Moreover, on September 14, the American company Nvidia officially announced the acquisition of ARM, which made Huawei HiSilicon, which relied on ARM IP authorization, even more uncertain.

text: Dong Zhijun

ID: BMR2004

Huawei ushered in the "darkest moment".

HTM0On September 15, the US sanctions ban on Huawei officially came into effect. On September 14, TSMC officially stopped producing Kirin chips for Huawei, which also means that after September 15, TSMC, MediaTek, Samsung and other manufacturers will be unable to continue to supply Huawei. Moreover, on September 14, the American company Nvidia officially announced the acquisition of ARM, which made Huawei HiSilicon, which relied on ARM IP authorization, even more uncertain.

In response to this, news broke out on September 10 that Huawei was preparing a special freight plane to TSMC's factory and rushing to transport chips as much as possible at the last moment.

As soon as the US ban was issued in May, Huawei urgently added orders of up to US$700 million to TSMC, which led to TSMC's crazy rush to work. At the same time, Huawei also turned its attention to MediaTek, hoping to get out of trouble by purchasing MediaTek chips. On several mid-range models of Huawei, MediaTek Dimensity 800 processor is used.

Regarding the specific requirements of the US ban, Huawei's chip reserves and other related issues, the "Business School" reporter sent an interview letter to Huawei. As of press time, no reply was received.

At this point, Kirin chips will have to temporarily "leave" the market. In the absence of Kirin chips, will Huawei's mobile phone shipments be affected? In addition to TSMC, MediaTek, Qualcomm and Samsung, which domestic manufacturers can place high expectations? Can the Hongmeng system become the third largest mobile operating system? How should Huawei, who was forced into a dead end to fate, be reborn?

chip revolution

What is the ban on Huawei by the United States?

TSMC cut off the supply of Huawei chips because of the sanctions regulations on Huawei issued by the US Department of Commerce on May 15, which directly cut off the manufacturing channels of Huawei's self-developed chips. The regulations require that if a chip is designed by Huawei and its subsidiary HiSilicon, and software or equipment controlled by the US government is used in the process, even if the entire production process occurs outside the United States, relevant companies must apply for a license from the US Department of Commerce before delivering the chip to Huawei. The buffer period stipulated is 120 days and will be implemented until September 15.

htmlOn August 17, the US Department of Commerce further expanded restrictions on Huawei's chip supply chain. Huawei, as the buyer, intermediate consignee, final consignee or final customer, participated in related transactions, and was prohibited except for obtaining a license. In addition, all companies that use basic American technology and software are subject to ban restrictions, which means that even if Huawei abandons its own chip development and chooses to purchase general-purpose products from third-party chip design companies, if it uses basic American technology and software, it will still require permission from the US government. The US ban includes both chip technology and equipment, as well as software such as mobile phone operating systems.

"This ban will have a significant impact on Huawei, and Huawei's competitiveness and market share in the mobile phone market will also be negatively affected." Kang Zhao, an expert in the mobile terminal industry and editor-in-chief of the operator World Network, pointed out that its impact mainly lies in three aspects: 1. The supply of raw materials will be completely interrupted; 2. Huawei's long-term development plan includes its global layout; 3. It will have a revolutionary impact on Huawei's important products, and the most significant one is mobile phones.

The biggest difficulty facing Huawei is that almost all the core and important manufacturers in the supply chain cannot continue to ship to Huawei, including chips, screens and other devices.

What does the Kirin chip mean to Huawei? As early as 2004, Huawei HiSilicon was officially established. Unlike the current high-end mobile phone processing chips, HiSilicon mainly designed router chips and network device modems. It was not until early 2014 that the Kirin processor was officially released. From the launch of Kirin 910 in 2014 to the Kirin 955 in 2016, HiSilicon's Kirin chip shipments exceeded 100 million, and it had exceeded 100 million in less than three years.

"Huawei's chips mainly come from three sources, namely Kirin produced by TSMC, which purchases other manufacturers such as Qualcomm and MediaTek in the United States. The third is the inventory of the first two items." Kang Zhao said.

There is no doubt that the company that has the greatest impact on Huawei is TSMC.

text: Dong Zhijun

ID: BMR2004

Huawei ushered in the "darkest moment".

HTM0On September 15, the US sanctions ban on Huawei officially came into effect. On September 14, TSMC officially stopped producing Kirin chips for Huawei, which also means that after September 15, TSMC, MediaTek, Samsung and other manufacturers will be unable to continue to supply Huawei. Moreover, on September 14, the American company Nvidia officially announced the acquisition of ARM, which made Huawei HiSilicon, which relied on ARM IP authorization, even more uncertain.

In response to this, news broke out on September 10 that Huawei was preparing a special freight plane to TSMC's factory and rushing to transport chips as much as possible at the last moment.

As soon as the US ban was issued in May, Huawei urgently added orders of up to US$700 million to TSMC, which led to TSMC's crazy rush to work. At the same time, Huawei also turned its attention to MediaTek, hoping to get out of trouble by purchasing MediaTek chips. On several mid-range models of Huawei, MediaTek Dimensity 800 processor is used.

Regarding the specific requirements of the US ban, Huawei's chip reserves and other related issues, the "Business School" reporter sent an interview letter to Huawei. As of press time, no reply was received.

At this point, Kirin chips will have to temporarily "leave" the market. In the absence of Kirin chips, will Huawei's mobile phone shipments be affected? In addition to TSMC, MediaTek, Qualcomm and Samsung, which domestic manufacturers can place high expectations? Can the Hongmeng system become the third largest mobile operating system? How should Huawei, who was forced into a dead end to fate, be reborn?

chip revolution

What is the ban on Huawei by the United States?

TSMC cut off the supply of Huawei chips because of the sanctions regulations on Huawei issued by the US Department of Commerce on May 15, which directly cut off the manufacturing channels of Huawei's self-developed chips. The regulations require that if a chip is designed by Huawei and its subsidiary HiSilicon, and software or equipment controlled by the US government is used in the process, even if the entire production process occurs outside the United States, relevant companies must apply for a license from the US Department of Commerce before delivering the chip to Huawei. The buffer period stipulated is 120 days and will be implemented until September 15.

htmlOn August 17, the US Department of Commerce further expanded restrictions on Huawei's chip supply chain. Huawei, as the buyer, intermediate consignee, final consignee or final customer, participated in related transactions, and was prohibited except for obtaining a license. In addition, all companies that use basic American technology and software are subject to ban restrictions, which means that even if Huawei abandons its own chip development and chooses to purchase general-purpose products from third-party chip design companies, if it uses basic American technology and software, it will still require permission from the US government. The US ban includes both chip technology and equipment, as well as software such as mobile phone operating systems.

"This ban will have a significant impact on Huawei, and Huawei's competitiveness and market share in the mobile phone market will also be negatively affected." Kang Zhao, an expert in the mobile terminal industry and editor-in-chief of the operator World Network, pointed out that its impact mainly lies in three aspects: 1. The supply of raw materials will be completely interrupted; 2. Huawei's long-term development plan includes its global layout; 3. It will have a revolutionary impact on Huawei's important products, and the most significant one is mobile phones.

The biggest difficulty facing Huawei is that almost all the core and important manufacturers in the supply chain cannot continue to ship to Huawei, including chips, screens and other devices.

What does the Kirin chip mean to Huawei? As early as 2004, Huawei HiSilicon was officially established. Unlike the current high-end mobile phone processing chips, HiSilicon mainly designed router chips and network device modems. It was not until early 2014 that the Kirin processor was officially released. From the launch of Kirin 910 in 2014 to the Kirin 955 in 2016, HiSilicon's Kirin chip shipments exceeded 100 million, and it had exceeded 100 million in less than three years.

"Huawei's chips mainly come from three sources, namely Kirin produced by TSMC, which purchases other manufacturers such as Qualcomm and MediaTek in the United States. The third is the inventory of the first two items." Kang Zhao said.

There is no doubt that the company that has the greatest impact on Huawei is TSMC.TSMC is the world's largest chip foundry company and masters the latest 5nm process technology. Both Apple and Nvidia need to cooperate with it. Huawei is also an important customer of TSMC. For Huawei, if TSMC loses its support, Huawei mobile phones will be unsustainable. Even if the country already has companies like SMIC, it is difficult for it to meet the production needs of high-end chips.

At present, the world's advanced chip process processes are 28nm, 14nm, 10nm and 7nm.

September 8, at the China Information Technology Innovation Huangpu Forum held in Guangzhou, Academician Ni Guangnan said that although we are currently "bottlenecked" in the 7nm chip process, relying on our current strength, we can still produce chips with 14nm or 28nm technology. In other words, Huawei still has a way out, and it will not be available without chips.

According to Academician Ni Guangnan, "China already has a 28nm lithography machine." This is indeed good news for Huawei.

However, Kang Zhao believes that if the 14nm or 28nm chip process is used on Huawei chip processors, Huawei's mobile phone competitiveness may be weakened. However, for some semiconductor fields that are not very high in process technology but are still urgently needed, such as the screen driver chip field, memory chip field, etc., the 14nm or 28nm chip process is sufficient.

"Only SMIC in China has the ability. However, companies that use American technology cannot produce Huawei." Kang Zhao said that the only SMIC in China that realizes the 14nm chip process still uses ASML lithography machine. In other words, SMIC cannot rashly supply companies such as Huawei and other entities that are included in the entity list under the US restrictions.

Regarding the question of whether Huawei phones will increase prices under the ban, Kang Zhao pointed out, "The official will not increase prices. It is mainly because dealers raise prices. There will be cases where dealers are more expensive than official channels, but it is just an individual phenomenon."

On mainstream e-commerce platforms, the reporter saw that most Huawei phones can be purchased directly, without the words "inventory tight".

Independent research and development is imminent

Build a self-controlled chip supply chain as soon as possible has become a necessary option for Huawei.

"This is a double-edged sword, which will also force Huawei to continue to rise in R&D." Kang Zhao pointed out that Huawei has this strength and needs external force to force it.

htmlOn September 10, Wang Chenglu, president of Huawei's Consumer Business Software Department, publicly responded at the developer conference, "The technology involved in chip issues is very complex, and Huawei must have difficulties in this area, there is no doubt. The chip issues give companies reflection, and no choice is the best choice."

"Kirin chips are mainly used in Huawei mobile phones' Mate and P series." Kang Zhao emphasized that Kirin is mainly on high-end mobile phones, so independent research and development is imminent. Previously, TSMC was also urging Huawei to place more orders as much as possible before the chip ban takes effect. This part of the orders are mainly used for the Kirin 9000 chips on Mate40 series mobile phones, but the total amount of this batch of chips is about 10 million. In fact, this is just Huawei's chip usage for half a year.

According to data from three analytical agencies, Canalys, IDC and Counterpoint, Huawei has become the world's highest-shipped mobile phone manufacturer in the second quarter of this year. This is also the first time in the past nine years that there have been manufacturers other than Samsung and Apple in the global mobile phone market, leading the global smartphone market. Under the ban on

, the most popular thing is whether Huawei Mate40 will be affected, and will the press conference originally scheduled for October be held as scheduled? In response, Yu Chengdong said on his personal Weibo, "Please wait a little longer, everything will come as scheduled."

Previously, many industry experts said that the Mate40 equipped with the Kirin 9000 chip will become the most powerful mobile phone and will also create the most glorious moment for Huawei phones. If the chip supply problem cannot be solved well, Mate40 may also become the "passing singer" of Huawei phones.

"But top flagships like Huawei Mate40 series must have a certain amount of inventory before they can hold a press conference. Even if production starts on September 15, it will take at least one month to achieve one million units, and this period also includes the capacity climbing period.The stock quantity of Huawei Mate40 should be greater than that of Huawei Mate40 Pro. The stock quantity of Huawei Mate40 Pro is not much, so if you want to buy it, you can only grab it. "Technology and Digital Blogger Kaiyu told the reporter of "Business School".

However, Huawei is not only restricted by chips, but also Google's supply cutoff, which means that Huawei phones can no longer be equipped with Android systems. Fortunately, Huawei has released the Hongmeng 2.0 system, but it is still in the testing stage. Huawei will provide developers with a test version of Hongmeng 2.0 mobile phone in December. Whether it can be really installed on mobile phones will not be known until next year .

But establishing a mobile operating system is an "ecological project" that requires the cooperation of many APP developers. If mainstream APPs cannot be adapted, consumers are unwilling to pay. Under the premise that Huawei's mobile phone chips are restricted and its market share may decline, it is still unknown whether application manufacturers have enough willingness to follow up.

"After this battle, Huawei will increasingly focus on the research and development of underlying technologies, and doing well will change the global landscape of mobile phones. Currently, mobile operating systems are all Android. Once Hongmeng succeeds, it will undoubtedly become the third largest system. "Kang Zhao emphasized that there is only one way before Huawei, which is to get rid of American products to build service capabilities.

"This crisis will also bring opportunities to domestic mobile phone manufacturers and storage companies on a large scale and increase R&D capabilities. "Kang Zhao pointed out that my country's storage industry is still in its early stages of development and cannot take on the heavy responsibility of self-sufficiency to meet the needs of Huawei's high-end product line. However, Huawei's crisis has also made all mobile phone manufacturers and chip companies see that my country must build a complete chip industry chain that belongs entirely to its own, otherwise it will encounter a survival crisis at any time.

The stock quantity of Huawei Mate40 should be greater than that of Huawei Mate40 Pro. The stock quantity of Huawei Mate40 Pro is not much, so if you want to buy it, you can only grab it. "Technology and Digital Blogger Kaiyu told the reporter of "Business School".

However, Huawei is not only restricted by chips, but also Google's supply cutoff, which means that Huawei phones can no longer be equipped with Android systems. Fortunately, Huawei has released the Hongmeng 2.0 system, but it is still in the testing stage. Huawei will provide developers with a test version of Hongmeng 2.0 mobile phone in December. Whether it can be really installed on mobile phones will not be known until next year .

But establishing a mobile operating system is an "ecological project" that requires the cooperation of many APP developers. If mainstream APPs cannot be adapted, consumers are unwilling to pay. Under the premise that Huawei's mobile phone chips are restricted and its market share may decline, it is still unknown whether application manufacturers have enough willingness to follow up.

"After this battle, Huawei will increasingly focus on the research and development of underlying technologies, and doing well will change the global landscape of mobile phones. Currently, mobile operating systems are all Android. Once Hongmeng succeeds, it will undoubtedly become the third largest system. "Kang Zhao emphasized that there is only one way before Huawei, which is to get rid of American products to build service capabilities.

"This crisis will also bring opportunities to domestic mobile phone manufacturers and storage companies on a large scale and increase R&D capabilities. "Kang Zhao pointed out that my country's storage industry is still in its early stages of development and cannot take on the heavy responsibility of self-sufficiency to meet the needs of Huawei's high-end product line. However, Huawei's crisis has also made all mobile phone manufacturers and chip companies see that my country must build a complete chip industry chain that belongs entirely to its own, otherwise it will encounter a survival crisis at any time.