After several days of consultation, G7 finally reached an agreement on kicking out some Russian banks from the SWIFT International Settlement System. It is generally believed that this move is the most lethal of the various sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia. Once a bank in a country is removed from the SWIFT international settlement system, it means that it cannot conduct cross-border settlement, and foreign trade activities will inevitably be impacted. Analysts said that as the world's important commodity exporter, Russia's energy export business cannot be separated from the SWIFT international settlement system.
According to AFP , about 70% of Russia's banks will be restricted by the SWIFT international settlement system ban. This move will directly lead to the decoupling of the Russian financial system from the international financial system , preventing about 80% of Russia's oil and gas exports. Wall Street Famous investment institution JPMorgan said that removing some Russian banks from the SWIFT international settlement system is very likely to cause Russia's economy to shrink by 20% month-on-month in the second quarter. Of course, while Western countries remove some Russian banks from the SWIFT international settlement system, they will also be affected to a certain extent.
International Monetary Fund President George Ava said that under the background of economic globalization, the current economic correlation between countries is higher than any time, and Russia is an important energy exporter in the world. Implementing sanctions on Russia will lead to an international energy supply shortage, thereby driving the soaring price of oil and natural gas , triggering a bad inflation , and hindering the pace of global economic recovery. Ava said that the decline in Russia's economy will inevitably drag down the global economy.
US media " Wall Street Journal " believes that removing some Russian banks from the SWIFT international settlement system will not only hit the global economy, but also the hegemony of the US dollar in international monetary system may also end here. The Wall Street Journal said that the SWIFT international settlement system itself was established under the leadership of the United States and European countries. While promoting global trade, it also effectively safeguards the hegemony of the US dollar. The United States now has absolute voice in the SWIFT international settlement system. The hegemonic status of the US dollar is complementary to its position in the SWIFT international settlement system in international trade settlement, and is the most important financial asset of the United States.
But if the United States blindly uses the SWIFT international settlement system as a weapon to attack other countries, it will inevitably weaken the hegemony of the US dollar. The Wall Street Journal warned the Biden- authorities that in recent years, many countries around the world have actively promoted the "de-dollarization" movement. At the same time, many economies, including China, Russia and India, are planning to build their own trade settlement system. The ultimate goal is to reduce their dependence on the SWIFT international settlement system and avoid sanctions that the United States may initiate at any time.
In addition, the Wall Street Journal also warned the Biden authorities that although finance has certain political attributes, it cannot be completely politicized, otherwise the US national credit will be reduced, ultimately endangering the US economy. Therefore, removing some Russian banks from the SWIFT international settlement system is actually a defeat.
