can be said before that the dollar index soared and the RMB exchange rate depreciated significantly, causing the A shares to plummet recently. After central bank took four moves, yesterday offshore exchange rate appreciated by more than 1,000 points twice, and has appreciated from 7.26 to within 7.1. However, A-shares still plunged today, and they didn't even give a holiday red envelope. It's really hard to clear it.
A shares are either brainlessly reporting to the group track or putting in trouble to force retail investors to cut their losses. We have never seen a timely help. We can't help but want to ask, is the de-retail investment increasing the proportion of institutions really helping A-shares to grow their bullish? A-share public and private investors are not big retail investors. The key is that after the A-share market closed, European stock markets rose. The U.S. Nasdaq futures stretched rapidly, rising nearly 1%. Even the big slack Hong Kong stock rose. Are you angry?
After criticizing A-shares for everyone, let’s review the recent stock market trends. As the Bank of England took the ultimate move to purchase long-term Treasury bonds without restrictions, the once-collapse financial market has stabilized, and the pound against the US dollar has also begun to bottom out and rebound. After the US dollar has recently emerged from the emotional acceleration market, it has a demand for a pullback. In addition, Japan, the United Kingdom, South Korea and other countries took to save the market and , and the US dollar index fell sharply from 114 to below 112.
In order to reverse the expectations of unilateral depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, our central bank has also tried its best. After successively adjusting the reserve ratio of foreign exchange deposit and the reserve ratio of forward foreign exchange sales risk reserve , the National Foreign Exchange Market Self-Discipline Mechanism Video Conference was held on September 27. The meeting analyzed the recent operation of the foreign exchange market and deployed relevant work to strengthen self-discipline management. The meeting required that member units of the self-discipline mechanism should consciously maintain the basic stability of the foreign exchange market and resolutely curb the ups and downs of exchange rates.
This is a harsh warning from the central bank, but international shorting forces are still shorting the RMB without listening to advice. Yesterday, the offshore RMB exchange rate fell below 7.2 again during the session. After the market, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that it will strengthen the supervision of the foreign exchange market, crack down on illegal and irregular behaviors in the foreign exchange field, focus on cracking down on false and deceptive foreign exchange transactions, strengthen bank business audit responsibilities, and maintain a healthy and healthy order in the foreign exchange market.
There are also rumors that China's state-owned banks have been told to prepare for intervening in the offshore RMB market. As soon as this rumor came out, the offshore RMB exchange rate plunged sharply, appreciating by more than 1,200 points. It seems that international short-selling forces dare not compete with the central bank.
In addition, today the Bureau of Statistics released the PMI data for September. In September, the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 50.1%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, rising to the expansion range. From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point; the PMI of medium and small enterprises was 49.7% and 48.3%, up 0.8 and 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, still lower than the critical point.
September PMI data showed strong manufacturing and weak services, and foreign demand support weakened. New export orders fell 1.1% to 47%, the lowest during the epidemic period in April and May this year, indicating that weakening foreign demand has tended to weaken exports. Overall, it is relatively neutral, and the decline in exports is within the market expectations. Otherwise, photovoltaics and new energy vehicles would not have fallen so badly in September, but exports are expected to be relatively resilient.
Specifically, as of the close, Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.55%. As long as you open low after the holiday, it will basically be a 3,000-point defense battle. The ChiNext Index fell by 1.89%, and northbound funds sold slightly net 1.301 billion, and the turnover volume of the two markets was less than 600 billion, only 0.56 trillion.
yesterday we mentioned that A-shares are now in a bear market thinking again and are completely priced by short . The typical feature of this stage is that they are extremely pessimistic, have no response to positive factors, and are very sensitive to negative factors. Financing begins to explode, and financing and private equity significantly reduce position , which is a process of passive reduction of positions. According to Choice data, as of September 29, the financing balance of in the two markets has declined for six consecutive trading days. Including today, it is 7 trading days. The net financing sold in August was 17.088 billion, and the net financing sold in September was 50.773 billion. The financing balance of the two markets has reached the bottom level in April.
A shares currently do not lack money, what is lacking is confidence, what is lacking is the conference on April 27 to rebuild market confidence, and the next chance to turn the tables may be the October conference.
risk warning:
stock market is risky, investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently of
