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expected production capacity of 20,000 vehicles per month, and as a result, in the first quarter of its actual production...1,542 vehicles.
has been slightly better recently, with a stable production of 2,000 vehicles per week, but there is still a big gap from the 5,000 vehicles expected in the previous quarter's financial report. Why is the production capacity of
Model 3 so slack?
Musk finally spoke by himself: I was wrong, over-reliance on robots and underestimated humans.
Iron Man is still saying on Twitter that even if the cash flow is worrying, Tesla does not need to raise funds, and the company will turn losses into profits in the third and fourth quarters.
At the same time, he also gave a briefing to the owners of Model 3 reservations: because the demand is really higher than expected, the owners have to wait for another 3-6 months.
looks better?
over-reliance on machine automation
Tesla over-reliance on automation in Model 3, which has been reported before.
US investment bank Bernstein analyst Max Warburton and Toni Sacconaghi disclosed in their research report: Musk's excessive use of automation technology has made Tesla unable to expand its production capacity as soon as possible.
"Tesla has tried automatic assembly. We think the automation technology used by Tesla on the Model 3 production line is too ambitious. Few people have seen it, but we know: Tesla spends twice as much on unit production capacity as traditional OEMs."
In addition to automated stamping, spray painting and welding, Tesla also tries to automatically complete the final assembly process and assemble various components into the car.
sounds beautiful, but the result is a little backfired.
The report says that automation technology is very costly and from a statistical perspective, it shows a negative correlation with quality.
If Tesla wants to automatically complete the final assembly process of 50%, it can only reduce labor by about 5 hours.
can save $150 based on the salary of $30 per worker.
However, even if capital and regulation allow them to hire fewer workers, Tesla will still need technical engineers to manage, program and maintain the robot, spending an extra $100 an hour.
In fact, the net labor cost savings per vehicle are only $50. But to deploy automation in factories, the unit capital expenditure required seems to be $4,000 more than conventional factories. If the product is used for 7 years, an additional $550 per unit will be generated. It is difficult to see economic benefits from this.
So what exactly makes Tesla obsessed with so much? Musk didn't say it himself.
However, people familiar with the Iron Man style may guess that Musk, who shouted "This planet is not worthy of my death", hopes to produce Tesla on Mars in the future, so automation may be the best way to reduce costs and increase efficiency.
However, the timing was wrong. I tried the waters on a large scale with Model 3, and I really took a big risk.
△ Tesla's stock price in one year will not turn a profit or be acquired
Model 3 is not only a step to "accelerate the global transformation to sustainable energy", but also an important step for the company's products to move towards thousands of households and the revenue level will reach a higher level. Since the release of
Model 3, Tesla's stock price has soared one after another, even surpassing many century-old car companies, becoming one of the world's highest market value.
However, this step is too big and it touches the company's roots.
Due to the inability to keep up with the production capacity, mass production cannot be delivered on time, and major cash flow problems have begun to arise.
In the latest fiscal quarter, Tesla lost US$675 million, which is about RMB 4.2 billion. A year ago, Tesla's loss was only $120 million.
In other words, in the past quarter, Tesla lost RMB 46 million a day.
What's worse is that the production capacity of Model 3 has not improved for a long time. In addition to the accident scandal and Model S recall, Tesla has been downgraded by Moody's in bond rating, and Tesla's stock price has also declined, suffering from a double kill of stocks and bonds.
htmlTesla's stock price has fallen by 24.86% so far in March, running wildly on the road to its worst performance since its IPO in 2010.Wall Street has continuously analyzed research reports: Tesla's cash loss this year is expected to be in the range of US$3 billion to US$6 billion, and there will be capital expenditures of US$4 billion to US$6 billion.
All of them are coming, and Tesla's cash flow may be $10 billion, and at the current rate of burning money, funds will run out by the end of this summer.
This is a critical spring!
So when Wall Street goes to Silicon Valley, the news that is rumoring is getting more and more like that: Once Tesla Model 3 is mass-produced, it still cannot be solved. Apple, which has a lot of cash flow, will directly acquire it, or there is also a need for Alphabet.
, which needs to buy "car manufacturers", of course, there is another way, allowing Tesla to have more autonomy: issue additional stocks.
But the potential risks are also obvious. If the additional issuance and financing, the equity will be diluted. If the stock price continues to fall, investors may sell it and the equity will be further diluted. This cycle may be worse than being acquired by Apple or Alphabet.
But now, Musk has come out to take a heart-boosting agent himself.
"There is no need to raise funds. From the third quarter, Tesla will turn losses into profits."
Iron Man also did not forget to pay homage to the owner of the booking: The demand is too strong. Waiting for another 3-6 months will allow you to drive Model 3.
Hope so.
△ After Musk's speech, Tesla's stock price rose by 2.13%
—End —
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