As the US St. Louis Fed President Brad hawks made a statement, it is not ruled out that a 75 basis point hike will be raised by a time, the US 10-year Treasury bond yield and the US dollar index soared again. Yesterday, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bonds approached 3%, while the interest rate on the China 10-year Treasury bonds was only 2.87%. The US dollar index rose above 101. The inverted interest rate of the Sino-US 10-year Treasury bonds and the strengthening of the US dollar index have put pressure on the RMB exchange rate.
yesterday's offshore RMB exchange rate fell below 6.4, the first time since October last year, the RMB exchange rate depreciated sharply, which will increase the pressure on foreign capital outflows. Northbound funds sold more than 3.5 billion yuan in early trading today. The three major A-share indexes opened low and then plunged sharply, and the ChiNext Index hit a new low this year.
Specifically, as of the early trading, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.21%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 2.26%. The interest rate of the US 10-year Treasury bonds soared, and technology growth stocks were under pressure, and the Sungrow Power Supply was still thundering, causing the photovoltaic sector to collapse.
In May, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 basis points or even 75 basis points and lowered the balance sheet, which did bring huge pressure to emerging markets, especially when the country is still in countercyclical easing.
But we also need to see positive factors. First of all, the A-shares fell sharply in the first four months, which has to some extent absorbed the expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction.
In addition, on April 19, Shanghai added 16408 new asymptomatic cases, a further decrease from 17334 the day before yesterday. From the perspective of the stock market technical perspective, is this a triple top? Omickron's characteristics are highly contagious and short incubation period, which means that it will explode quickly and the rate of infection will decrease quickly after the infection speed is controlled.
The most critical contradiction at present in A-shares is the impact of the Shanghai epidemic on the real economy, especially the high-end manufacturing industry chain. If controlled as scheduled, coupled with the recent intensive policies to support the real economy, the real economy is expected to stabilize, and A-shares are expected to pass the darkest moment and usher in the dawn.
