Basic analysis
Analysis from the main influencing factors of the market, the following aspects have a great impact on the market price trend.
First, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has risen above 3.50% for the first time since 2011, as U.S. inflation trends strengthen the possibility that the Federal Reserve will take more radical tightening measures. Traders expect that the Fed's hike of 575 basis points this week is basically a foregone conclusion. There are also rumors that the Fed may raise interest rates by 100 basis points to curb price pressure. Even after the latest round of interest rate hikes, price pressures showed little signs of easing. Investors raised expectations about how much the Fed could eventually push policy interest rates to by early 2023. But there are growing concerns that the economy may fall into a recession and prompt policymakers to cut interest rates next year.
- Germany may receive LNG supplies from the UAE in the coming days as part of its efforts to offset Russia's supply cuts. German Deputy Prime Minister and Economic Minister Habek said on Monday that Prime Minister Scholz may sign a transport contract during a two-day trip to the Middle East, indicating that negotiations are going well, especially with the UAE. Habek said that the supply of natural gas is gradually expanding and the government is in long-term negotiations with many countries. Since the Russian-Ukraine conflict, Germany and Qatar Qatar have been negotiating possible LNG transport. So far, there has been no sign of a breakthrough in the negotiations. German government officials said negotiations with Qatar were particularly difficult. Qatar's strategy is to take a tough stance on the price and duration of potential agreements.
After the gold price fluctuated all the way to the low point of 1654 tonight, there was a short-term rebound. The lower low 1654 becomes the dividing line for the ultra-short-term market in the future. If the price is effective at 1654, it can again reach the relative high of 1680 in the short term; the US WTI crude oil fell from its high point to the low point of 81.60 and then rebounded. The previous high of 87.00 becomes the long-term boundary of the long-term market. It is still a bearish idea.
Technical analysis
Spot gold
Gold price today's price fluctuates all the way down to the low point of 1654, and there will be a short-term rebound; the 1-hour technical indicator MACD golden cross sticks; the US market is recommended to focus on the support of the 1654 line below. If this support is effective, gold will continue to rise to the 1680 line. On the contrary, if this support is effectively fallen below by , it may fall to a new low again in the future.
trading ideas for the future market in the US: the idea of rebounding under pressure and shorting;
upper resistance: 1680, 1692
lower support: 1654, 1645
Spot silver
silver price fluctuated slightly from the high point of 19.65; the 1-hour technical indicator MACD dead cross sticks to the decline; it is recommended to focus on the support of the 19.10 line in the future. If this support is effective, gold will continue to rise to the 19.70 line. On the contrary, if this support is effectively broken, it may fall to the previous low again in the future.
U.S. market trading ideas: the idea of rebounding under pressure and trying to short;
upper resistance: 19.70, 19.95
lower support: 19.10, 18.80
U.S. crude oil
U.S. crude oil price fell from the high point to the low point of 81.60 and then rebounded; the 1-hour technical indicator MACD dead cross down, and it is recommended to focus on the pressure at the early stage of 87.00. If the pressure can be successfully under pressure, the idea of maintaining high altitudes in the short term.
trading ideas for the future of the US market: high-altitude ideas for rebound;
resistance above: 87.00, 88.60
support below: 81.70, 80.60
Euro against the US dollar
Euro against the US dollar fell by a low of 0.9964 twice and showed a slight rebound; 1-hour technical indicator MACD dead cross stuck; it is recommended to focus on the pressure at the 1.0035 line in the future. If this pressure is effective, the euro against the US dollar will continue to be under pressure and hit the previous low of 0.9930 line; on the contrary, if this pressure is effectively broken, the market will continue to hit the upper high point in the future.
After-market trading ideas for US market: low-bang thinking; upper resistance of
: 1.0035, 1.0060
support below: 0.9944, 0.9930
USD yen
USD yen 5
USD yen slight pressure and fall after hitting a high of 143.63; one-hour indicator MACD is stuck in dead cross, and the US market focuses on the pressure at the top 143.79 line above. If the price rebounds to this pressure near this pressure, you can consider trying to short positions.
trading ideas for the future U.S. market: high-altitude ideas for rebound;
upper resistance: 143.79, 144.95
lower support: 142.20, 141.50
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