The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been fighting for almost 10 months now. Although some people still use their positions to replace facts, they view the conflict. But there is a real fact that cannot be avoided - this conflict is developing in a direction that is unfavorable to Russia.
I have said countless times that Russia now faces three huge dilemmas in this "special military operation":
First, it is sanctioned, blocked, and fell into unprecedented isolation;
Second, whether it is ordinary people in Russia or soldiers on the front line, they are unwilling to continue to fight;
Third, there is a serious shortage of logistics supplies and weapons and equipment on the front line of the Russian army.
These difficulties are reflected in the battle situation on the front line: the Russian army's continuous retreat, such as: the bonus man and Khlsong areas some time ago, all of which the Russian army took the initiative to retreat.
Although Russia is very popular now, it uses the missile to attack Ukraine; it uses the nuclear weapon to threaten the other side, etc.
But there is an unavoidable fact: the top leaders within Russia actually don’t want to fight, and they also want to conduct substantial ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine, Europe and the United States.
I am not talking nonsense or talking nonsense. The top leaders in Russia, including Lao Pu, have sent out signals of wanting to negotiate many times.
But the current situation is a bit speechless: Russia wants to negotiate, but Ukraine does not want to negotiate, does not want to cease the war, and its attitude is relatively firm.
According to the mainstream view of many people: Ukraine is the beaten side, and the war is basically carried out on Ukrainian land. Logically speaking, the Ukrainian side and the Ukrainian people should be eager to truce the war and not to fight!
So why does Ukraine not want to cease the war, but instead want to continue fighting? Let me briefly analyze with you: What is the essential reason why Ukraine does not want a ceasefire? There are about five reasons in general:
Reason 1: Ukraine generally has an advantage, and they think they can achieve greater results
This is actually easy to understand. If Ukraine is at a comprehensive disadvantage and is in a passive situation of being beaten, I think the top leaders of Ukraine will definitely be eager to truce and negotiate.
Just imagine, if the battle situation has no advantage over Ukraine, the more you fight, Ukraine will probably lose more benefits and territory, which is obviously undeserved.
But now Ukraine has received strong support from NATO and the United States, and is also in an advantage on the battlefield. Therefore, Ukrainian top leaders believe that the more they fight, the more lost land they will recover and the greater the benefits they will get.
Reason 2: Even if Ukraine wants to make a cease, it cannot stop. The Americans don’t want the war to end here.
The reason why the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been fought for so long and the Ukrainian side is getting stronger and stronger is that the Americans play a key role. The Americans continue to provide weapons to Ukraine and also provide a lot of aid cash to Ukraine.
I have analyzed before that the longer this conflict is fought, the more beneficial it is to the Americans. There are two reasons:
First, Americans have achieved the purpose of weakening Russia's strength at a very small price, which is a business that is stable and profitable.
Second, as this conflict continued, many European countries began to defect to the United States and lost their autonomy one after another. In this way, Americans can achieve their goal of further controlling EU and Eastern European countries. For example, the US military has entered Eastern European countries in large numbers.
To put it bluntly: even if Ukraine wants to make a ceasefire or negotiate with Russia, it is estimated that the Americans will not allow Ukraine to do so behind the scenes.
Reason 3: Once a real truce is true, it will be harmful and unprofitable to the senior officials of Ukraine. As long as this conflict continues, the Ukrainian government will continue to receive real money from European and American countries. In this way, their income is guaranteed. In addition, as long as Ukraine is still in a state of war, the high-ranking position of Ukraine will be stable and there will be no problem.
Just imagine, if there is a real truce, where will the senior Ukrainian leaders get so much aid, and the power in their hands will inevitably be greatly reduced. Many people must know that once a country enters a state of war, the power in the hands of the top leaders will be huge.
Reason 4: The longer Ukraine fights, the better it will be, and the higher its status in the future will be
In the end, the world will eventually be based on two words - the word strength. Why is Ukraine's current status in the world constantly improving? In fact, there is only one fundamental reason: the international community has seen the Ukrainians' war strength.
Just imagine, if Ukraine was dealt with by Russia as soon as the war started, no country would look at Ukraine differently now, and European and American countries would not vigorously provide Ukraine with great assistance.
Let’s give a simple example: Why do Americans spare no effort to support Israel in Middle East ? In fact, there is a very important reason: the Israelites are very powerful in combat, but they just help the Americans watch over the Middle East.
What many people don’t know is that in the first, Second Middle East War , the Americans did not strongly aid Israel. Later, the Americans strongly aided Israel precisely because Israel won the first two Middle East Wars . This allowed Americans to see Israel's strength and value. No country is willing to help a country without combat effectiveness.
According to such logical reasoning, the longer the Ukrainians fight, the better the future will be. If the truce is now, it is obviously not in Ukraine's interests.
The last and more critical reason is that the price code or bottom line of the negotiation between the two parties was not negotiated. Russia's negotiation price code is: keep the current state unchanged, that is, the land occupied by Ukraine will be its own in the future.
However, Ukraine's negotiation conditions are: Russia must at least return to its pre-war state, and it is best to return Crimea to Ukraine.
Russia obviously will not give in, otherwise it will not be able to explain to the internal masses. Russia has been fighting until now, and it has died, its economy has been sanctioned, and its international isolation. If it goes directly to the state before the war, how can the Russian top leaders stay at home in the future?
Ukraine is actually similar. Now people are dead, the economy is collapsed, the country is bombed, etc. If Ukraine gives up its territory in the eastern Ukraine, I guess the "driver" will step down immediately and even be killed directly by the Ukrainian people.
Finally, let’s summarize: Why is Ukraine unwilling to cease the war now? In fact, there are five reasons:
First, Ukraine is generally in an advantageous position, and it is beneficial to it to continue to fight;
Second, Ukraine is a little involuntary, if the Americans don’t shout for a stop, Ukraine itself dares not stop, and it cannot stop;
Third, the longer it fights, the more aid Ukraine gets, and it won’t suffer any loss anyway;
Fourth, the longer the Ukrainians fight and the stronger the strength they show, the higher the status of the future;
5, there are huge and irreversible differences in the bottom line or conditions of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, but they want to talk about it but cannot find a consensus;
