On Thursday, the United States released its September CPI data. The United States' unseasonalized CPI in September was 8.2% year-on-year, expected to be 8.1%, and the previous value was 8.3%; the unseasonalized core CPI was 6.6% year-on-year, hitting a new high since August 1982, expected to be 6.5%, and the previous value was 6.3%. After the seasonal adjustment in September, the CPI was 0.4% month-on-month, expected 0.2%, and the previous value was 0.1%; the core CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month, expected 0.5%, and the previous value was 0.6%.
CPI and core CPI both exceeded expectations, indicating that US inflation is solidifying, and it also means that Federal Reserve 11 is likely to raise interest rates by 475 basis points. After the release of the US CPI data in September, the international financial markets instantly changed their faces. The US and European stock markets plunged in the short term, and bond yields soared. The US 10-year Treasury bond yield once exceeded 4%, setting a new high this year. The US dollar rose and gold fell sharply.
However, the US and European stock markets have become technically oversold in the medium term , and there are relatively strong rebound requirements. In addition, the US dollar index medium term technical indicators have been seriously overbought. The market will eventually land in the US September CPI. When the negative news is out, the US dollar index will pull back sharply, and US stocks rebounded sharply. It rose sharply on Thursday, making a bottom technical brake action. From a technical point of view, the probability of the US and European stock markets entering a rebound period has increased.
But in terms of international liquidity, the situation in the US and European markets is not optimistic. The possibility of the ECB raising interest rates by 75 basis points in October is relatively high, and the Fed is also likely to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in November. After that, the last round of interest rate hikes this year, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points. The two major international currencies have such radical interest rate hikes. This is expected that the " dollar shortage of " will be further serious.
Since the US and European stock markets have been mainly liquid bull markets in recent years, and the decline in liquidity is obviously unfavorable to the medium- and long-term trends of the US and European stock markets, the US and European stock markets are currently mainly a technical repair market. After the medium- and short-term technical indicators are corrected, the market is expected to regain the decline again.
And the expected decline in the US and European economy will also have a medium- and long-term impact on the valuation, financing, repurchase, etc. of US and European listed companies. Coupled with factors such as the rising yields of US and European bonds, in fact, the negative factors in the US and European stock markets are still increasing, and medium-term fluctuations are difficult to change the overall downward trend.
In the main harvest period between the US dollar tide and Wall Street , the uncertainty in the international financial market is relatively high, and it is often accompanied by the economic crisis cycle. The key is that the current market has become numb to the continuous inversion of the medium-term yield of US bond , and it is obviously ignoring the danger of the inverted yield of US bonds.
htmlOn October 13, the 2-year US Treasury yield rose 17.2 basis points to 4.474%, the 3-year US Treasury yield rose 13.7 basis points to 4.454%, the 5-year US Treasury yield rose 8.1 basis points to 4.207%, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose 4.8 basis points to 3.949%, and the 30-year US Treasury yield rose 4.3 basis points to 3.921%. The yields of US Treasury are inverted in all aspects, and the inverted phenomenon between the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield are becoming increasingly serious, which means that the US economy is likely to decline. But the financialized market is currently mainly trading in the Federal Reserve, which has blurred the real risks in the market.
and the recession of the euro zone economy is accelerating, Germany has fallen into a recession period, the current imbalance between exchange rate and the bond market in developed countries such as the United Kingdom, Japan, and South Korea has not yet been resolved, and some crisis variables in the international financial market have not been lifted. In this case, the sub-rebound market of venture capital should be cautious. (This article is an original article from Xinyueshu Finance. Please indicate the author and source from the Toutiao account Xinyueshu Finance)
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