The United States advocates a "debt crisis" in Africa
We all know that the United States, relying on the monetary hegemony brought by petrodollars, is crazy about printing money and harvesting the wealth of other countries around the world. In contrast, China has helped backward countries develop their economies through infrastructure projects in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. A comparison of the two can be said to be a judgment call.
However, even though China is so generous, Americans have come up with new rhetoric.
According to Reuters report, US Treasury Secretary Yellen said in a speech this week that China is an important obstacle to debt restructuring reform in the African region, especially Zambia . Zambia experienced a debt default in 2020 and is the poorest country in the world. The International Monetary Fund IMF stated that Zambia will have to pay US$35 billion in foreign debt to officials and creditors by 2022, 40% of which belongs to China.
In response to such ridiculous remarks, the Chinese Embassy in Zambia resolutely fought back.
On the surface, Treasury Secretary Yellen is talking about the Zambian issue, but considering the current situation, her rhetoric may be describing the United States itself. On January 13 this year, Treasury Secretary Yellen sent a letter to the U.S. Congress, emphasizing that the United States has once again reached the legal debt ceiling of US$31.4 trillion. The U.S. Treasury Department has taken special measures to ease the pressure, but at the same time called on Congress to negotiate as soon as possible to complete the increase in the debt ceiling to protect the crumbling national credit of the United States. Otherwise, once the United States defaults on its debt, the federal government will be completely shut down, which will directly shake global market investment confidence and trigger a global financial crisis .
Instead of blaming China, the United States should look at its own debt crisis and discredit other countries without being able to prove its innocence.
As for Zambia's debt crisis, China emphasizes that China's actions are all based on the existing G20 framework to seek solutions, and have achieved certain results. China hopes that the United States can work with us to play a constructive role in effectively solving Zambia's debt crisis.
Pointing fingers at China, the United States should take care of itself first
In fact, the debt problem of the United States is no longer a commonplace. Since the launch of two wars, the United States has consumed all the Cold War dividends, and even directly triggered the 2008 financial tsunami. This is a fact that everyone knows. In the Obama era, the United States completely abandoned its original balancing policy and entered an era of massive debt borrowing. During the Trump period, although I thought about using real industries as support, I still couldn't beat the ultra-high labor costs in the United States. As for the current Biden administration, it can almost be said that it is tearing down the eastern wall to repair the western wall, and it also wants to save the face of a superpower.
said unceremoniously that the current debt problem for the United States is like drug addiction. If the economy is not good and the finances are insufficient, then let go of the upper limit and borrow more. If it triggers inflation, then directly ask the Fed to raise interest rates . It’s no problem if you can’t repay the interest, just keep borrowing again. If that doesn't work, let the federal government shut down for a few days. And debt will eventually snowball and turn into an embarrassing situation where one cannot make ends meet.
But American politicians don't care about these "little things". What they care about is how much the military is expanded, how many buildings are built, how many border walls are built, and how many battles can be won with the weapons Ukraine are given, so that they can seize political capital for themselves. This is what I often say, Nowadays, American politicians "talk politics" have come before national interests. In this environment, senior American officials will inevitably make some nonsense. This is not accidental, but inevitable.
It seems that it has become a consensus among the American political circles to criticize China when things go wrong. This is too sad. You must know that the high-level economic talks between China and the United States a few days ago were not bad.
But no matter what we say, no matter how hard China tries to persuade us, the situation has gotten so bad that the US government still goes its own way.There is an old saying in China that good words cannot persuade a damned ghost. The United States is asking for trouble, so let it be.
Ukraine has raised 159 tanks. Is the Russian army facing hard times?
While the United States is still making irresponsible remarks on the debt issue, a new situation has emerged in the competition between Russia and Ukraine. According to multiple media sources, with the change of the German Defense Minister, restrictions on the supply of Leopard 2 main battle tanks have been lifted, and Ukraine will soon receive a batch of Western advanced tanks.
According to Western media, Germany will be the first to provide Ukraine with a 14-car Leopard 2A6 company. The United States also announced on the same day that it will provide a batch of 30-car "Abrams" main battle tanks. Western Europe and Nordic countries have followed up one after another. Currently, 14 Leopard 2A4s of Poland have been confirmed. Those in the pending status include 4 Leopard 2A4s from Portugal, 20 to 53 Leopard 2A4s from Spain, 8 Leopard 2A4s from Finland, and 14 Leopard 2A4s and A6s from Sweden. The Netherlands and Denmark are still under discussion, but there are also 18 Leopard 2A6 and 6 Leopard 2A5 and A7.
If coupled with the 14-vehicle "Challenger 2" company previously provided by the United Kingdom, Ukraine will receive more than 159 third-generation main battle tanks of Western standards in 2023.
According to the establishment of the Ukrainian army, these 159 tanks can barely make up 4 tank battalions. Such a powerful mobile force will play a decisive role in the direction of the war.
Of course, this is just a relatively optimistic assumption. Today, the Russian army's offensive is still fierce, especially in the direction of Atmsk. The Russian army has been beaten into a "bulge", and it will only be a matter of time before it changes hands again. At the same time, the Russian army's T90 tank is still being delivered. From October to December last year alone, more than 200 tanks were rolled off the production line. Although there are certain reductions in configuration, the foundation for advanced third-generation tanks is still here.
Judging from the current Russia-Ukraine war model, due to the existence of a large number of anti-tank missiles , the conflicts between the two sides are still concentrated in the infantry grinding stage. Traditional armor-and-gun confrontations are very rare. Tanks are more used as a barrier-breaking assault force accompanying the infantry. That is, the walking, protective infantry gun can directly bomb buildings in a street fighting environment, which has an overwhelming advantage over infantry fighting vehicles.
However, judging from the tactics used by Ukraine in the past, it is not impossible to use armored forces to carry out assaults. For example, in the Battle of Kharkov, almost all the mobile forces on hand were concentrated in one attack, and more than 10,000 square kilometers of land were captured in one fell swoop.
As for the current situation on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, with the Russian mobilization of troops in place, the leaky defense lines have been fundamentally improved. If the Ukrainian armored forces charge rashly, they may face a series of "Cornet" missile attacks, and ultimately suffer heavy losses.
Of course, there is also a political factor for Ukraine in how to use these tanks. The previous "Haimas" rocket launcher set a good demonstration effect, allowing Lockheed to make huge profits from orders. At the same time, it strengthened NATO's confidence in assistance and continued to provide it. If these leopard 2 cannot achieve a good enough exchange ratio, I am afraid it will directly shake the minds of the big financiers. After all, the size of Ukraine is still far behind Russia.
In addition, Ukraine is now facing a fundamental problem, which is a shortage of manpower. There may not be many so-called "capture young men", but veterans with combat experience have been exhausted in bloody street fighting. The rejuvenation of combat troops is a good thing for big countries, but for small countries, it is a disaster at the strategic level, because it will directly affect post-war reconstruction, and the lack of labor force is never a good thing.
In short, although Russia and Ukraine have not yet reached their limit, if they continue to fight, they will face a "lose-lose" outcome. Russia has invested too many resources in the war. Like an all-in gambler, it will not let go easily until it makes back its money. The same is true for Ukraine. No one will doubt their determination to defend their territory. However, burning the future of their own country to seek independence is also a very risky and heroic act in itself.
As for these tanks provided by European friends, they may be able to alleviate urgent needs in the short term, but Ukraine's tank industry is all in the eastern region, and it does not have any hematopoietic capabilities. These tanks will probably only make a few snowflakes in the bloody attrition war .
From a military perspective, I believe that the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield will probably usher in a crucial decisive battle in 2023. Russia cannot afford to delay it, Ukrainians cannot afford to die, and the European economy cannot bear it.
Leave the United States alone and go it alone, Turkey is preparing to withdraw from NATO?
Of course, in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there is another country that can be said to have a strong presence. Not only has it made a lot of money in arms, but its international image has also taken off directly. By mediating between the two sides, it has become a pivotal power in the region, and that is Turkey.
Recently, Turkey has seen a new trend.
According to the Russian Satellite News Agency on January 25, citing the Turkish "Light" newspaper, because countries such as Sweden allowed thugs to openly burn the Quran in front of the Turkish embassy, this was a provocation by NATO against Turkey. Some experts believe that Türkiye may choose to withdraw from NATO and go it alone in the next three to five months.
At the same time, in response to the "applications for membership" from Sweden, Finland and other countries, Turkish President Erdogan announced that due to the Nordic countries' connivance towards these terrorists, Sweden should not expect Turkey to support them in joining NATO. They are no longer "qualified" to receive any "charity" from Turkey. The three-country negotiation mechanism between Turkey, Finland and Sweden, originally scheduled to be held in February, was announced to be canceled indefinitely, and Türkiye will not give the green light to their "joining".
In fact, from a historical perspective, Turkey has always been an oddity among NATO countries. Although it has strong military power, it belongs to an Asian country geographically, with 97% of its land located in Asia. It is essentially incompatible with other European allies.
The reason why NATO is wooing Turkey is very simple, that is, its geographical location. The Turkish Strait directly guards the Black Sea , which directly chokes the Soviet Navy's "going out" lifeline. Once NATO the Warsaw Pact goes to war, Turkey will be the Sword of Damocles over the Soviet Union. Moreover, in peacetime, NATO can also use this to disgust the Soviet Union, so that large Soviet warships must obey when passing through.
Also because of its high importance, NATO has always been conniving towards Turkey. Even if there was a Cyprus war with Greece, it would turn a blind eye and both sides would give it a blow to settle the matter.
After entering the new century, Turkey's secularization has significantly regressed. Especially in Erdogan's era, Grand Turkism began to prevail. We often talk about him mistaking his ancestors. This is the reason.
Moreover, the Soviet Union has disintegrated, and Russia's current strength has declined across the board, which has directly led to Turkey's declining importance, and the limit of what the West can tolerate has been stretched.
So we can see that when Turkey launched an attack on the Kurds in Syria , NATO responded with practical actions and withdrew part of the "Patriot" air defense missile battalions deployed in Turkey. As a result, there was a heated S400 purchase case, which can be said to be a loud slap on the face of the United States. Generally speaking, Türkiye and NATO have been seemingly in harmony with each other for a long time. However, it was only because of the existence of the common enemy, the Soviet Union, that many conflicts were covered up.
As for the "withdrawal from NATO" incident that has been caused this time, I think it may end up being more thunderous than rainy, because Turkey now needs to be within the framework of NATO allies to gain benefits for itself. If it "withdraws" in anger just because of a few unexpected incidents, this is very stupid at the strategic level. In addition, Turkey still needs NATO's "Patriot" missile battalion to cover its local air defense. The S400 purchased is only of greater political significance. No one would dislike free protection.
Of course, this does not mean that the conflict between NATO and Turkey will be alleviated. The "joining" of Finland and Sweden is the "will" of the United States and most NATO countries. If Turkey is stuck here alone, then the so-called international prestige will be gone. Moreover, the current strategic initiative is still in the hands of the United States. If Turkey does not agree, then it will build a new multilateral military alliance framework. For example, QUAD in the Indo-Pacific region is a good model to follow. Although this has the potential risk of splitting NATO, for Biden it is just signing a few more documents. Turkey's current dance will not actually have a great impact on the final result.
