Zhang Aoping/Wen From the perspective of PPI, which represents the upstream inflation level, the month-on-month decline in PPI in September narrowed and fell sharply year-on-year. PPI continued to decline month-on-month, mainly due to the downward fluctuation of the supply-side international commodity prices, the effect of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in domestic coal and other industries continued to appear, and the overall weak market demand on the demand side was affected by factors such as factors. The year-on-year increase in PPI fell sharply, mainly due to factors such as the rise in the base in the same period last year. Looking ahead, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI may remain low under the influence of the base of the same period last year. Since last year, the supply impact brought by upstream input inflation has been alleviated to a certain extent.
In addition, the CPI-PPI scissors gap has further widened since it turned positive in August, reflecting that the cost pressure of midstream and downstream enterprises has eased and the profit margin has gradually recovered, but revenue is still affected by the weak economic recovery.
From the perspective of CPI, which represents the downstream inflation level, although the overall food price is affected by holiday demand factors, it has formed an upward pull force on CPI, in September, the country and various places have invested a total of about 200,000 tons of government pork reserves, and the monthly release volume has reached a historical high. It was also clear in National Development and Reform Commission that "we will continue to invest in central pork reserves in accordance with the market situation, and continue to guide local governments to coordinate the release of pork reserves to effectively ensure the smooth operation of the live pork market and prices." The market expectation management has alleviated the pressure of rising prices brought by the pig cycle.
In addition, it can more truly reflect the operating conditions of macroeconomic . The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.6% year-on-year, and the increase in fell by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and was at a low level for a long time, reflecting the lack of effective demand in domestic demand, and it is difficult for the private sector to support the economy to achieve a strong endogenous recovery (investment of private enterprises and consumption of residents).
Because the economy was the heaviest in the whole year in the fourth quarter, the implementation of economic stabilization policies requires grasping the time window and time nodes. macro-policy still needs to maintain strategic determination, firmly take the initiative of "putting me first", and help the private sector to relay government departments to make efforts, thereby driving the economy to achieve an endogenous recovery.
