On October 13, according to the market trend chart, today, the offshore RMB exchange rate "opened low and closed low", and fell slightly. So far (16:13), the offshore RMB exchange rate fell by 268 points, approaching 7.2000 again, at 7.1974.
At the same time, yesterday, after the offshore RMB exchange rate reached the highest level of 7.1505, it did not rise further, and finally closed at 7.1706, which was "along with the opening price". Recently, the offshore RMB exchange rate has "not risen and fallen again", approaching 7.2000 again. What is this?
Regarding this problem, the editor feels that the reason why the offshore RMB exchange rate has "not risen and fallen again" has approached 7.2000 again is mainly due to the rising market expectations of the Federal Reserve Fed 11 and in December.
Yesterday, the United States announced that the February rate of September PPIhtml was "higher than" the market expectations, recording 8.5%, which was "undervalued" by 0.1 percentage point, which made the pressure on the Federal Reserve to suppress inflation "increase" again, forcing the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates in November and December to heat up.
data shows that the monthly PPI rate in September was 0.4%, the expected value was 0.2%, and the previous value was -0.1%.
In addition, judging from the production price index in the first two months, the pressure on the Federal Reserve to suppress inflation is indeed "weaking" because they are all "negative values". However, in September, it suddenly "turned positive", which will inevitably make the pressure on the Federal Reserve to suppress inflation "increase" again.
data shows that from June to September, the monthly PPI rates in the United States were: 1.1%, -0.5%, -0.1%, and 0.4%, respectively.
Yesterday, as the September PPI monthly rate announced by the United States was "higher than" the market expectations, this made the probability that the September unseasonal CPI annual rate announced by the United States tonight was "higher than" the market expectations by 8.1%.
Tonight, once the US announced that the unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate in September was "higher than" the market expectations, it will inevitably cause the Fed to continue hike interest rates in November and December, which will instantly increase the pressure on the depreciation of the RMB.
In addition, yesterday, the economic data released by the UK and Japan were also "unsatisfactory", which did not cause the dollar index to fall further, but instead caused the US dollar index to rise slightly today. Therefore, recently, the offshore RMB exchange rate "has not risen and fall again", and it is also due to this aspect.
That is to say, as long as the US dollar index cannot fall sharply, the depreciation pressure of the offshore RMB will not "weak", and it is normal to fall again, and the offshore RMB exchange rate once again approaches 7.2000.
data shows that the UK's three-month GDPhtml February rate was -0.3%, the expected value was -0.2%, and the previous value was 0.1%. Judging from the data, in August, the UK's three-month GDP monthly rate was "overestimated" by 0.1 percentage point by the market.
In addition, in August, the monthly rate of industrial output in the UK was not only "lower than" market expectations, but also fell sharply compared with the previous value, down 0.7 percentage points month-on-month.
data shows that the monthly rate of industrial output in the UK in August was -1.8%, the expected value was -0.2%, and the previous value was -1.1%.
Yesterday, the economic data released by the UK was relatively "soft", which allowed the Bank of England to further expand the scale of emergency bond purchases, thereby curbing the expectation of a rise in the US dollar index "significantly discounted".
Today, the failure of the pound to the US dollar to continue to rise sharply may indicate this problem. In addition, yesterday, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen rose sharply, mainly because Japan's economic data released yesterday was "unsatisfactory".
According to the market trend, yesterday, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen rose from 145.850 to 146.763, with a cumulative increase of 913 points, that is, the US dollar appreciates by 0.62% against the Japanese yen.
Yesterday, the reason why the yen depreciated by 0.62% relative to the US dollar was mainly because the economic data released by Japan yesterday failed to force the US dollar index to fall further.
data shows that the monthly rate of core machinery orders in Japan in August was -5.8%, the expected value was -2.3%, and the previous value was 5.3%. Judging from the data, in August, the monthly rate of Japanese core machinery orders was not only "lower than" the market expected value, but also fell sharply compared with the previous value, down 11.1 percentage points.
Therefore, the editor feels that the reason why the offshore RMB exchange rate "has not risen and fall again" has approached 7.2000 again is mainly due to the combined effect of these factors. What do you think about this? Is it consistent with the editor's point of view?
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