The picture shows Tsai Ing-wen resigning
As the saying goes, thousands of people beat the drum and pushed down the wall. After the DPP authorities were defeated by the Kuomintang in this year's "nine-in-one" election, Tsai Ing-wen announced her resignation, and then fierce internal fighting broke out within the "Green Camp". At the same time, KMT Chairman Zhu Lilun and Vice Chairman Xia Liyan both stated that they would be committed to maintaining the peaceful development of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Many people believe that the opportunity for cross-Strait reunification may be coming soon. However, on December 1, the Taiwan authorities conducted multiple military exercises in succession, and the content was mainly "simulated expulsion." So, Tsai Ing-wen has resigned as chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party, why have cross-Strait relations not improved? There was fierce internal fighting in the Green Camp. How did it happen? In the 2024 Taiwan regional elections, can the Kuomintang make a comeback? Regarding the above three issues, I will start with this election and give you an in-depth analysis.
The picture shows Taiwanese people voting
Taiwan's "nine-in-one" election is a large-scale election of grassroots officials. Nine positions, including county mayors, councilors, and citizen representatives, will be re-elected and voted on. The 21 county mayor positions that attract the most attention are currently. The election results have been officially announced. The Kuomintang won 13 county mayor seats. Among the so-called "six capitals" Won four, including Taipei City, New Taipei City , Taoyuan City and Taichung City, while the DPP only won 5 seats, the other 1 seat was for the People's Party, and 2 seats were for people without party membership. After this election, The DPP's local governing territory is only in the southern corner of Taiwan. Even in Kaohsiung City and Tainan City, which are "dark green vote bases", the DPP's lead has been significantly reduced. It can be said that the DPP's loss this time is worse than in 2018.
First question: Tsai Ing-wen has resigned as chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party. Why are cross-strait relations not improving?
At present, Tsai Ing-wen has resigned as chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party, and Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Qimai is taking over the post. Obviously "resisting China and protecting Taiwan" is no longer a good medicine for governing, so why are cross-strait relations still not improving?
The picture shows the Taiwanese people’s remarks against “Taiwan independence”
The nature of the DPP is difficult to change. Since coming to power, the DPP has been advocating "resisting China and protecting Taiwan", relying on the covert support of the United States to seek independence. This will not change with Tsai Ing-wen's resignation. You know, Tsai Ing-wen's resignation is nothing new. After losing to Ma Ying-jeou in the 2012 election, Tsai Ing-wen has resigned three times, but this has not delayed her control of the DPP. In the future, the DPP will only become more radical on this path.
The Kuomintang’s current desire for “unification” is not strong either. Although the governing philosophy of the KMT is different from that of the DPP, there is no big difference between the KMT and the DPP in terms of "taking advantage of foreign countries and self-respect". It still hopes to rely on the United States and achieve the so-called "cross-strait peace." Therefore, when it comes to cross-strait relations, the KMT will not adopt an overly positive attitude and will not use fierce confrontation at most. What's more, under the long-term influence of the DPP, a large part of the people in Taiwan have also been affected by its "de-China". It will still take a long time for cross-strait relations to truly improve.
The most important thing is that the United States will not give up interfering in the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Since the United States implemented its Asia-Pacific strategy, it has been constantly causing trouble for China in the Taiwan region, intending to use this behavior to slow down China's economic development. Until now, this strategic thinking has not changed, but has intensified. From this point of view, the United States will not sit back and watch cross-Strait relations enter a healthy track. Before getting rid of the influence of the United States, there are still great obstacles to the development of cross-Strait relations.
The second question: There is fierce internal fighting in the Green Camp. How did it happen?
There has always been fierce internal strife within the Democratic Progressive Party, commonly known as the "Green Camp". How exactly did it engage in internal strife?
The picture shows Tsai Ing-wen and Lin Zhijian
The DPP is mainly divided into two major factions.This in itself is a historical legacy of the DPP. Rather than saying that the DPP came first and then factions, it is better to say that there were factions first and then merged into the DPP. At present, the so-called "British faction" and "New Trend faction" of the DPP are based on two books respectively. The magazines were named after each other, and they all existed before the establishment of the Democratic Progressive Party. In fact, there were centrist and reunification forces within the Democratic Progressive Party before. However, as the cross-strait situation changed, these ideas were gradually marginalized, which led to the current situation of the Democratic Progressive Party.
In fact, there are already undercurrents within the DPP. At the beginning of this year, Zhou Chunmi and Zhuang Ruixiong, both members of the Democratic Progressive Party, tried to undermine each other for the position of Pingtung County Magistrate. Zhuang Ruixiong also tried to win votes for himself by accusing Zhou Chunmi of colluding with the Kuomintang. In addition, DPP "legislator" He Zhiwei also appeared on a political commentary program They criticized Taipei mayoral candidate Chen Shih-chung as having a "mafia background." This statement was later refuted by Hong Yaofu, a senior member of the Democratic Progressive Party, saying that Chen Shizhong's defeat was all because of He Zhiwei's "delay." Various signs indicate that there are considerable rifts within the DPP.
After this election, the DPP openly began to list so-called "war criminals." According to media reports, senior leaders of the Democratic Progressive Party recently made a list and began to hold accountable for this fiasco. The list includes former Hsinchu mayor Lin Zhijian, DPP secretary-general Lin Xiyao, and deputy secretary-general Lin Heming. These are key members of Tsai Ing-wen's "British faction." At this critical moment, the DPP does not reflect on its governance mistakes and adjust the party's image in a timely manner. Instead, it is busy "liquidating." This shows that the internal struggle of the DPP has reached a fever pitch.
The third question: Can the Kuomintang make a comeback in the 2024 Taiwan region elections?
At present, the Kuomintang has won a majority of county and mayor seats, and its future in power is bright. So in the 2024 Taiwan region leader election, can the Kuomintang make a comeback?
The picture shows KMT Chairman Zhu Lilun
First of all, the DPP’s basic base is still there, and the KMT has learned lessons from previous elections. In 2018, the KMT defeated the DPP in the "nine-in-one" election, but it still failed to win the leadership position in Taiwan in the 2020 election. What's more, the number of KMT's county and city councilors has actually decreased. Therefore, this result is largely due to the various "reverse actions" under Tsai Ing-wen's administration, which attracted the Taiwanese people's disgust and voted for the KMT. This does not mean that the KMT's support rate has truly exceeded the DPP.
Secondly, the general election will test the party's governing policy, which will be more conducive to the DPP's propaganda of "resisting China and protecting Taiwan." The "nine-in-one" election in Taiwan and the election of regional leaders are two different things. Many Taiwanese people have the mentality of "depending on the KMT for survival and relying on the DPP for 'protecting Taiwan'." Young people, especially those under the influence of the DPP, will prefer the tough DPP. If the KMT does not have strong enough candidates, its probability of winning the election in 2024 is not high.
Finally, the Kuomintang is currently facing three major tests. One is that the support of the Kuomintang is growing rapidly. Although it has only been established for 3 years, it has gained the trust of many people in Taiwan and even has a faint tendency to surpass the "blue-green camp". This will become a major threat to the Kuomintang; secondly, there are also struggles and divisions within the Kuomintang. The main reason for the previous defeat in 2020 was disunity within the party, so this is also a major variable in the Kuomintang election. Third, the "nine-in-one" election results do not represent the final will of the people. This may just be a "lesson" for the Taiwanese people to teach the DPP. After all, judging from the data, the turnout rate of county mayors in this election was only 60%. This shows that many people who are dissatisfied with the DPP did not vote for the KMT, so they chose to wait and see. How to solve these three issues will become the key to the KMT's next election.
The picture shows the "nine-in-one" election in Taiwan
Generally speaking, the KMT's victory in the "nine-in-one" election is indeed a breakthrough political achievement. However, the DPP has always been good at manipulating elections. The KMT will still face many variables in the future. Whether it can withstand the support of the people in Taiwan The test still needs some time to observe, but in any case, cross-strait reunification is the general trend. It is not related to the future of certain political groups in Taiwan, but to the well-being of the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. There is no room for negotiation on this issue. We hope that the Taiwan authorities can recognize the situation as soon as possible, give up the illusion of "relying on the United States and seeking independence", and stop making wrong actions that go against public opinion.
Author: Xiao Ming
This article only represents the author’s opinion and has nothing to do with the position of this account
