As we all know, Weihai is a third-tier coastal open city with a bright future. Weihai is the most suitable city for human habitation. It has a beautiful environment, good air, and unique natural advantages and geographical location. It is warm in winter and cool in summer, and is crowded with tourists every summer; it is also the habitat of the first-level protected animal whooper swan .
Starting in 2015, Weihai took advantage of the shantytown reform, and housing prices continued to rise until 2019 when housing prices doubled. As a result, people in Weihai also gained a lot of property income.
In 2020, due to the epidemic, housing prices in Weihai stopped rising and began to go sideways ; until 2022, although housing prices were faltering, they still managed to avoid falling. Therefore, there is no selling phenomenon in Weihai.
During the Spring Festival this year, I went back to my hometown to pay New Year greetings. Through visiting relatives and friends, I overheard two pieces of news. I began to worry about the housing prices in Weihai, worrying that there would be a frightening wave of selling in the future.
The first news: There is a situation where the landlord is renting out the premises without charging rent.
This is what a relative told me.
He has two branch rooms in ✘✘Shengdi (for the sake of caution, the full name of the property cannot be disclosed), a few hundred meters away from the bus terminal and train station, rented to users for zero rent.
I was puzzled by this and said, "Since the rent is zero, why are you renting it out? Why not just sit idle?"
He smiled and said, "Brother, you are an amateur. Even though the rent is zero, aren't there still water, electricity and other expenses?"
I was even more confused. Water, said: "As long as it is not rented out or used, where will the water and electricity bills come from?"
He said: "What about the property fees? If it is idle, don't I have to pay property fees every year? If I rent it out, although I will not receive rent, at least someone will pay the property fees for me."
After listening to his words, I suddenly realized that I also realized the downturn of the rental market. If it is affected by the epidemic, it should be able to turn around in the future.
However, the second news made me lose confidence that housing prices can keep rising.
The second news: the exodus of young people is too serious.
First, too many college graduates stay in other places, and the proportion is too large.
Among our relatives and friends, the children born in the 1990s basically stayed in the place where they graduated from university. Some stayed in Shenzhen, Ningbo , Qingdao , some stayed in Beijing, Shanghai, Jinan, etc.; some stayed in Rizhao , which made me feel incredible.
Rizhao is also a third-tier city. Why don’t we Weihai people come back? Where can we stay? Rizhao's population and city size are on the same level as Weihai's. Why don't people from Weihai go back to their hometown and stay and work in Rizhao?
After thinking about it carefully, I feel that Rizhao has only one advantage over Weihai, and that is the low price level. I stayed in Rizhao for three years from 1993 to 1995 and was responsible for our company's Rizhao market.
At that time, prices in Rizhao were much lower than in Weihai. For example: dumplings in Rizhao cost 3 yuan per plate (half a catty), while Weihai costs 5 yuan per plate; ramen in Rizhao costs 1.5 yuan per bowl, while Weihai costs 3 yuan per bowl; crawling shrimp Rizhao costs 10 yuan per plate, and Weihai costs 20 yuan per plate.
This was the consumption level at that time. Now that I haven’t been there for many years, I don’t know the specific gap. I was on a business trip in Rizhao. I would go there for half a month and then come back, averaging once a month. Therefore, I didn’t rent an apartment. I stayed in hotels every time I went there and ate at all the small food stalls and restaurants in Rizhao. At that time, the cost of meals in Rizhao was nearly half that of Weihai.
At that time, the cost of eating ramen, dumplings, stir-fried vegetables, etc. from a street stall in Rizhao was equivalent to eating in the workplace canteen in Weihai; the cost of treating guests to a meal in a hotel was equivalent to eating in a small restaurant in Weihai.
I think that according to normal rules, prices in Rizhao should be lower than in Weihai now.
I am born in the 1970s, and our children are born in the 1990s. Most of the children of the next generation did not return to Weihai for employment, but stayed in the city where they graduated from university.
Secondly, the trend of people born in the 1980s to work abroad has become more and more popular.
Most of my friends who were born in the 1980s came back to work after graduation; some came from rural areas to work in the city. They are now about forty years old, and some of the children are in their teens. The diplomas of most people born in the 1980s are not as high as those born in the 1990s, so some go abroad to work in order to increase their income.
A fellow countryman of ours, his eldest daughter was born in 1980 and settled in Weihai. Later, his son-in-law went abroad to work first. The son-in-law worked abroad for three years and settled down. This year, he plans to arrange for his daughter to go out as well and take his children with him. He said that children will not have to spend money to study there (it seems to be a country like Zealand).
What’s even more outrageous is that this fellow’s second daughter (born in 1988) was jealous when she saw that her sister was going abroad, and she was planning to go out after the Chinese New Year this year.
Our fellow countryman is 68 years old this year, so I said, "What if something happens to you and your two children are not around?"
He said, "What are you afraid of? I'll be back by plane in two days."
I couldn't help but smile when I saw the proud look on his face. Suddenly a sentence came to mind:
"If you don't travel far away when your parents are around, you will have to travel well."
This sentence has misled me for thirty years, causing me to give up many opportunities to develop in big cities. My concept is too old to develop.
In our hometown, there are still many people who go to South Korea and Japan to work. What's the big deal if this continues?
Since 2019, the outflow of young people in Weihai has become more and more serious. Although some people from other places come to Weihai to buy houses and settle down, most of them are elderly people who are retired or close to retirement. How much development prospects can such a group bring to Weihai?
How can a city’s domestic demand and economic development be driven by the elderly? Therefore, I am very worried about the decline in housing prices in Weihai. Most people in Weihai own more than two houses. Once housing prices fall, our assets will be greatly reduced.
Many of my relatives and friends have more than three houses, but I only have one. Therefore, my worry is definitely not for myself, but I don’t want everyone’s assets to shrink.
What should I do if my friends and relatives come to borrow money from me because their houses have dropped in price? To borrow or not to borrow?
