On July 10, the Japanese Senate election will begin to vote in the shadow of the sudden assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Just two days before the Senate election, Abe was shot in Nara and eventually died of excessive blood loss.

Two gunshots made a huge echo in Japan.

On July 10, the Japanese Senate election will begin to vote in the shadow of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe 's sudden assassination.

Abe was the "heldor" of Japanese politics during his lifetime, and his death caused "shock" within the ruling party of Japan. How will the direction of this election, which is positioned as the "midterm exam" of the Japanese government? What changes will happen to Japanese politics?

Kisha government's "midterm exam" is coming

Just two days before the Senate election, Abe was shot in Nara and eventually died of excessive blood loss. At that time, he was giving a speech on the election assistance to the candidates for the Liberal Democratic Party Senate.

On July 8th local time, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot while giving a speech in Nara City. The picture shows Shinzo Abe giving a street speech before being shot. Image source: Visual China

The Senate election is of great significance. It is positioned as the "midterm exam" of the Japanese government and is also a "test paper" for the current Prime Minister Kishida Fumio in power. Japanese senator's term of office is 6 years, and half of the election is re-elected every 3 years. This time, the government and opposition parties will compete for 125 seats.

Japanese media said that this election will affect the trend of Japan's political situation in the next few years. Analysis points out that if the Liberal Democratic Party led by Fumio Kishida can increase seats in this election, it will consolidate Kishida's internal party status and help maintain its regime stability. The goal of the Liberal Democratic Party this time is to work with the ruling coalition Komeito Party to maintain more than half of the seats in the Senate.

Japanese Kyodo News Polls on July 6 showed that the two parties of the Liberal Public Security Bureau are expected to win more than half of the re-elected seats. Foreign media also generally predict that the Japanese ruling party won half of the seats as a "stable victory."

Abe's assassination changed the election trend

However, Abe, a "big boss" in the Liberal Democratic Party, suddenly shot and died, which will undoubtedly have an unavoidable impact on this election.

First, the rhythm before the Senate election was disrupted.

"The first few days of the official voting were the most critical time." Professor Liu Jiangyong from the Department of International Relations of Tsinghua University pointed out in an interview with China News Service that after Abe's assassination, Kishida interrupted the itinerary for assisting in the election in other places and urgently recalled all cabinet members to return to Tokyo immediately, "This disrupted the original rhythm."

Data photo: Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

Secondly, the Liberal Democratic Party may expand its seats on a large scale.

Liu Jiangyong said that Abe's assassination will have an impact on the psychology of voters, and the Liberal Democratic Party will receive a part of the sympathy votes. Zhou Yongsheng, professor at the Institute of International Relations of the School of Diplomacy, also believes that "As one of the leaders of the Liberal Democratic Party, Abe's death so miserably will definitely win the sympathy of the Japanese people. Therefore, in this election, the Liberal Democratic Party may expand its seats on a large scale."

Third, the composition of the forces within the Liberal Democratic Party may change.

Japanese government officials said that the general trend of politics will inevitably change. The power within the Liberal Democratic Party and the way of the regime operate will also change.

Japanese media said that as the longest-serving prime minister in Japanese constitutional history, Abe's influence in Japanese politics has not weakened even after abdicating. He led the "Abe faction", the largest faction within the Liberal Democratic Party, but after his death, there were no suitable candidates within the faction. If this faction is shaken, it will have an impact on the personnel of the cabinet and the Liberal Democratic Party.

Liu Jiangyong believes that Abe's assassination will not have a negative impact on Kishida's ruling status, and his status will instead rise and be consolidated. On the other hand, Zhou Yongsheng pointed out that due to the Japanese's moral standards of "loyalty to the group", Abe's death will not lead to the collapse of the internal part of the Liberal Democratic Party, but may further strengthen the ruling status of the Liberal Democratic Party and strengthen people's sympathy for the Liberal Democratic Party.

In addition, Liu Jiangyong emphasized, "Will the power center formed by the Liberal Democratic Party's 'Anma system' (Shizo Abe and Taro Aso ) be put on a quilt or become the end of the force? The restructuring of the rights within the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party has kicked off this, which is worth paying attention to."

Domestic and diplomatic challenges have not decreased

At present, Japan is facing problems such as rising prices and insufficient electricity supply, which puts pressure on the Kishida government.

Data map: Tokyo streets under high temperatures in Japan.

polls show that the most concerned topic of voters in this election is "counter-of-price rise measures and economic policies". Japanese companies hope that more than half of the economic related policies implemented by the Japanese government will answer "counter-of-price rise measures".

Zhou Yongsheng said, "The biggest challenge facing Kishida is whether the economy can be developed well, especially in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, energy and food prices have risen sharply, and Japan's prices have a tendency to inflation . Whether Kishida can allow the Japanese economy to continue to develop in the face of this impact is the most important test. ”

In diplomacy, Liu Jiangyong believes that “there are signs of 'infidelity' in Japan’s national strategy, which is the biggest threat facing Japan. The security situation in the region may worsen. ”

Although the results of the Senate election are currently unknown, it is certain that the gunfire on the 8th will change Japan forever.