The battle between Russia and Ukraine has now reached its ninth month. With the large number of vital forces intervening, the Russian army launched an attack on the Ukrainian controlled area again. After Khlsong , Bachmut became the most tragic place in the Russian-Ukrainian war. In order to compete for Bachmut, Russia and Ukraine fought for five months, with heavy casualties and injuries. Bachmut has become the "meat grinder" of the two armies. Seeing that the situation was so stalemate, the Russian army seemed to be unable to sit still recently. With the order of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Russian army in these three places launched an offensive against the Ukrainian army at the same time.
From the perspective of the overall situation, the key battle between Russia and Ukraine is most likely to be Bachmut. Although the Russian army suffered heavy casualties here, the speed of advancement was getting faster and faster, and it could rush forward for more than half a kilometer a day. While the front line is moving forward, the encirclement of the Ukrainian army is also constantly shrinking. Up to now, a total of five brigades of the Ukrainian army are in the encirclement, with a total of 15,000 soldiers being "made dumplings". Just like the original Mariupol , they were surrounded by Russian troops.
Obviously, the Russian army is now determined to capture Bachmut. However, this is reasonable. This place is an important node among the many fortifications arranged by the Ukrainian army in Donbas . If you want to make a major breakthrough on the battlefield, the Russian army must break through Bachmut. Now it seems that the Russian army has seen hope of victory, and it is hard to say whether the Ukrainian army can withstand the Russian offensive. Because the Ukrainian army has been surrounded, and the encirclement is also shrinking. Once the encirclement is completely formed, the 15,000 Ukrainian troops will be equivalent to becoming an isolated army.
Unlike Mariupol, Bachmut does not have a large steel factory, and the Ukrainian army can only fight in the trenches. With the harsh terrain, coupled with rain, snow and low temperature, it is difficult for the Ukrainian army to receive rapid treatment, so the morale of the Ukrainian army will inevitably become lower and lower. So once it is completely surrounded, even if the Russian army does not take the initiative to attack, the Ukrainian army will not be able to sustain it.
Judging from the current state of the Russian army, the surrounded Ukrainian army cannot hold on for too long. Even if Ukraine chooses to increase its troops now, it will be difficult to affect the battle situation of Bachmut. If you want to defend this stronghold, the Ukrainian army needs at least an army of 80,000. Because according to the information disclosed by the Americans, the Russian troops retreating from Khlsong to the left bank of the Dnieper River were already on the way to Bachmut. Moreover, in this situation in Ukraine, it is unlikely to raise another 80,000 people.
It is not only Bachmut who is in short supply. The troops in all major war zones in Ukraine are very tight, and there is no extra army to mobilize at all. Unless Zelensky launches a large-scale recruitment plan again, but now there are basically few young people in Ukraine. What is even more pessimistic is that although Ukraine cannot see any hope of winning on the battlefield, the peaceful negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are still far away. 【Three Earth】
