//Preface//
Australian dollar exchange rate plunged,
lowest point in a year,
continued to decline and has not changed!
experts predicted the bottoming rebound, is it possible for
to appear?
#01:
exchange rate fell to 1:4.56,
hit a new low
Australian dollar exchange rate decline has been going on for a long time, especially in recent times, with almost no signs of rising.
The lowest exchange rate today reached 1:4.5684, setting a new exchange rate low again.
(Picture source: Sina Finance)
From the perspective of long-term exchange rate, the peak of the Australian dollar exchange rate occurred at the end of February this year, when the exchange rate was 1:5.16, which is also the highest value of the Australian dollar exchange rate since 2021.
(Picture source: Sina Finance)
After that, the Australian dollar exchange rate continued to fall. At the end of August 2021, the exchange rate increased slightly, and it was really taken for more than two months between the rise and fall. After entered November, the exchange rate began to plummet.
(Picture source: Sina Finance)
Strictly speaking, before the outbreak of the Australian epidemic, the Australian dollar exchange rate remained stable for a long time.
has been hovering around 1:4.8, and there is not much floating up and down.
But an epidemic has completely changed this trend.
In March 2020, the epidemic in Australia broke out in full swing, the exchange rate collapsed, and the lowest value reached 1:3.9, which is also rare in history.
, then, the Australian dollar exchange rate continued to rise for several consecutive months.
It can be said that the trend of the Australian dollar exchange rate is closely related to the epidemic.
#02:
After the unblocking, the Australian economy recovered well.
can exchange rate
According to this situation, after Australia officially announced the unblocking of the country, and even the border blockade was lifted, a large number of international students and skilled immigration were welcomed back, the economic development expectations would be better than imagined.
However, the exchange rate trend of is getting weaker.
(Picture source: Sina Finance)
is not only weak, but also the decline is increasing, especially after November.
It is obvious that everything is getting better and the economic recovery is better than expected, so why has the exchange rate not changed for a long time?
Perhaps, there is an impact of the slowdown in China's economic development.
However, in the recent quarterly report, economists from institutions such as Goldman Sachs , Macquarie , Citi , Nomura Securities and other institutions unanimously predict that Chinese People's Bank of China will introduce monetary easing policies in the near future to support the sustained economic recovery.
If the forecast does not occur, the Australian dollar against the US dollar will also bottom out and rebound in the near future, opening up room for correction of the price increase.
In other words, the Australian dollar exchange rate is about to bottom out, but from the current exchange rate trend, there is no sign of the Australian dollar bottoming out.
has now fallen below the 1:4.6 mark, and the downward trend of is even more rapid.
(Picture source: 9news)
Economic recovery has reached expectations, the real estate market has been booming unprecedentedly, the border has also been opened, and a new group of investors will also return to Australia. The biggest reason for the impact of the Australian dollar exchange rate may be the local factor, that is, the Australian Central Bank's decision to announce that it will not raise interest rates in .
The Governor of the Australian Bank said that the latest data of does not guarantee that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates next year, and pointed out that it is reasonable not to raise interest rates before 2024.
implies that Australia's historically low interest rates will last for several years.
According to past experience, the impact of not hikes on the Australian dollar's exchange rate should not last for so long, and the impact is not so great. But this time, the Australian dollar's exchange rate reaction exceeded imagination!
Last
Experts predict that the Australian dollar will bottom out and rebound, but the question is what is the bottom. If the exchange rate continues to develop according to the current situation, the bottoming of this exchange rate may refresh the lowest value of the Australian dollar exchange rate in recent years...
