In the early trading of December 3, " Tesla concept stock" day auto model opened at the limit. Although there was an intraday rebound, it closed down again. The day before, the stock had closed the board and hit the daily limit for five consecutive days. In addition to the previous positive news, analysts believe that due to the recent battle between the long and the shortest new energy vehicles, many parties may have started shipments.
Hand in hand with state-owned assets and benefits?
Public information shows that Tian Automobile Mould is the world's largest automotive covering parts mold supplier. The company acquired a well-known German mold company in 2013. Since its downstream customers include Tesla and other car companies, it is also regarded by the market as a concept stock of Tesla . After the announcement of "holding hands" with local state-owned assets at the end of last month, the stock price of -day auto model continued to rise. On November 26, the -day auto model resumed trading. Until December 2, the stock price hit the daily limit for five consecutive trading days, compared with the low point in early November, and the -day auto model html rose by more than 80% in February.
On November 23, Tianqimo announced that the controlling shareholder is planning the transfer of control, and the shares to be transferred are expected to account for 17.70% of the company's total share capital. The transaction may involve a change in the company's control, and the counterparty is a state-owned industrial investment company. Then on November 24, the company's stocks and convertible bonds began to suspend trading of . On the evening of November 25, -day auto model announced the results of the transfer of control, and the company's stock resumed trading from November 26.
Tianqimode previous announcement stated that the company's controlling shareholder and Zhumadian Industrial Investment Group signed the "Tianjin Automobile Mold Co., Ltd. Control and Equity Transfer Intent Agreement". Zhumadian Industrial Investment Group intends to acquire a total of 162 million shares of Chang Shiping and its joint actors, accounting for 17.70% of the total share capital of Tianqimode , and the transfer price is 7.33 yuan per share. After the completion of this equity transfer, Zhumadian Industrial Investment Group will become the largest shareholder of Tianqimo with a shareholding ratio of 17.7%. Tian Automobile stated in the announcement that if the above-mentioned equity transfer is finally implemented, the company's controlling shareholder will become the Industrial Investment Group and the company's actual controller will be changed to the Zhumadian Municipal People's Government.
As of the close of November 23, the share price of Tianqimo was 4.31 yuan per share, with a total market value of 3.9 billion yuan. Analysts believe that the transfer price of 7.33 yuan per share is nearly 70% premium to the closing price before the suspension.
Tesla bearish sound gradually
December 1, Tesla CEO O Elon Musk warned in an email to employees that the company must control its spending to continue to achieve quarterly profits, otherwise Tesla 's share price will collapse immediately.
Musk said that although positive net income has been recorded for five consecutive quarters, the real profit margin of Tesla is quite low, only about 1%. The rising stock price comes from investors' expectations for future profits, rather than actual performance. Musk wrote in the letter: If the investment believes that their expectations will not happen, " Tesla stock will be crushed immediately, like a soufflé under a sledgehammer." However, things are not over. On December 2, Michael Burry, the "big short seller" who predicted the real estate crash in 2008, said on social media that he was shorting Tesla . He also advised Musk to cash out quickly on social media, "I am shorting Tesla , but I want to give some free suggestions to good people like you... If there is a buyer, sell it quickly." Subsequently, asset management company Copal Capital retweeted Barry's tweet and said: "We are also shorting Tesla . For now, we even let this short position exceed our usual position."
On Tuesday, US stocks, Tesla plummeted 7.45% on the opening, and then the decline narrowed, eventually closing down 2.73%, and the market value evaporated by more than 10 billion yuan.
The stock price continues to soar, and the market has made some jokes about "faith in new energy vehicles". Some netizens wrote a joke saying that KFC, Meituan and Ideal Auto, the three recently popular companies can form a "inexhaustible" closed loop between each other. "Who says humans do not have perpetual motion machine ?"
has overvalued?
As the continuous surge, the concept of "high-flying" new energy vehicle has discouraged many people. Has the stock price been deviated from reality and a clear "bubble" has appeared? Discussions on this are ongoing in the market.
BCI International Hong Hao recently stated: In the 14th Five-Year Plan, the government has introduced many favorable policies. Under the influence of so many favorable policies, new energy vehicles are rising rapidly. But you still need to think about how many cars are needed in this world? How to replace the original old energy vehicle, etc.
He said that this is a long-term thing, but the market can often digest a 10-year opportunity in 10 days. If you make money in the early stage, you can actually make a profit and wait and see.
A private equity fund manager said in an interview that it is difficult to judge the trend of the new energy vehicle sector now. "The current market value of Tesla is the sum of the market value of many traditional car companies. From a rational point of view, there must be bubbles. But from a trading perspective, the entire sector has entered the stage of trend trading, that is, everyone is engaged in price games, and there is bubble, but it is in trend, so we can only say wait and see."
Shenzhen private equity Shangshan Ruoshui Chairman Hou Anyang pointed out that it is not sure when this wave of market will end. "By intuition, new energy vehicles may enter the later stage of speculation, but who knows where the end of the sky is." Hou Anyang said that the fluctuations in Tesla were very severe, and it plummeted by 30% in 5 trading days. Regarding how to "hold big fluctuations and get off at the right time", "holding the concept of new energy vehicles requires faith."
In this regard, Yang Delong believes that "a new field may produce a certain valuation bubble. In fact, after the valuation bubble, it will attract more capital to invest. In, there will be survival of the fittest in the end. A truly successful leading company will bring considerable returns to investors. Some failed companies will exit the market. Each round of technological progress is accompanied by the process of the emergence of bubbles and the survival of the fittest after the bubble bursts. The new energy vehicle industry is no exception. Compared with other technological directions, new energy vehicles have both consumption and technological nature, and have certain performance support, and the development direction is relatively clear. "
is still optimistic?
However, some institutions believe that the bubble of new energy vehicle concept stocks has not arrived and is currently in an upward channel for prosperity. The latest automobile production and sales data also show that the industry as a whole is still in a period of rapid development.
Jiashen Fund’s fund manager Yao Zhipeng believes that new energy is based on the power generation and application. Among them, the economic recovery of the power generation terminal has been in the second half of 2018. It has been two years since then. The industry's production capacity supply has begun to increase, and the uncertainty of subsequent competition has increased, and there is a possibility of economic fluctuations. However, new energy vehicles have undergone 4 years of adjustment, and the latest quarter has just entered a channel of upward prosperity. It is still a long time before the industry pattern changes and the economic fluctuations are fluctuating downward.
Kaiyuan Securities stated that as an upgrade and major change in a large consumer industry, the prosperity of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to rise in the next one or two years, and it is easy to form a capital market bubble. It is expected that the specific bubble direction will be from terminal car companies to mid-to-upstream materials and components, from first-line links to second-line links, from deterministic sectors to fuzzy sectors. The core of the long-term investment direction is Tesla , Ningde era industrial chain; in the short term, the focus will continue to be on cyclical links and second-tier companies: lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium carbonate, Zhongke Electric, new car manufacturing forces, high-quality supply chains, etc.
Recently, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers announced that the sales of new energy vehicles in October were 160,000, up 105% year-on-year and 14% month-on-month. Among them, the sales of new energy passenger cars were 148,000, up 113% year-on-year and 16% month-on-month.
New Era Securities pointed out that new domestic new energy vehicle models have been launched intensively, and overseas subsidies have been increased to help new energy vehicle consumption recover. In October, the sales of major car manufacturers such as BYD and new car manufacturing forces were impressive, and it is expected that the overall new energy vehicle industry will continue to maintain an upward trend.
(Article source: Oriental Wealth Research Center)
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