As we all know, in the past year, the global chip shortage has led to a huge increase in prices in the chip industry, so fabs have expanded production one after another, hoping to take the opportunity to make a big profit.
But good days are not long. Starting from the second half of 2022, the situation in the chip market seems to have reversed. Since the sales of mobile phones and PCs are not strong, the price increase has been seen from consumer electronic chips. Some products have fallen by as much as 90%. Most chip products have fallen back to the price before the price increase. At the same time, chip manufacturers have high inventory and have cut orders a lot.
So many media and institutions said that the entire wafer market may face the risk of overcapacity in the future. analysis agency Future Horizons even believes that the chip industry will decline by at least 25% next year.
On the one hand, the global chip market demand has slowed down, and chip manufacturers have cut orders, resulting in a decline in the capacity utilization rate of fabs. On the other hand, in the past few years, wafer fabs have frequently expanded production and built production lines, resulting in a significant increase in production capacity.
However, although the media said so, TSMC has never admitted that it said that overcapacity does not exist, and even stated that it would expand the production of mature processes by 50%.
In addition, TSMC is still continuously raising prices, and plans to increase the price of wafers by about 6% to 9% next year according to different processes, so as to show that its production capacity is not overcapacity.
But recently, UBS Securities helped TSMC expose a "lie", saying that due to the decline in market demand, the capacity utilization rate of TSMC's 7nm process next year may only be 70% in the first half of next year, which means that the capacity is really overcapacity.
and not only 7nm surplus, UBS Securities analysts said that TSMC's overall capacity utilization rate in the first half of next year may fall between 85% and 89%, which means that the other 10-15% of the production capacity is oversupply.
I wonder what everyone thinks about this? In fact, many institutions hold the same view on wafer overcapacity and believe that the decline in the chip industry may be unprecedented, and there are only two ways for wafer manufacturers to deal with this overcapacity: one is to reduce prices and the other is to reduce production capacity.
. TSMC does the opposite. If it wants to expand production, it also needs to raise prices, and "pretend" it to be unaffected. Will it actually be affected? It depends on the situation next year and next year. Anyway, revenue, profit, etc. will not lie.
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