Source of this article: Times Finance Author: He Mingliang
Source: Tukong Creative
Since June, the number of domestic passenger flights has recovered significantly and increased significantly compared with the first five months.
flight manager "National Civil Aviation Daily Overview" statistics show that from March 14 to the end of May, the domestic passenger flight volume has been below 5,000 for a long time, and since June 5, the number of passenger flights exceeded 6,400, the national civil aviation flight volume has remained between 6,000 and 8,000 flights in the past two weeks.
Source: Flight Manager
This recovery is hard-won. On the one hand, the epidemic is eased, and on the other hand, the summer is approaching, and colleges and primary and secondary school students are about to have a holiday, and the demand for travel is released. What is the specific situation of
?
summer transportation accelerates recovery
entered June, and the number of passenger flights increased steadily. The daily overview of national civil aviation shows that the number of passenger flights nationwide has increased from 4,803 on June 1 to 7,856 on June 22. Among them, on June 19, the passenger flight exceeded 8,000, the highest level since March 6.
Judging from Qunar's big data, the summer season has driven the tourism market to accelerate recovery and strong momentum. From June 1 to 15 this year, the number of hotel bookings nationwide increased by more than doubled compared with the second half of May month-on-month compared with the second half of May; in the past week ended June 16, the number of summer air ticket bookings increased by nearly three times compared with the previous week, and the number of train ticket bookings for students increased by 70% month-on-month compared with the previous week. Popular destinations for summer air ticket bookings are Chengdu, Shenzhen, Kunming, Guangzhou, etc.
Tongcheng Research Institute pointed out that in view of the characteristics of the mutant strain of the new coronavirus Omickron , the epidemic prevention and control policy mechanism has introduced the normal arrangements for nucleic acid testing , and has initially found the balance point between epidemic prevention and control and stabilizing the economy. The scope of the implementation of the cross-provincial travel circuit breaker mechanism has been reduced from the provincial level to the district and county level, thus avoiding the simultaneous circuit breaker of multiple provincial markets in the summer of 2021. This will be a relatively direct support for tourism this summer at the policy level.
With the arrival of summer transportation, airlines are also aiming for "this cake".
Starting from June, Chongqing Airlines has newly opened Chongqing-Changsha- Xiamen , Chongqing- Kashgar - Yining and other routes, encrypting five routes including Chongqing-Wuhan, Chongqing- Huizhou , and launching special discount tickets on more than 40 routes, with a minimum of 20 discounts. Chongqing Airlines expects to operate 61 routes and 58 waypoints during the summer transportation period.
. Since this year's summer transportation is expected to become a "hot product", the first batch of summer overtime flights will be launched in Shenzhen from July 1 to August 31, mainly on Urumqi, Lijiang, Jining , Yancheng and other routes.
Juneyao Airlines joins hands with Sanya Travel to launch the "Sanya Fun Sifei" travel package product for the summer holiday market, and launches the "Second Fly Card" multiple round-trip air ticket package covering the entire summer.
passenger flights are being restored in large quantities, airlines have increased their layout in the summer tourism market, can civil aviation summer transportation be expected in 2022?
On June 23, Times Finance called the office of the Securities Affairs Representative of China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH). Relevant staff said that summer travel is a favorable factor in performance repair. "If the epidemic is effectively controlled, we are still optimistic about the peak of summer travel. We will arrange our luck, but the uncertain impact of the relevant (epidemic) is still relatively large."
Tongcheng Research Institute pointed out that due to the rebound of the local epidemic, the 2021 summer travel market failed to continue the recovery momentum of the 2020 summer travel. During the summer of 2020 (July and August), the number of passengers sent by railways and civil aviation recovered to about 68% of the same period in 2019, while the summer of 2021 recovered to only 67% of the same period in 2019. However, in combination with the optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies and various favorable policies, the overall number of tourists in 2022 is expected to recover to more than 70% of the same period in 2019.
Cheng Chaogong, chief researcher of Tongcheng Research Institute, pointed out that the demand for travel is relatively elastic, which is optional for some people, but the demand for business travel and family visits is relatively small. Therefore, the recovery ratio of the large travel market supported by rigid demand such as travel and family visits will be slightly higher than that of the tourism and vacation market.
Third-party civil aviation consulting agency CAPSE pointed out that in June 2022, the tourism travel intention index rose by 12% month-on-month, and the business travel intention index rose by 8% month-on-month, but the two indexes were both downward trends year-on-year in 2020 and 2021. In terms of user portraits, the business travel intention index of 31-50 years old, monthly income of 10,000 to 20,000 yuan, and the business travel intention index of private enterprise passengers and middle-level managers has increased significantly month-on-month.
air tickets are too expensive to persuade consumers to withdraw
The summer weather is coming, and the consumers are excited first.
Xiaoyu (pseudonym), a sophomore student in Guangzhou, cannot hide his desire to travel. She entered university in 2020. After the epidemic, she basically planned to travel, but was shelved due to the epidemic. "The first time was Shanghai, and the second time was Chengdu. The itinerary was all set up, and after talking to her parents, she set off, and then the epidemic broke out."
Xiaoyu told Times Finance that you can go to travel within the province at any time, but the duration of travel outside the province does not exist at any time. "There is only two years of freedom left in college. If you don't go to play now, are you waiting for retirement?"
Moreover, Xiaoyu, who has not traveled out of the province for too long, no longer cares about the price of transportation, and this time it is likely that he will choose to fly to Tibet.
In addition, many parents also told Times Finance that they are willing to travel near the summer vacation. However, Xiao Huang (pseudonym), an employee of an in a public institution in Guangzhou, expressed a little regret, "You can only plan to travel within the province during the summer vacation. Her husband's unit stipulates that the process of leaving the province must be followed, which is very troublesome."
At the same time, the high air ticket prices have also "destroyed" consumers' enthusiasm for travel to a certain extent.
"The air ticket price is too expensive, it is expensive for me in my lifetime." Azhi (pseudonym), a travel self-media practitioner, told Times Finance. Azhi has been working in media for more than ten years. He loves traveling everywhere on weekdays. "I can't afford (air tickets); if the organizer does not include large transportation (on business trips), I will not travel at my own expense."
He believes that on the one hand, taxes and fees have risen to a high point, and the two-way trips in China are nearly 300 yuan more than fuel surcharge for two trips; on the other hand, the number of flights has not yet fully recovered (Times Finance Note: The number of flights since June is about 60% of the same period last year). "When supply exceeds demand, how can (air ticket price) be reduced?"
On February 5 this year, domestic airlines resumed charging fuel surcharges, and each passenger with a route below 800 kilometers (inclusive) is charged 10 yuan, and each passenger with a route above 800 kilometers is charged 20 yuan.
As international oil prices remain at high levels, the price of its downstream product aviation kerosene also rose. Since February, domestic fuel surcharges have undergone 5 adjustments, and currently, each passenger on routes above 800 kilometers is charged 140 yuan.
On June 23, an employee of a third-party OTA company told Times Finance, "I heard that the fuel surcharge may continue to rise from July, but no exact notice has been received from the airline."
Times Finance found that the ticket price for booking a Guangzhou-Beijing air ticket departing at 9:00 on July 1 was 950 yuan, but the airport construction tax (50 yuan) plus the fuel surcharge (140 yuan) has reached 190 yuan, and a total of 1,140 yuan is required. The booking platform also shows that the ticket price is currently at a low level. Through big data analysis, the probability of price increases in the future is relatively high.
Han Tao, a researcher at the Research Department of the China Air Transport Association, pointed out that with the resumption of work and production in various cities in China, cross-regional travel has resumed, demand recovery and fuel surcharge increase are superimposed on each other, and the total number of flights has not increased significantly, it is possible to further increase air ticket prices.
