CPT Markets market analysis: The recession is forming, and the number of people forced to work part-time is showing signs?
Oil prices are weak, and the U.S. consumer price index in July increased by 8.5% year-on-year, compared with the June consumer price index of 9.9 which hit a high in more than 40 years. 1%, the current situation is relatively mild, and many outsiders believe that U.S. inflation may have converged. Therefore, as soon as this news broke, it inspired the U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average to rise by 520 points in early trading on August 10. S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Index rose by 1.75% and 2.26% respectively.
When paying attention to the consumer price index, we will definitely pay more attention to the core consumer price index . Why? Because it excludes energy and food that are more sensitive to prices and can accurately express the current price level. Therefore, after deducting volatile energy and food items, the core CPI in the United States in July increased by 0.3%. This data was not only lower than the 0.7% in June, but also lower than the market's expected monthly increase of 0.5%. The increase was the lowest since March. Of course, these surprising data will be The Federal Reserve is most happy to see it, but in fact there is still some time before the September interest rate hike schedule. I think many people are still worried about the current market conditions. After all, the Fed will raise interest rates significantly in September, which may cause hidden worries for the economic prospects in 2023. The probability of having a hard landing with cannot be underestimated.
Now, when most people are judging whether the economy is showing signs of recession, their first instinct must be to find a breakthrough from the employment market data. Paying attention to the US employment data in July easily defeated the market expectations and successfully broke the outside world's speculation about economic recession. However, do you think this is really the case?
Did you know that there is a group of people in the job market, which we classify as the number of involuntary part-time workers. Usually, if the number of involuntary part-time workers increases significantly, it means that the job market currently seems to be strong. In fact, the prospects may be unstable, because a large increase in the number of people means that the company is in poor condition and has reduced working hours. It is also possible that these people cannot find full-time jobs and settle for part-time jobs.
According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of part-time workers mentioned above surged by 303,000 to 3.9 million after seasonally adjustment in July. Therefore, do not underestimate this data. However, these workers are temporarily recruited to cope with additional work. Therefore, if corporate employers face a softening economy, they will definitely lay off them in advance. However, there are still different voices in the market. They believe that the current increase in the number of part-time workers is because the recruitment speed was too strong in the past, causing companies to correct the recruitment speed now.
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