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A new round of wider crackdown on China's semiconductor industry has already begun. Last week, the United States launched a series of actions to expand restrictions on the semiconductor industry in mainland China. In addition to prohibiting the supply of more advanced processes to mainland China with 14nm and below, the suppression targets are also directed to memory and EDA tool software. .
"Whether it is the restrictions on mainland China's acquisition of advanced chip manufacturing capabilities or the EDA export control ban, the United States' suppression of China's semiconductor field will continue, which will have an adverse impact on the current mainland semiconductor industry and some core companies." Han Xiaomin, general manager of Jiwei Consulting, emphasized, "On the one hand, mainland semiconductor companies need to maintain an open mind and work with domestic and foreign companies that can cooperate to continue to promote business development; on the other hand, they also need to implement breakthroughs in the upstream and downstream parties within the United Nations to implement breakthroughs in the field of blocking and embargoing in the United States." The United States has spared no effort to accurately crack down on the "blocking" of key equipment involved in semiconductor manufacturing by
14nm and the embargo of memory equipment.
has been targeted to crack down on mainland foundry giant SMIC since 2020, banning US semiconductor equipment manufacturers from selling equipment to 10nm and below advanced process chips to them without obtaining a license. Not only that, in June 2021, American companies were once again banned from directly selling 28nm related equipment to mainland China, and their targets were also directed to SMIC. Now, the 14nm road is blocked again, and the restrictions are expanded from domestic capital to a wider range of foundries operating in the mainland.
According to its logic, not only does the meat from advanced technology not be eaten, but the soup from mature processes is not "drink" too much, but "locked" 14nm again, obviously there are deeper plans behind it.
combines the views of many industry insiders to summarize this plan of the United States: First of all, the targetedness and precision of the attack are stronger. Secondly, cut off the path of advancement to more advanced technology at 14nm. Again, 14nm is a key node for the mainland to be committed to independent and controllable IT information and innovation infrastructure. If blocked at this node, it will create serious obstacles to the development of high-end chip industries such as CPU, GPU, and AI in the mainland.
Finally, combined with the US sanctions, it may cover all chip companies in China with advanced manufacturing capabilities. In the context of the "Chip Act", it is not difficult to see that on the one hand, this ban not only restricts mainland China from obtaining advanced process technology, but also prompts foreign companies to transfer their advanced manufacturing capabilities in mainland China and high gross profit manufacturing capabilities to the United States.
Moreover, not only focusing on the tightening of the foundry industry, the United States has also become more and more aggressive, directly extending its hands to semiconductor bulk memory, intending to hinder the mainland's storage industry's ZTE .
memory can be said to be "one of the three parts of the world" in the semiconductor product category. In 2021, the global memory market size was US$153.838 billion, accounting for 33% of the global semiconductor scale. Moreover, the market structure of the storage industry in the past was highly concentrated, and the market volume of DRAM and NAND were highly concentrated among overseas manufacturers such as Samsung , Hynix , Micro , and Kioxia. However, in recent years, the domestic storage industry has been moving forward, creating a new situation in the dimensions of technology, products, applications and markets, and achieving a comprehensive breakthrough. This is obviously not what the United States "happy to see".
Overall, the mainland storage industry has been advancing rapidly in the NAND field, and the DRAM market is also making breakthroughs from 0 to 1; it is also remarkable in the expansion of production capacity and expanding customer areas. A series of dazzling achievements obviously make the beauty restless, and a "tailor-made" ban also follows.
Although this ban is still in the consideration stage, no bill has been drafted. But Han Xiaomin judged that judging from the current measures taken by the United States to compete in the semiconductor field between China and the United States, the possibility of the ban being passed is extremely high.
The plan to limit the EDA tools required by GAA
in the process of advanced processes did not make the United States rest assured. Instead, it began to start from the source and impose new export restrictions on the EDA tools necessary to manufacture chips using the new "Gate-all-around" (GAA) technology, further building a high wall to slow down the ability of mainland China to manufacture advanced chips.
Since Samsung first introduced the GAA process at the 3nm node, it has essentially linked the GAA process with 3nm.
Currently, there are many players in the fields of AI chips, CPU/GPU/DPU, and mining machine ASIC. They have practical requirements for 5nm and more advanced processes. Although the design difficulty of 3nm chips and the cost of 100 million yuan in chips seem to be relatively far away, the future advancement of high-end design in mainland China will inevitably move towards 3nm. The ban on selling EDA tools related to GAA is equivalent to setting up numerous roadblocks for the mainland design industry to advance at the 3nm node representing the highest level of advanced technology.
Moreover, contemporary EDA tools have run through the entire process of IC design, from simulation, synthesis to layout and back-end process manufacturing, forming an inseparable whole. As the difficulty of upgrading advanced processes continues to increase, a closer development collaborative working model will be formed between the EDA industry and the foundry. When the integration of EDA tools and processes continues to increase, disabling GAA-related EDA tools also means that the probability of all EDA tools being affected has increased significantly.
What cannot be ignored is that when design manufacturers use EDA, generally EDA manufacturers will provide and share corresponding IPs. As the advanced technology becomes more complex, the call of mature IPs is crucial to the success of streamers. EDA sanctions and mature IPs will also "cut off food", and "secondary" harm has to be done.
"This will have an impact on whether the relevant design companies can adopt the upgraded version of EDA in the future, whether they can obtain corresponding technical support, design cycle and chipping, etc., which also means that the progress of 3nm high-end chips in mainland China will be further hindered in the future." An industry insider pointed out.
"Since you have already taken action against EDA, this will be a normal situation. The US government can start as needed at any time. With the equipment embargo of advanced processes, the impact will be wider." The above-mentioned person said worriedly.
How China's chip industry is moving forward in the fire
Such intensive suppression has long been traceable. In recent years, the United States has launched endless combination punches to curb the development of the mainland's semiconductor industry, and is pressing step by step, from advanced processes to memory, and then to EDA, an indispensable part of chip design. The United States' containment policy has covered and increased the entire process from EDA, design and manufacturing, casting a huge haze for the mainland's advancement in advanced processes, memory and high-end chip design.
Some industry analysts pointed out that the various restrictions on the semiconductor industry in mainland China by the United States show that it is not simply to slow down development, but to move towards trying to weaken China's semiconductor capabilities. Although
is facing many blockades, just like the two sides of the coin, the repeated sanctions of the United States have also become a catalyst for progress such as domestic equipment and EDA.
According to relevant statistics of CITIC Securities , the domestic production rate is relatively high in equipment such as glue removal, cleaning, diffusion, and etching . The fields of lithography machine , thin film deposition, ion implantation, and glue coating development are relatively low, and there is still a lot of room for improvement in equipment categories and process coverage. Industry insiders pointed out that as the security awareness of supply chain gradually increases, domestic wafer factories are expected to accelerate the localization of the supply chain, domestic equipment manufacturers are expected to continue to benefit, and their share will be increased step by step.
The above-mentioned person suggested that the localization of key semiconductor equipment must be the top priority of the future development of the mainland semiconductor industry. We must confront each other and make up our minds to fight against the water. We must do 100% of the localization of key equipment, and we must gather elite troops and advance in a planned and step-by-step manner.
In addition, at the EDA level, coupled with favorable factors such as industrial policies, investment support, and industry demand, domestic EDA has made great progress in financing, talents, iteration, integration, etc.In the future, how to use the power of AI and cloud platforms, how to achieve point-to-face breakthroughs, how to build a high-value EDA+IP ecosystem, how to accelerate mergers and acquisitions and integration, etc., will become more bargaining chips for gaining more wins.
From a deeper perspective, the US semiconductor ban has been accurately hitting the Chinese industry, which also allows us to see our own shortcomings.
Most interviewees suggested that the mainland semiconductor industry should move forward in artillery fire in the future. First, we must focus on introducing more targeted, surface-to-point focused policies. Second, the more difficult the times, the more we must maintain an open mind and work with international and domestic companies that can cooperate to continuously promote business development. Third, we must unite with all upstream and downstream parties in China to strengthen our strengths and fill our shortcomings in response to the key links of the US blockade and embargo.
Faced with this series of suppression and the introduction of a chip bill, a series of wall-building decoupling practices in the United States will seriously disrupt the global semiconductor supply chain, and the future development of the mainland semiconductor industry will also face a full-scale test with ambush. But as industry insiders have pointed out, the United States has always claimed to be a supporter and defender of the free market concept, and has even used this as an excuse to attack other countries many times. Now, in order to maintain hegemony, it has used such large-scale non-market behaviors and subsidy policies to make many chip companies take sides. However, no restrictions and suppression can stop the development of China's semiconductor industry and industrial progress. (Proofreading/Zhang Yiqun)
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