It is true that realizing the reunification of the motherland is the general trend and the will of the people is something that no one can stop it, but to make this goal ultimately become a reality, the process of is also destined to be difficult and bumpy.
We must admit that the DPP authorities are now going further and further on the road to seeking "Taiwan independence". National reunification is the only way to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Under this situation, "martial unification" of is probably an option that we are subjectively unwilling to accept, but objectively have to face.
Previously, a set of data leaked from the Taiwan military's war loss assessment report showed that assuming a military conflict broke out in the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan military may lose more than 40,000 people in one week, , and the death toll of ordinary people is expected to be 3 to 5 times the number of war loss of the Taiwan military.
In other words, if the two sides of the Taiwan Strait get fire, the number of deaths in Taiwan within a week is conservatively estimated to be around 240,000.
The author believes that if the war in the Taiwan Strait begins, it is unlikely to take down the treasure island without any effort. , but it is really alarmist to cause hundreds of thousands of casualties in Taiwan's military and civilians within one week.
During the Gulf War, the Iraqi army was killed in a month by the multinational troops that had absolute advantage. The Russian-Ukrainian war has lasted for more than two months, and the combined number of casualties between the two sides is estimated to have just exceeded 40,000.
The premise for the above set of data is that the Taiwan military must, as its "Minister of Defense" Qiu Guozheng said: "They will fight to the last person."
But just imagine, can the Taiwan Army, which is known for " Strawberry Soldier " do this?
So, how much casualties will be caused in this war of unity that concerns the future of the country and the destiny of the nation?
In my opinion, the casualties in the Taiwan Strait War basically depend on three factors: The combat strategy of the People's Liberation Army, the will of the Taiwan independence forces to resist, and the degree of interference from outside the region.
The current total force of the Taiwan Army is about 165,000, and the reserve service is said to be 2 million. , but the number of people that can be supplemented in actual wartime will not exceed 400,000.
The current "defense and deterrence, heavy layer deterrence" strategy adopted by the Taiwan Army can be roughly divided into four stages, namely , that is, "reject the enemy on the other side, attack the enemy on the half cross, destroy the enemy on the beach, and annihilate the enemy in the formation."
For this reason, the well-known American think tank Rand Company also specially tailored a "asymmetric combat system" for the Taiwan army. suggests that the Taiwan army should achieve comprehensive mechanization of the United States, that is, to purchase a large number of M1A2 main battle tank , M270 rocket launcher, M109A6 self-propelled artillery, "javelin" anti-tank missile , etc.
uses the so-called "poisonous scorpion tactics" and "heedgehog tactics" to lure the enemy into depth and resist gradually. drags and waits for change, increasing the war costs on the mainland.
So, in the face of the stubborn Taiwan independence forces, what will the PLA's total force in attacking Taiwan?
A few years ago, Yi Si'an, a researcher at the US "2049 Institute", once said to the public that "If the People's Liberation Army wants to have any chance of winning in attacking Taiwan, it may have to mobilize up to 2 million troops, and thousands of warships carrying hundreds of thousands of navies ."
You must know that 2 million people are close to the total strength of the People's Liberation Army, and thousands of ships are far more than the total number of active ships in the PLA. No wonder Yi Si'an was immediately ridiculed by netizens on Taiwan's island as soon as he said this, and he called it "Nonsense, a fantasy, even elementary school students in Taiwan know that it is impossible."
Modern warfare has entered the era of beyond visual range and informationization. 's approach of simply making up numbers is no longer in line with the current combat philosophy.
Taiwan Island has a small area and limited battlefield capacity. Too many soldiers will only increase the logistics and transportation burden, which will not benefit much from quickly resolving the battle. Moreover, after the outbreak of the Taiwan Strait War, China's potential opponents in several other strategic directions will also be ready to move. We must also attach great importance to the trends of these countries.
In the early 1950s, our army formulated an earlier plan to attack Taiwan. In this plan, our army plans to mobilize 500,000 troops from 16 troops of the army to adopt a combat policy of east-west attack and sea and air, and strive to seize Taiwan Island in 15 days.
Based on this judgment, it is quite likely that the PLA's total troops attacking Taiwan are around 500,000.
The battle against Taiwan is related to the fate of the country. If you don’t fight, you will be gone. If you fight, you will win. If the situation develops to the point where force is necessary, then the most ideal way to regain Taiwan is to "close the door and fight the dog". first cut off all contacts inside and outside the island, and then use the most fierce firepower to strive to end the battle in a short time.
First of all, the People's Liberation Army may use long-range firepower to carry out all-round saturation strikes on targets such as Kinmen, Matsu, , as well as airports on Taiwan Island, artillery and missile positions, radar bases, command agencies, ammunition depots, ports, oil depots, communication facilities, etc.
Immediately afterwards, the People's Liberation Army will implement full-band interference on electronic communications on the island, cut off all internal and external communication networks on the island, and concentrate on public opinion propaganda. will continue to put pressure on the stubborn Taiwanese independence elements. After the preliminary air defense suppression of the Taiwan Army, the J-20 will fly over Taiwan to further seize air supremacy. Then, with the cooperation of the J-10 and the J-16 fighter jets, such as the J-10, J-16, and other fighters carried out a "cupuncture-type" precise strike on the remaining high-value targets of the Taiwan Army with the cooperation of the early warning aircraft , 5 electronic warfare aircraft and drones.
To ensure the smooth implementation of the login plan, The PLA's two aircraft carrier combat groups may be deployed on the sea near Taiwan Island for alert, and large troops took 075 amphibious assault ship, 071 dock landing ship, 072 tank landing ship and other amphibious combat ships to head to Taiwan Island.
After completing the first round of fire assault, the PLA's long-range rocket launcher will also provide strong firepower support to the landing troops.
After clearing the firepower point of the Taiwan Army’s beachhead, the PLA landing troops will advance deep into Taiwan Island and clear and encircle the remaining Taiwan troops. If the Taiwan military announced that it would give up its resistance at this time, then the losses of both sides should not be too great.
But if the Taiwan army still chooses to resist and refuses to surrender, then the next step may be to face the more cruel city war .
After entering the urban warfare stage, the Taiwan Army may imitate the Ukrainian army's tactics, fights the People's Liberation Army with a high-tech guerrilla warfare under high-tech conditions .
In the currently underway war in Russia-Ukraine, the Ukrainian army relied on complex terrain and distributed ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) in the Russian-controlled areas, causing great trouble to the Russian army in small groups. In the future war on the Taiwan Strait, our army may also encounter similar situations as those of the Russian army.
However, compared with Ukraine, Taiwan obviously lacks sufficient defense depth, and is not suitable for the Ukrainian military's strategy of "using space for time".
, and since the PLA has cut off all connections between Taiwan and the outside world, the Taiwan military can receive far less external support than the Ukrainian army , it is difficult to fight a protracted "people's war" on the local area like the Ukrainian army.
Based on factors of all parties, without the interference of external forces or the degree of interference is limited, even if the Taiwan military uses the benefits of the terrain to fight the trapped beasts, the war should not exceed two weeks, and the total number of casualties on both sides can be generally controlled at about one or two thousand people.
However, as the author mentioned in the previous article, the biggest variable of casualties in the Taiwan Strait War lies in whether there is any interference from outside the region. If the United States, Japan and other countries send troops to intervene, , then the number of casualties in this war may undergo a major change.
For a long time, the US government has regarded China as its strategic rival and regarded Taiwan as a pawn to check and balance China's rise.
Americans actually know that if the two sides of the Taiwan Strait achieve unity, the United States' balance of power that has maintained in the Western Pacific for decades will also collapse, which is absolutely unacceptable to the United States. Judging from some recent statements by senior US officials, the United States is likely to prevent Taiwan from returning to the embrace of the motherland through various means, including force.
The US military has many intervention methods to choose from, and its degree of intervention will also change with the evolution of the war and the changes in the situation.
The author believes that in the case of a drastic change in the situation in the Taiwan Strait, the United States may intervene in three ways.
The first is to put pressure on mainland China through comprehensive means such as economic sanctions , public opinion rendering, arms sales to Taiwan and diplomatic isolation, forces mainland China to give up or terminate the plan to unify Taiwan;
The second method is to carry out limited military intervention, that is, to provide Taiwan with military intelligence and combat guidance, and electromagnetically suppress the People's Liberation Army during wartime, makes it difficult for mainland China to regain Taiwan.
The third method is to engage in a comprehensive military confrontation with mainland China. means to use all military forces, such as aircraft carrier battle groups, stealth fighter , attack nuclear submarine and cruise missiles, to fight a local war with the People's Liberation Army of controllable scale and intensity.
If only the first and second situations occurred, There will be no direct military conflict between China and the United States, and the United States should not suffer any personnel losses.
But if the United States intervenes in the third way, then in the case of war between China and the United States, the US military will most likely suffer an unprecedented heavy blow.
Previously, the US Pentagon and many American think tanks have simulated and deduced the Taiwan Strait War through computers many times. Most of the results obtained by are more losses than wins.
Once the People's Liberation Army's ballistic missile and cruise missile "named" one by one to the US aircraft carrier battle group, " First Island Chain " military base , and port terminals.
is calculated based on the number of more than 5,000 people on a Nimitz class aircraft carrier and more than 300 people on a "Ali Burke" class destroyer "Highlights" class destroyer "Highlights" class. As long as the US military loses one or two large surface ships and one or two military bases of are hit, at least thousands of American soldiers will die on the spot.
In addition, after the US military decided to intervene in the Taiwan Strait War, its allies in the Asia-Pacific region may also send troops to join, and Japan is the first to be affected.
At the "2+2 Talks" held not long ago, the top leaders of the United States and Japan formulated a "draft joint combat plan" on the "Outbreak of the Taiwan Strait War".
If Japan decides to "assist in defense of Taiwan", it is likely to send several warships from the sea to join the US Seventh Fleet to assist in air defense and anti-submarine . Japanese airplanes will also dispatch F-35, F-2 and other fighter jets to perform air control and anti-ship missions.
Considering that Japanese Self-Defense Force is limited in scale, even if you send troops, you cannot give it all, and your own losses are relatively controllable.
But if the United States and Japan will burn the war to China, then the air bases, military ports, , etc. in Japan will also be hit by multiple waves of long-range firepower, three-dimensionally. By this calculation, the casualties of the US-Japanese coalition alone may exceed 10,000, which is obviously unbearable for these two countries.
As for the casualties of our army, the author believes that it depends on whether we are fighting with the US military. If the opponent is just the Taiwan army, our army may not have suffered too much losses. However, if the United States and other extraterritorial forces have direct military conflicts with our army, the casualties number may not be too small.
at least two aircraft carriers that act as a warning post near the Taiwan Strait are likely to be "careful" by the other party's B1B+LRASM combination at the first time. is calculated based on the posts of nearly 2,000 people per ship, and the total of the two ships is nearly 4,000 people.
If the landing fleet is attacked by the opponent halfway, and even the gathering ground of the coastal forces will be hit, and personnel losses will further surge.
Judging from the current situation, it is unlikely that China and the United States will fight. But we cannot be lucky and give up our preparation for strong intervention in the United States.
Theoretically speaking, using the "Pei Ping model" to not abandon one soldier and one soldier to recover the treasure island is of course the most ideal result. But if this goal is not achieved, we must also be prepared to shed blood and sacrifice for the sake of the great cause of reunification of the motherland.
For China, which has been living for a long time, most Chinese people not only lack sufficient understanding of the war, but also is not mentally prepared for the losses of their own personnel in the war.
The author believes that if the two sides of the Taiwan Strait really reach the point of fighting each other, we should still do a good job in media control and public opinion guidance in advance, minimizes unnecessary panic and does not give people with ulterior motives an opportunity to take advantage of it.
Wars have always been cruel and ruthless. Only by making the worst plans in advance, , especially preparing plans for some possible adverse situations, can we achieve a relatively ideal result.
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