Reporter of the Economic Business: Ren Fei Editor of the Economic Business: Peng Shuiping
Last week, the news that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 375 basis points once again disturbed the investment community. In addition to affecting equity investment, bonds and futures bonds were also affected. For the domestic bond market, this round of hike rate may further affect the selling sentiment of the bond market. However, from the institutional analysis, the Fed's interest rate hike has limited impact on the bond market.
. In terms of convertible bonds, some institutions have analyzed that some industries have low overall valuations and investment opportunities. Guosen Securities analysis pointed out that many negative factors at present (such as the normalization of epidemic disturbances, Federal Reserve tightening, etc.) may have been fully reflected in the stock price, and there is limited room for further decline in the market, and there are structural market opportunities.
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Bond market One week review
Last week (9.19-9.25), the bond market showed a narrow range of fluctuations in the market under a weak rebound. The main reason is that considering the tight balance of tax period and cross-season liquidity, the central bank began to release cross-season funds, and the interbanks showed that the capital center was shifting upward, and the supply and demand of funds were gradually balanced.
Funding, last week, the central bank's open market invested a total of 100 billion yuan, with a total of 8 billion maturity and a net injection of 92 billion yuan. The open market operation seven-day reverse repurchase interest rate is 2%. The overall capital market remains neutral and loose. Last week, the overnight weighting rate of pledged repurchase remained at 1.5%, and the overnight seven-day weighting rate of pledged repurchase remained at 1.5%.
primary market. Last week, a total of 21 interest-rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 341.33 billion and a net financing of 149.62 billion. Among them, China's bonds issued a total of 255.53 billion yuan, net financing of 139.07 billion yuan, local bonds issued a total of 85.8 billion yuan, and net financing of 10.55 billion yuan. This week, it is expected that the total issuance of interest-rate bonds will be 108.47 billion yuan and the net financing will be 27.04 billion yuan, which is at a lower level compared with previous single-week quotas.
secondary market. Last week, the 220010 of the ten bonds were in a volatile market of 2.6525-2.6975. In terms of monetary policy, in terms of open market operations, the central bank has put down 2 billion 7-day reverse repurchase and began to release 14-day cross-month liquidity. The capital side is neutral and loose, and the overnight capital price remains around 1.5%.
Looking ahead to the future market, Oriental Jincheng analysis pointed out that the downward pressure on the economy still exists, the core is that the downward momentum of real estate has not stopped. At the same time, weak consumption and increased downward pressure on exports are also worth paying attention to. There is still a need for stable growth policies to continue to work to provide more support for economic recovery. Based on this, it is expected that subsequent monetary policy will continue to maintain a loose orientation, especially considering that in order to boost the recovery of the property market, the possibility of the central bank lowering interest rates again in the fourth quarter still exists.
pure bond fund investment returns have increased
This week, the yield of bond funds increased compared with the previous week, mainly reflected in pure bond funds. Wind statistics show that the short-term pure bond fund index rose by 0.03% last week, an increase from the 0.02% level in the previous week; the medium- and long-term pure bond fund index rose by 0.06%, a significant increase from the previous week.
. In terms of equity-inclusive bond funds, the yield of mixed bond secondary funds continued to decline last week, but the decline narrowed during the week. Statistics show that the mixed bond secondary fund index fell by 0.26% last week, which fell by more than 1% compared with the decline of mixed bond secondary funds last week.
Source: Wind Statistics (Time: 9.19-9.25)
Subdivision, in the past half month, among the above four major asset allocations, the income level within the week has changed rapidly, especially in the equity-inclusive debt funds, the top ten sequences often change. Some funds have drawn a large drawdown this week, but the reasons are analyzed, which are both the reasons for the further compression of the rate spread of and the impact brought by the stock market pullback.
. In terms of bonds, based on the observation of futures bond data, Oriental Securities analysis pointed out that the overall futures bonds show a trend of rising first and then falling. Last Monday, the central bank conducted a 14-day reverse repurchase operation, while the scale of reverse repurchase increased on Tuesday, and the market's long sentiment fermented, and the bond market was running strongly. Russia issued a mobilization order last Wednesday, with risk aversion rising and futures bonds continuing to rise. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve stated that it was neutral and the domestic bond market adjusted slightly. As the yield on US bond continued to rise, the RMB exchange rate depreciated rapidly, and the bond issue fell sharply on Friday.As of the close of September 23, the settlement prices of the main contracts of the two-year, five-year and ten-year treasury bond futures were 101.19 yuan, 101.81 yuan and 101.25 yuan respectively, which were +0.055, +0.080 and +0.00 yuan respectively compared with last weekend.
However, in terms of convertible bonds, some institutions have given positive investment signals. Guosen Securities analyzed that based on the current convertible bond stock price and Wind's consistent expected net profit, the static and dynamic valuation of convertible bond stocks (n=299) with profit forecasts is calculated. The top first-tier industries in PE (22E) include beauty care (60.25x), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (42.20x), social services (39.69x), food and beverage (37.33x), bank (5.37x) and commercial retail (14.50x) convertible bonds with valuations below the end of April.
In Guosen Securities' view, the valuations of most industries have been adjusted to historical lows. Many negative factors (such as the normalization of epidemic disturbances, the tightening of the Federal Reserve, etc.) may have been fully reflected in the stock price, and the market has limited room for further decline. In the future, the market may gradually transition to finding where incremental demand is in the fourth quarter and 2023.
looks forward to the next trend of the bond market, Dongsheng Futures said that the bond market is expected to face certain adjustment pressure in the near future: the performance of high-frequency data such as bill interest rates in the recent period is not bad, which may indicate that various economic and financial indicators in September may improve marginally; the pressure on RMB depreciation has not been fully released; in order to avoid uncertainty during the National Day holiday, some institutions may reduce their holdings of bonds next week and hold coins for the holiday; the capital market may face convergence during the cross-season period. However, due to economic recovery or twists and turns, the bond market has relatively limited adjustments, and there is still a possibility of strengthening in the medium term.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike has limited impact on the bond market
Last week, the news that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points once again disturbed the investment community. In addition to affecting equity investment, bonds and futures bonds were also affected. For the domestic bond market, the Federal Reserve's current round of interest rate hikes may further affect the selling sentiment of the bond market. However, from the institutional analysis, the Fed's interest rate hike has limited impact on the bond market.
It should be pointed out that the reason why interest rate hikes will cause the country's bonds to fall is because the face value and face interest rate of the bonds are fixed. After the interest rate hike, the face interest rate of the bonds issued will be high. At this time, the bonds issued will be sold, which will cause the bond price to be less than 100 yuan. In short, an increase in demand will drive bond prices up, and a decrease in demand will cause bond prices to fall.
But some analysts pointed out that although the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike will cause the bond price to fall in the short term, so that bond funds will lose money, it has little influence on our country's bonds. The first is that China and the United States are two independent trading markets. Even if there is a certain impact in the short term, if our country also has corresponding policies, the two will offset each other. In addition, fund managers can adjust their positions, then the price of bonds may rise at this time.
In addition, after the Fed enters the interest rate hike cycle, our country still implements the loose monetary policy , so the bond trend is the same as before. If the Fed raises interest rates and our country also raises interest rates, bonds will fall in the short term.
In this regard, Tianfeng Securities analysis pointed out that, combined with historical review and drawing on the Japanese market, we found that the continued sharp inversion of the interest rate spread of local and foreign currencies does not necessarily lead to the continued depreciation of exchange rate . The prerequisite for the basic stability of the exchange rate is the stabilization of domestic economic fundamentals and policies to boost market confidence. Logically, only if the economy is stable and interest rates are stable can the exchange rate be stable. So the problem is not the interest rate spread, but ourselves.
looks forward to the future. Considering that the Fed has raised interest rates to a restricted interest rate level that is significantly higher than the neutral interest rate, we expect that domestic demand in the United States will gradually decline after the interest rate hike, but the economy still has a certain degree of resilience and there is little possibility of a rapid weakening. Inflation will remain high this year. It will not be until the end of the third quarter to the beginning of the fourth quarter next year that CPI and core CPI are expected to fall back to 2% year-on-year.
Daily Economic News
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