Whether the market can confirm that it has bottomed out will ultimately depend on changes in the national epidemic trend, as well as economic fundamentals. Under the relay of stabilizing growth policies, whether the growth rate and structure of social financing can be substantially improved.
Article | "Finance" reporter Yang Xiuhong, Zhang Xinpei and Guo Edited by Nan Huang Huiling
| Wang Lifeng Lu Ling
Overseas geopolitical conflicts, recurring epidemics, pressure on the performance of listed companies, Federal Reserve interest rate hikes ... Various factors are intertwined, and A-shares have survived a difficult start in 2022.
data shows that in the first four months of this year, A-shares experienced three rounds of substantial adjustments. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 16.28%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index fell by 25.82%, the GEM Index fell by 30.20%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell by 32.26%. %.
What is even more unexpected is that a large number of high-quality white horse stocks , which are regarded as "ballast stones" by the market, have also seen a sharp decline in their stock prices: CATL's has fallen below one trillion yuan in market value, is expensive The stock price of Moutai fell from a high price of 2,600 yuan/share last year to around 1,600 yuan/share...
As the stock index and stock price fell, the market value of listed companies also evaporated. The evaporated market value in the first four months was close to 20 trillion yuan. According to statistics from " Finance" reporters, as of April 30, the total market value of the A-share market (excluding new shares) was 72.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 18.9 trillion yuan compared with 91.8 trillion yuan at the end of 2021.
htmlOn May 6, affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and the sharp decline in US stocks overnight, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,000 points again during the session.
"Since the beginning of this year, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has continued to ferment, global commodity prices have soared, inflationary pressure has increased in many major economies, and the Federal Reserve and other developed economies central banks have accelerated the pace of tightening. The domestic and international environment is complex and uncertain. The epidemic has intensified, rising interest rates in overseas economies have limited the scope for domestic interest rate cuts, rising prices of upstream raw materials have raised manufacturing operating costs, the epidemic has dragged down logistics and transportation efficiency, increased employment pressure on residents, and increased economic uncertainty has dragged down consumption and investment." Huaxing said. Pang Ming, chief economist and chief strategist of Securities (Hong Kong), told Caijing reporters.
Market pessimism has gradually accumulated in fluctuations, and policies have become an important source of restoring market confidence.
html On March 15, A-shares were adjusted significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3,000 points. Immediately afterwards, on March 16, the Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council (hereinafter referred to as the "Financial Committee") held a special meeting to respond to hot issues of market concern, and the market rebounded strongly.
The market continued to fall at the end of April, and policies once again injected a boost into the market. The Political Bureau meeting of the Central Committee held on April 29 made important decisions and arrangements regarding current epidemic prevention and control policies, macro policies, real estate, platform economy , capital markets, etc., emphasizing the need to accelerate the implementation of the policies that have been determined and to maintain capital stability. The market has reached new heights.
"A lot of good news was mentioned at the Politburo meeting, and relevant policies have a positive impact on platform companies, real estate companies, media companies, etc." Zeng Wanping, the macro strategy team leader of Huiquan Fund, told the Caijing reporter: "The most important of them is What exceeded market expectations was the regulatory policy on the platform economy. The content of this meeting did not emphasize the prevention of disorderly expansion of capital. Zhang', but to 'support the standardized and healthy development of the platform economy', which will undoubtedly give Internet platform companies a reassurance and also have a great boost to the capital market. "
" From a long-term perspective, this meeting made it clear. It has strengthened the strategic position of the capital market and is a strong support for long-term system construction," said Wei Fengchun, chief economist of Chuangjin Hexin Fund.
With the continuous release of “stable growth” policy signals, market concerns began to gradually ease and confidence began to be restored. Many interviewed institutions believe that the current A-share market has survived the worst scenario expectations, but they are still cautious about the future market direction.
China Asset Management believes that the rebound will not happen overnight. Whether the market can confirm that it has bottomed out will ultimately depend on changes in the national epidemic trend and whether economic fundamentals can substantively improve the growth rate and structure of social financing under the relay of stabilizing growth policies.
"A package of policies and measures to stabilize growth will help cope with the complex situation of a century of changes and a century's epidemic, and stabilize market expectations and market sentiment. If the epidemic prevention and control situation can continue to improve, April will be the best month for the entire year's economy At a low point, the subsequent economic fundamentals will provide support to the market," Cheng Qiang, chief macro analyst at CITIC Securities, told a reporter from Caijing.
A senior private equity person told a reporter from Caijing: "The market decline in the first four months of this year is, to a certain extent, a manifestation of concerns about the future economy. The prerequisite for a restorative market after the market has bottomed out is that the market has bottomed out. Completed, and what we need to do now is to wait for the bottoming to be completed. "
A-shares have had a bleak start.
Pessimism and disappointment can summarize investors' sentiment towards A-shares in the first four months of 2022.
On the first trading day of 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3632.33 points, and this has become the highest point so far. Subsequently, A shares began a downward process. During this period, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced three stages of significant decline.
The first stage is from January 18 to January 28, when the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 5.09%. The violent fluctuations in the external stock market and the risk aversion mentality of funds before the Spring Festival have led to this round of decline in A shares.
But what I didn’t expect was that a bigger drop was yet to come.
html The conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out in December, and the global capital market was affected. At the same time, in accordance with the "Foreign Company Accountability Act", the US Securities Regulatory Commission continues to add Chinese concept stocks to the list of companies to be delisted. As Chinese concept stocks may face widespread delisting, coupled with market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, market funds once again chose to withdraw, and A-shares fell sharply again.
Wind data shows that from March 1 to March 15, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 11.51%, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell by 14.26%, and the GEM Index fell by 13.07%.
Subsequently, A shares rebounded, but unfortunately, this rebound did not last long. On April 6, A shares began their third decline. From April 6 to April 26, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 12.07%. During this period, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below the important mark of 3,000 points.
Factors such as the continued fermentation of geopolitical conflicts, the accelerated tightening pace of the Federal Reserve, recurring epidemics, and lower-than-expected central bank reserve ratio and interest rate cuts have once again touched the fragile nerves of A-shares. Fortunately, after only losing four trading days, A shares regained 3,000 points. As of the close of trading on May 6, the Shanghai Composite Index was once again in danger of 3,000 points.
"In fact, before the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the recurrence of the epidemic, there was already a problem of continued decline in investor risk preference. And the decline in risk preference will affect the downward movement of valuations." Li Xunlei, chief economist of Zhongtai Securities told "Finance" reporter said.
The occurrence of two unexpected events has made investors’ risk appetite lower and lower. According to Wind statistics, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 16.28% in the first four months of this year, and achieved a 4.8% increase in 2021.
All other important indexes also fell sharply. The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 25.82%, the GEM Index fell by 30.20%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 was at the bottom with a decline of 32.26%. The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index and the GEM Index were among the leading decliners among major global indexes.
The market style has changed. The small and medium-sized caps that are highly sought after in 2021 have been abandoned by funds this year. In 2021, the representative indexes of small and medium-sized caps CSI 1000 and CSI 500 will increase by 20.52% and 15.58% respectively in 2021. Among the important indexes, the increases rank among the top two. But this year, the declines of the two were 28.41% and 23.53% respectively, which were the largest declines.
Large blue chip stocks that fell last year continue to fall this year. However, the decline was much lower than that of small and mid-caps. The two important indexes of large blue-chip stocks, , Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, and Shanghai Stock Exchange 180, fell by 14.32% and 15.15% respectively.
Amidst the general decline in the market, coal has become the most resilient sector, rising 12.05% in a weak market. Ranking second on the list is the real estate industry, which achieved a slight increase of 1.47%. The smallest decline was in banks, which fell slightly by 0.03%.
According to Wind data statistics, among the 31 first-level industry classifications of Shenwan, 29 industries have experienced declines. The four industries of national defense and military industry, power equipment , electronics, and computers all fell by more than 30%. The national defense and military industry led the market with a 34.02% decline. There were 14 industries with a decline between 20% and 30%, and only 5 industries with a decline of less than 10%.
From the perspective of stocks , nearly 90% of individual stocks fell. Wind data shows that 4,314 stocks fell in the first four months of this year, accounting for 89.82%, and 257 stocks fell by more than 50%.
Only 478 stocks rose, and 45 stocks rose more than 50%. Among them, 11 companies have increased by more than 100%. Among these 11 companies, 3 companies are from the pharmaceutical and biological industry, and 2 companies are from the construction and decoration industry.
Whether it is large-cap blue chip stocks or growth stocks, their stock prices have suffered heavy losses, and their market value has evaporated severely. The market value of CATL has fallen below one trillion yuan, its market value has evaporated by more than 400 billion yuan, and its stock price has dropped from its previous peak of nearly 700 yuan per share to less than 400 yuan per share.
The new energy sector, represented by CATL, suffered a heavy setback. According to Wind data, in the first four months of this year, the new energy sector fell by 33.33%, and the new energy vehicle sector fell by 31.35%. Funding enthusiasm has waned.
The new energy sector represented by CATL has suffered a heavy setback. Picture/Visual China
Kweichow Moutai has also fallen below the 2,000 yuan/share mark, and its market value has evaporated by nearly 300 billion yuan. At the end of 2021, Kweichow Moutai’s market value was 2.58 trillion yuan. However, Kweichow Moutai is still the only A-share listed company with a market value of more than 2 trillion yuan.
Kweichow Moutai has fallen below the 2,000 yuan/share mark, and its market value has evaporated by nearly 300 billion yuan. Picture/IC
According to statistics from Caijing reporters, as of April 30, the total market value of the A-share market (excluding new shares) was 72.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 18.9 trillion yuan compared with 91.8 trillion yuan at the end of 2021.
The continuous setbacks of A-shares have also made it a thing of the past to make a steady profit without losing money.
According to Wind data, 36 of the 122 new stocks listed since the beginning of this year fell below the issue price on the first day of listing. Especially in March and April, new stocks broke more frequently. The number of new stocks that broke in March was 12. In April, 17 new stocks broke their IPOs on their first day of listing.
html On April 12, the new stock Weijie Chuangxin was listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board . However, on the first day of listing, the stock price suffered a sharp decline at the opening . As of the close, Weijie Chuangxin's share price fell by 36.04%. Haichuang Pharmaceutical, which was listed on the same day, also closed with a decline of 29.87%.
All broken stocks are from the Science and Technology Innovation Board and GEM , and these two boards are currently implementing the registration system . The issuance price of new shares under the registration system is more market-oriented, but the game between buyers and sellers is also more intense.
Regarding the reasons for the breakout of new shares, many analysts interviewed pointed out that on the one hand, it is due to the recent market slump and the low sentiment, and on the other hand, it is also related to the relatively high issue price of some new shares.
Pang Ming told the Caijing reporter that the market fluctuates greatly, investor confidence still lacks a solid foundation, and the wait-and-see mood is relatively strong. New stocks with aggressive pricing, unattractive fundamentals, stable long-term performance, and failure to establish an investment moat have a higher probability of breaking the market.
Industry insiders pointed out that behind the breakout of new stocks is the process of risk re-cognition and reconstruction, as well as the process of rebalancing the game of new stock pricing mechanisms. We should treat market breaks rationally and abandon the blind new model.
With the frequent breakout of new stocks, investors' enthusiasm for new stocks is also fading.
The number of valid subscription accounts for online investors announced by Sci-tech Innovation Board's new shares, Saiwei Microelectronics, is only 3.2 million, a decrease of 3 million from the previous peak of new share subscriptions, setting a new low this year. The number of subscriptions for new shares Zhongyi Technology has also decreased by nearly 5 million households compared with the peak.
The phenomenon of investors abandoning their purchases also continues to occur.
html Naxin Micro, which was just listed on April 22, encountered a large amount of abandonment by investors during the subscription process. The abandoned purchase funds reached 778 million yuan, setting a record for A-shares. The previous abandonment rate of Jingwei Hengrun also reached 10.87%.
Negative factors occur frequently
What is the main reason behind this round of sharp decline in the A-share market?
Many people interviewed by Caijing reporters believe that in addition to the influence of overseas market factors, from the perspective of the domestic environment, market concerns about the economy and the resulting pessimism have become important factors in this round of market decline.
On March 14, 2022, a large screen with stock market quotes was displayed on the streets of Shanghai. Picture / The Paper
“Before the Political Bureau meeting at the end of April, the market sentiment was extremely panicked.” Wei Fengchun told Caijing reporters, “Although policies to stabilize growth have sprung up, the market still expressed its support for the 5.5% growth target. Doubts about whether it can be realized; interpret the long-term system construction of the Shenzhen Reform Commission as short-term negative; worry that the dissociation of epidemic prevention and control strategies will increase the uncertainty of decision-making, And it is assumed that the consumption of public funds for epidemic prevention has led to insufficient power to stabilize growth. "
" The market decline since April is not only affected by the external market, but also a reaction to panic. First, the market has continued to create this round of adjustments. The second reason is that the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and lack of long-term strength," Ji Shuowen, investment director of Beijing Renaissance Fund, told Caijing reporters.
Ai Xiongfeng, a strategic analyst at the Guojin Securities Research Institute, said: "Compared with the early stage of the epidemic in the first quarter of 2020, the current market is overly pessimistic, even close to the level in the second half of 2018."
The performance of the economic level has become the focus of many interviewees The factor of worry has also become an important factor disturbing investor sentiment.
htmlSince 14 months, macroeconomic data for the first quarter of this year have been disclosed one after another. Market analysts believe that both the GDP growth in the first quarter and the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size across the country are mixed with joy.
Zhang Ming, deputy director of the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that from a macro data perspective, compared with January and February 2022, many data in March have declined significantly. The decline in March is closely related to the outbreak of this round of epidemic that month. Considering that the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta has continued to the present, the macro data in April is not optimistic.
Guosheng Securities believes that the profit data of enterprises above designated size in the first quarter is more worrying than good. Among them, the good news is that the overall profit growth rate is still high, profit margins have improved slightly, and the upstream and downstream structures have improved marginally; the worry is that the upstream squeeze on midstream and downstream profits is still serious, state-owned enterprises still squeeze private companies, and corporate leverage Continuous recovery.
The performance of A-share listed companies, which are regarded as outstanding representatives of Chinese enterprises, once worried the market.
Yi Huiman, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, recently made a public statement that revealed the difficult situation of listed companies this year. Yi Huiman said that currently, the external environment for the development of listed companies is undergoing complex and profound changes. Under the impact of multiple factors such as the epidemic of the century, the hard constraints such as cost, resources, and environment faced by the development of listed companies have continued to increase. The foundation for continued profit restoration is still not solid, and it is increasingly difficult to find optimal solutions under multiple constraints.
"The current market pricing logic has begun to shift to corporate profits at the molecular end." Ai Xiongfeng told Caijing reporters that in the first four months of this year, during the financial reporting season, the performance of some key companies was significantly lower than expected, triggering the market's basic concern for related industries. concerns.
As of April 30, most listed companies have disclosed their 2021 annual reports and 2022 first quarter reports.
According to statistics from Wind, as of May 5, there were 4,803 listed companies in the market. Except for a dozen companies that have not yet released their results, the rest of the companies have disclosed their first-quarter results. The operating income and net profit of these companies increased by 12.08% and 5.47% respectively year-on-year. This is significantly lower than the double-digit growth seen throughout last year.
According to the latest statistics from China Listed Companies Association , in 2021, listed companies achieved a total operating income of 64.97 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.81%; and a net profit of 5.30 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.56%.
“Since mid-February, sell-side analysts’ consensus expectations for overall A-share earnings in 2022 have continued to be revised downwards, with the implied full-year year-on-year growth rate falling from 20% in mid-February to around 14% currently.” Pang Ming said.
From a more microscopic perspective, the performance of some popular white horse stocks has exploded, which has aggravated market concerns.
Take CATL, the leading stock in the new energy industry, as an example: On the evening of April 29, CATL disclosed its first quarter performance report for 2022: the company achieved operating income of 48.678 billion yuan in the quarter, a year-on-year increase of 153.97%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.493 billion Yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.62%.
Its performance of "increasing revenue without increasing profits" was significantly lower than market expectations. This is also the first time that CATL has experienced a year-on-year decline in single-quarter performance since the third quarter of 2020.
On May 5, the first trading day after it released its first quarterly report, CATL’s stock price opened sharply lower by 10.83%, with the largest intraday drop of nearly 14%, hitting a new low in the past year.
Prior to this, the performance of another new energy white horse stock, Sungrow Power , was also "exploding". As the leader in photovoltaic inverters, Sungrow achieved operating income of 24.137 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 25.15%; net profit was 1.583 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.01%. The company also fell into the dilemma of "increasing revenue without increasing profits".
A senior public fund manager told a reporter from Caijing, "The performance of some white horse stocks was lower than expected, which put pressure on the performance of the GEM. This made the market start to worry about the performance of other companies in related sectors and chose to stay on the sidelines."
The impact of the epidemic on the macro economy and even individual companies has become one of the most worrying factors for those interviewed.
Ai Xiongfeng said that the market’s concerns about the epidemic come from two major aspects: First, the domestic epidemic has repeated, and the epidemic has spread in various places, and the market has increased concerns about the economy in the second quarter; second, the domestic epidemic has a greater impact on some industrial supply chains. Overseas orders have begun to gradually shift out of China to countries with smooth supply chains, such as Vietnam, India and other countries. The market is worried that domestic exports may be lower than expected.
Sun Haozhong, the fund manager of CITIC Prudential Fund, believes that China’s economic growth is currently showing great downward pressure. From a domestic perspective, the epidemic is still showing sporadic outbreaks across the country. There are still many uncertainties in the resumption of work and production in the Yangtze River Delta, and the supply chain is not smooth.
In addition, the increase in the scale of new stock issuance and the outflow of market funds have also put pressure on the market.
"Financial" reporters found based on Wind data statistics that based on the issuance date, as of May 5, a total of 116 companies have raised funds for the first time this year, with the cumulative amount of funds raised reaching 199.744 billion yuan. In the same period last year, 171 new shares were issued, and the total initial capital raised was 122.923 billion yuan. The amount raised this year increased by more than 60% compared with the same period last year.
"Against the background of sluggish market sentiment and market fluctuations, the pace of new share issuance can be adjusted appropriately to adapt to the market situation and maintain market stability." Pang Ming said: "It is necessary to avoid falsely high new share issuance prices and issuance price-to-earnings ratios. , It is also necessary to avoid oversupply of new shares in the secondary market, because in both cases the price may deviate significantly from the fundamentals. "
Every time the market falls sharply, the market will pay close attention to the flow of main funds. CITIC Securities’ research report on April 27 believes that small and medium-sized private equity hot money companies are the funds that reduced their holdings in this round of decline in April. It summarized the flow of mainstream funds in the first four months of this year as follows: public equity and large-scale private equity have basically completed position adjustments in the first quarter; foreign capital has resumed net inflows in late March; insurance, financial management and other absolute returns investors this year From January to February, the main body has completed reducing its positions; private equity hot money is still rapidly reducing its positions in April, and the current position has reached the lowest position since 2019.
“One of the adverse consequences of the panicked market decline and capital flight is that it may cause a stampede, causing the market to collapse." A senior private equity source told a reporter from Caijing: "This round of market decline has caused many private equity funds to fall below the forced liquidation line, and these funds have to sell; there are also many public funds that have suffered serious losses. It may trigger a larger wave of redemptions. The combination of these factors has made the market even worse. "
Policies continue to increase
In the internal and external environment with increasing uncertainty, the capital market will undergo several major adjustments in 2022. How to "stabilize the situation" and achieve "reform and attack", policy has become the key.
On the last trading day before the May Day holiday, a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee was held to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work, comprehensively deploy a series of measures to stabilize growth, and improve real estate policies, maintain the stability of the capital market and the platform economy The
meeting proposed that efforts should be made to implement key issues such as healthy development. Achieve the expected goals for economic and social development throughout the year, maintain the bottom line of no systemic risks, respond to market concerns in a timely manner, steadily promote the reform of the stock issuance registration system, actively introduce long-term investors, and maintain the smooth operation of the capital market. This will undoubtedly give the market a boost. The index returned to 3,000 points that day, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose nearly 10%.
Wei Feng. Chun told Caijing reporters that the most important points of this Politburo meeting are two points: First, it clarified the "traffic light" of capital and pointed out the correct path for capital represented by the platform economy. In the ascendant digital revolution, In the context of the situation, this move is of great significance. Second, it clarifies that long-term capital will enter the market, which will help the implementation of the value investment concept and benefit the company. The strengthening of governance is conducive to better coordinating the current prominent contradictions between short-term and long-term, scale and performance, and is conducive to improving the ecology of the asset management industry.
Unlike the past two years under the influence of the epidemic, capital market participants feel that this year. Since then, market volatility has increased, and at the same time, we can also feel that policies continue to be introduced To alleviate various concerns in the market
html On March 15, on the day when the Bureau of Statistics released better-than-expected macro data for January and February, A shares fell sharply under short-term pessimism, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell sharply. The drop was nearly 5%, approaching 3,000 points. The Hang Seng Technology Index’s cumulative decline in 2022 was nearly 40%.
The next day, policy enthusiasm arrived at noon on March 16, according to Xinhua News Agency news, the Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council convened. Thematic meetings studied macroeconomic operations, real estate, Chinese concept stocks and platform economy Governance, Hong Kong financial market stability and other issues of high market concern.
Regarding the governance of Chinese concept stocks and platform economics, the Financial Committee meeting gave a positive signal. At present, the regulatory agencies of China and the United States have maintained good communication and have achieved positive results. We are making progress and are working on forming specific cooperation plans to continue to support various companies to list overseas. We must steadily advance and complete the rectification work of large platform companies as soon as possible, and set up red and green lights to promote the stable and healthy development of the platform economy and improve international competitiveness.
The Financial Committee meeting emphasized that relevant departments must effectively shoulder their responsibilities, actively introduce policies that are beneficial to the market, and prudently introduce contractionary policies. Respond promptly to hot issues of market concern. Any policy that has a significant impact on the capital market should be coordinated with the financial management department in advance to maintain the stability and consistency of policy expectations.
On that day, market sentiment improved significantly, and A-shares and Hong Kong stocks began to rebound. The one-line and two sessions also immediately held special meetings to propose specific implementation measures.
"Although external disturbance factors still exist, the central government has introduced a package of policies to stabilize growth in response to short-term economic pressure. The Politburo meeting called for the urgent planning of incremental policy tools, increased camera control efforts, and grasped the advance of policies under the goal-oriented In the future, efforts to stabilize growth will be further increased, and efforts will be made to make up for the economic losses caused by the epidemic in local areas in March and April.The meeting also made further arrangements for issues of market concern such as improving real estate policy, capital market stability, and healthy development of the platform economy. It is expected that the policy will effectively control key risks, maintain the bottom line of no systemic risks, and target these areas with risks. Thinking and bottom-line thinking, we must do a good job in stabilizing growth and work together to promote economic stabilization and recovery. "Cheng Qiang told the Caijing reporter.
At the same time, the China Securities Regulatory Commission is also continuing to speak out to maintain the smooth operation of the market.
On April 9, Yi Huiman, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, delivered a speech at the third member representative conference of the Association of Listed Companies. , proposed that listed companies should improve five capabilities and adhere to the "four constants" in capital market development
"There are many favorable factors to promote the high-quality development of listed companies." "Yi Huiman said, "First, the synergy of macro policies to stabilize growth and stabilize expectations is growing; second, the market ecology of survival of the fittest is accelerating. In the past three years, a total of 77 companies have delisted, which is 6 times the number in the previous three years; third, the market ecology of survival of the fittest is accelerating. It is the capital market that is increasingly attractive to investors. The number of investors in the securities market has exceeded the 200 million mark. The proportion of domestic professional institutional investors and foreign capital holdings in outstanding shares has increased from 17.6% three years ago to 24.3%. %. "
In addition to the A-share market, Chinese companies in Hong Kong and US stocks have experienced greater fluctuations in the past few months in a more complex market environment, which is also the focus of policy attention.
On the evening of April 21, Fang Xinghai, Vice Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, answered a question from a reporter from Caijing at the Boao Forum for Asia 2022 Annual Conference sub-forum "China’s Capital Market Opening in Progress": "The decline in Chinese concept stocks is mainly due to the China-U.S. Audit supervision cooperation negotiations. The current negotiations are progressing very smoothly, and we are confident that a cooperation agreement will be reached in the near future. This uncertainty will soon be removed, which will be good news for Chinese concept stocks. "
Regarding the opening up of the capital market, Fang Xinghai said that the success of "bringing in" largely depends on the fundamentals of China's economy and China's opening policy. The fundamentals of China's long-term economic development will not change. It will also continue to expand high-level opening up to the outside world.
"From 2019 to 2021, China introduced 887.4 billion yuan of foreign capital into the stock market, and the net inflow of foreign capital this year is still considerable. "Fang Xinghai said. In the face of changes in the internal and external environment and increased market volatility, short-term outflows of foreign capital occurred. Fang Xinghai gave a positive response, "There is a familiar process for foreign investment in China. Sometimes when new policies are introduced, they will panic and will Leave for a short time. It doesn’t matter if you leave, you will come back after a while. "
In addition, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has launched a series of reform measures that are conducive to the long-term development of the capital market. For example, on March 16, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued an announcement to further promote the pilot program of public offerings REITs , saying that it is studying and formulating rules for the expansion of infrastructure REITs. , actively promote the pilot project of publicly raised REITs for affordable rental housing Implemented. On April 2, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the Ministry of Finance and other three ministries and commissions, revised the "Regulations on Strengthening Confidentiality and File Management Related to Overseas Issuance and Listing of Securities" to promote the orderly overseas issuance and listing of securities by domestic companies. Carry out.
html On April 26, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Opinions on Accelerating the High-quality Development of the Public Fund Industry", On April 29, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "About Improving the Delisting of Listed Companies" by proposing 16 measures to support the differentiated development of the public offering industry, strengthen the team of public offering fund managers, and increase the proportion of medium- and long-term funds. "Guiding Opinions on Supervision Work" to provide guarantee for normalized delisting
htmlBefore the market opens on the first trading day in May, the central government The Bank of China, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the China State Administration of Foreign Exchange held separate special meetings. The China Securities Regulatory Commission proposed four important measures to stabilize growth and prevent risks, including promoting macroeconomic stability and promoting the comprehensive deepening of the capital market. Reform, steadily expand the institutional opening of the capital market, and pay close attention to capital market risk prevention and control.
Reshaping market confidence
With the release of “stable growth” policy signals one after another, market concerns have also been alleviated to a certain extent, but many uncertainties still exist.
Careful organizations like to interpret policy intentions from the wording and release time of high-level meeting drafts. For example, at the Political Bureau meeting of the CPC Central Committee held on April 29, "What is different from the past is that the draft of this meeting was issued at noon that day, which released an extremely strong signal of stable growth, and the market was also very excited." "Responding to market concerns in a timely manner" mentioned in the capital market section of the draft is to some extent echoed, " Tianfeng Securities said.
Tianfeng Securities believes that the biggest bottleneck in the current market is lack of confidence. Especially since the outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai in April and the rebound in many places across the country, it is difficult to assess the extent of short-term economic damage. The separation from overseas markets and the outflow of orders will further The impact of the epidemic is long-lasting. The Politburo meeting’s statement on stabilizing growth this time was no less powerful than in 2020, giving the market the firmest response.
"Recently, the interest rate differential between China and the United States has been inverted, and the exchange rate has depreciated. Coupled with the recurrence of domestic epidemics, there is a certain risk of capital outflows, and domestic capital market confidence is under pressure." Li Zhan, chief economist of the China Merchants Fund Research Department, believes that the previously held The Financial Committee meeting attached great importance to the stability of the capital market and fully responded to social concerns, which is conducive to the restoration of market confidence.
Li Zhan analyzed that the Politburo meeting pointed out that "it is necessary to respond to market concerns in a timely manner, steadily promote the reform of the stock issuance registration system, actively introduce long-term investors, and maintain the smooth operation of the capital market." It is expected that with the further development of policies, capital market confidence will It is also expected to be restored.
"The external environment has passed the worst pressure, but there is still a big test in June." Soochow Securities released a research report on May 2 saying that the most stressful moment for overseas capital to sell Chinese stocks has passed, but the interest rate gap between China and the United States The selling pressure on bonds caused by the inversion will continue for some time.
In addition, if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 850 points in May and shrinks its balance sheet at the same time, then the U.S. economic recession expectations in the next 12 months may rise sharply in June, and the recession expectations may cause U.S. stocks to fall, dragging down the performance of domestic stocks. .
In terms of the internal environment, Soochow Securities believes that it has passed the worst scenario expectations. "It is reasonable to speculate that there will be no large-scale long-term closures in extremely important cities like Shanghai in the future. However, it is estimated that the Guangdong approach of 'detecting cases early and closing appropriate areas as soon as possible' will be promoted across the country."
"The market cannot be accurately estimated Uncertainty still exists about the impact of this strategy on the economy and enterprises. Judging from the feedback from the first quarter report, investors generally adjust corporate profits to negative growth in 2022," Soochow Securities said.
As the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuates around the important 3,000-point mark, the role of institutions as "ballast stone" and "stabilizer" has become increasingly important.
Li Xunlei suggested that in the context of accelerated financial opening up, in order to resist the impact of overseas market fluctuations on the A-share market, it is recommended to encourage long-term funds to enter the market and increase the proportion of equity assets held. Li Xunlei cited the insurance industry as an example: "90% of companies allocate less than 10% of their stocks, which is far from the 45% upper limit set by the regulatory authorities."
The regulatory authorities lived up to expectations. On April 21, the industry’s long-awaited personal pension system was launched. On April 26, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Opinions on Accelerating the High-Quality Development of the Public Fund Industry." Compared with previous industry framework documents, this "Opinion" is much more detailed and contains many new ideas.
For example, in "Strengthening the Team of Public Fund Managers", the relevant expression "bank wealth management subsidiary" appeared for the first time. In addition, the "Opinions" also put forward specific new requirements for the scope of performance appraisal, including compliance and risk control levels, long-term investment performance for more than three years, and actual profits of investors, etc., to be included in the scope of performance appraisal.
“Compared to the United States and Europe, the turnover rate of A-share stocks is very high. This reflects that our short-term speculation atmosphere is still relatively strong.There are more short-term transactional investments and relatively less long-term allocation investments. "Li Zhan said in an interview with a reporter from Caijing that allocative investment is beneficial to the development of the entire market, to companies with real long-term investment value, and to public fund holders. Especially when benchmarking against the US market, It is expected that efficient allocation can be achieved. "
The "Opinions" encourage the establishment of a bonus follow-up investment mechanism for core employees, which is consistent with the long-term interests of the holders. Two months ago, the fund industry began to carry out self-purchase operations. Fund companies began to purchase their own active equity products, and fund managers also took out their "property" to join the ranks of bargain-hunting A-shares.
html On May 6, Dong Chengfei, a former star public fund manager who just joined a private equity institution, issued a large-scale self-purchase announcement, saying that he would subscribe for a new fund of no less than 40 million yuan. The reason is "based on confidence in the long-term, healthy and stable development of China's capital market and the The original intention of advancing and retreating together with the holder."
In the eyes of institutional investors, with the continuous adjustment of the A-share market, investment attractiveness has become increasingly significant. On May 2, Guotai Junan Securities issued a research report stating that “the valuation of A-shares is close to the historical lower limit.”
“If we look at the dimension of one year or longer, the current market risk premium is already at a historically high level ( 90% percentile), the market has fully reflected Pessimistic forecasts such as the impact of the epidemic and geopolitics already have high investment value," Lu Bin, investment director of HSBC Jintrust Fund, told Caijing reporters that growth sectors represented by new energy, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, etc. have better long-term prospects. Development space and growth, and after adjustment, both valuation and investment value are highly attractive.
"At the same time, short-term factors that plague the market and industry, such as rising costs, are also expected to be alleviated in the second quarter or the second half of the year. The current market has highlighted medium- and long-term opportunities. The more times like this, the more important it is to believe in common sense and seize opportunities." Lu Bin say.
"After comprehensive evaluation, we believe that the vicinity of 2900 points is this year's gold pit. The opportunity for income this year comes from seizing the low position. Investors can consider bargain hunting first to lay out post-epidemic recovery and stable growth. Growth stocks will rebound on the right side of the market. Let’s expand.” Chen Guo, chief strategy officer of CITIC Construction Investment, expressed his latest opinion, “In the next quarter, the improvement trend of the entire internal and external environment is a high probability event, but the process is likely to have certain recurrences. We believe that strategically we cannot be pessimistic anymore. Gradually turn to optimism."
China Asset Management believes that the rebound may not happen overnight. Whether the market can confirm that it has bottomed out will ultimately require confirmation of changes in the national epidemic trend, as well as economic fundamentals. Under the relay of stabilizing growth policies, whether the growth rate and structure of social financing can be substantially improved. . "Overall, with the overall market valuation falling into the historical bottom range, and with all kinds of pessimistic expectations fully digested, although the index may still relapse, long-term investment opportunities have become increasingly positive."
Wei Fengchun tends to The scenario is: the weight index enters the bottom shock range, similar to 2012-2013, which means that the market still has a lot to do structurally. "Multiple factors support a rebound in the short term, but don't expect a V-shaped reversal."
When A shares fell below 3,000 points, Sheng Fengyan, the fund manager of Western Gains Fund, encouraged netizens on Weibo. "China's response to the Sino-US trade war in 2018 and the new crown epidemic in 2020 has fully proved that the resilience of China's fundamentals is far beyond everyone's imagination."
"At this moment, it should be 'extraordinary optimism'." Sheng Fengyan said, " I’m worried about the epidemic, the exchange rate, the supply chain, capital outflows, and economic growth. But looking back six months later, how many of these things are we still worried about now?”
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