asked about support, with Jiang Wanan 29.6%, Huang Shanshan 28.1%, and Chen Shizhong 27.8%, showing a stalemate in the election. At first glance, Huang Shanshan and Chen Shizhong have already crossed golden, but there are two prerequisites hidden. Dai Li'an was responsible for the polls in "Beautiful Island Electronic News" and "Zhen Media". Compared with the September figures, Huang Shanshan has significantly improved, Chen Shizhong has slightly increased, and Jiang Wan'an has slightly decreased.
Huang Shixiu explained that the above result was because the "Beautiful Island Electronic News" poll in October asked a large number of inducement questions about municipal affairs, including: transparent and efficient governance, administrative neutrality and non-dual standards, experience in planning and policy, solving municipal affairs capabilities, understanding the needs of citizens, etc. Therefore, Huang Shanshan and Chen Shizhong, who have administrative experience, both scored points, and Jiang Wan'an was restricted from his identity as a private representative, which was narrowed. This kind of question is most beneficial to Huang Shanshan, but it is inconsistent with the DPP's current policy of marginalizing Huang Shanshan.
Huang Shixiu also mentioned that this question completely reflects the dilemma faced by the DPP, that is, Chen Shizhong gave up, the hen was hopeless, and the chick still had to take care of it. Marginalized Huang Shanshan, summoned the basic green camp, and asked Chen Shi to lose to Jiang Wan'an, and took all the Taipei City Council html html html seats. In particular, as long as Taipei City Councilors are serious about the issue, their voice will be even greater than that of the "legislator". If the election of green camp members collapses, they will lose not only the number of seats, but also the huge voice in the next four years.
Huang Shixiu analyzed that "+3" asked about the abandoned insurance combination, and the first sub-item was the situation of "abandoning Chen Shizhong", Huang Shanshan 42.7% and Jiang Wanan 32.9%. This is the worst situation for Jiang Wanan. When Chen Shizhong exploded one after another and fell below the threshold of "Yao Wenzhi, the mayor candidate for Taipei, 2018", green camp voters abandoned their own protection and did not obey the orders of the DPP Central Committee at all. As long as half of the votes are transferred to Huang Shanshan, they can narrowly defeat Jiang Wanan.
However, Huang Shixiu believes that the probability of this situation is not high. Looking back at the number of "1", green camp voters can't judge who should abandon and protect whom before voting. The target is chaotic and the two sides eliminate each other, which reduces the effect of abandonment, so Jiang Wan'an is safe. Since the number of "1" means that the abandonment is invalid, are the three situations of "+3" all fake issues? This seems to be how Jiang Wan'an's camp interpreted it, but it is not right.
Huang Shixiu pointed out that in the situation of "abandoning Huang Shanshan", Jiang Wanan 48.2% and Chen Shizhong 34.5%. Huang Shanshan 53.6% and Chen Shizhong 28.%. It makes no sense to look at the numbers in detail, because reality will not happen. The common point of the situation of abandoning security is that Chen Shizhong lost to his opponents 15% or even more than 20%, so the DPP does not want abandoning security to happen. This is the dilemma. In order to prevent the election from collapsing, the DPP was forced to maintain the situation of a three-legged supervisor, but in the end, it was recommended that Jiang Wanan be elected.
Huang Shixiu mentioned that Wu Zijia, chairman of the Beautiful Island Electronic News, wrote honestly, "For the Celtics, once there is a abandonment effect in Taipei City, no matter how the votes move, Chen Shizhong will be the biggest loser." However, Wu Zijia still believes that "only by keeping the support of the three parties in a vague state of equal strength, Chen Shizhong can avoid the fate of being abandoned, and then narrowly win with some slight gaps." Chen Shizhong said, "We voters are very firm, and I am not worried about this issue." Lin Heming, deputy secretary-general of the Democratic Progressive Party, was so angry that he said, "Whoever talks about abandoning the protection this year, don't vote for him."
Huang Shixiu said that Huang Shanshan criticized the two camps for abandoning the security, but the joy on her face could not be hidden during the interview. Huang Shanshan's optimism comes from the trend of growing support. She plans to bet on the final debate to open the gap with Chen Shizhong and let the real abandonment happen. "Wu Zijia is a smart person. No one can offend him. The most clever thing is to express his own opinions and take what he needs. ”
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