There are always people who complain about why China's oil prices "rise more and fall less"? It must be admitted that this is the truth, so what is the reason? Some people also complain that China's oil prices are the most expensive in the world. But why are the world-recognized oil giants such as BP, Total, Shell and other companies, instead of CNPC and Sinopec , which have huge markets and seemingly higher profits? Some people also complain that when oil prices fell back to 2004 levels in 2020, our gasoline and diesel prices were much higher than in 2004. How should this be explained?
China's gasoline and diesel prices cannot be directly compared with those of foreign countries, and it is meaningless to compare directly. 48% of our oil prices are taxed, while the United States accounts for only 18%. Of course, there are also higher than us. For example, tax revenue accounts for 58.46% of the UK oil prices and 56.29% of Germany.
Someone must say that, can we compare with the UK and Germany? It can't be more expensive than them, right? In July this year, the price of gasoline in the UK reached 16.3 yuan per liter; the price of gasoline in Germany in recent months was close to 14 yuan per liter.
So don’t say that China’s oil prices are the most expensive in the world. If the tax part is excluded, then the price of gasoline and diesel in China will be cheaper. After removing taxes from the UK and Germany, it will be RMB 6.77 and RMB 6.12 respectively. If we calculate at RMB 9 per liter and remove 48% of the tax, then there will be RMB 4.68 left. This price is similar to that of some inconsistent gas stations, so you should know what the reason is. Therefore, even if China's oil prices are market-oriented, it cannot be significantly reduced. It is possible that
will drop by 10-20%, because there is still a certain gap between China's refining technology and developed countries in Europe and the United States. The same barrel of oil can turn 80% into gasoline and diesel. The professional term is "oil yield rate", but what about us? Only a little over 63%, which invisibly increases production costs. Therefore, Sinopec and PetroChina's profit margins are obviously not as good as those of Western oil giants such as BP.
Some people say that keeping high oil prices is to reduce the use of fossil energy, which is conducive to protecting the environment. This may not be in line with the facts. In fact, in 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission clearly stated that it would "implement market-oriented pricing at the right time." However, this time seems to have not yet matured. When is the right time?
I think the time is ripe when international oil prices are above $130 for a long time. Because the 2016 edition of refined oil pricing mechanism stipulates that after crude oil price exceeds US$130, the gasoline and diesel price will not be raised. In other words, exceeding this price will have a greater negative impact on the national economy and people's livelihood. What should I do if
exceeds it? There is a " risk reserve " in our refined oil pricing mechanism. When the international oil price is below US$40 per barrel, the refined oil price will no longer be lowered, and the portion of the money that consumers pay over will enter the "risk reserve". When the oil price is above $130, you can use this money to subsidize it. What if the "risk reserve" is not enough? Reforms came naturally at this time. The introduction of a market-oriented pricing mechanism can increase competition, and full competition can improve production efficiency and reduce comprehensive costs.
Then why did international oil prices fall to the level in 2020, but our gasoline and diesel prices could not be returned?
In 2004, I remember that it was only 2 yuan per liter, while in June 2020 it was 5.5 yuan per liter. The reason is very simple. The price of gasoline and diesel is not only composed of oil costs, but oil costs account for about 30-35%. The remaining refining costs include transportation costs and the appropriate profits of the company. Which one must not raise the price? So in different periods, even if the price of oil is the same, the price of refined oil cannot be the same.
Let’s talk about the issue of gasoline and diesel prices “rise more and fall less”. At present, our gasoline and diesel price pricing principle is based on international crude oil prices + taxes + refining costs + profits, so the main variable affecting gasoline and diesel prices is "international crude oil price". The 2016 edition of the regulations are adjusted every 10 working days according to changes in international crude oil prices, while the 2013 edition of the regulations are adjusted every 22 working days. The problem mainly lies in how many working days.
Whether it is rising or falling, generally speaking, there will be a slower period in 3-5 days, and we will take a break. Our oil price will only adjust once every 10 days, which will lead to a problem: for example, the crude oil price will fall by 5 days first, then go flat for 2 days, and then rise slightly for 3 days. At this time, the adjustment range of oil price will certainly not reflect the previous 5 days of sharp drop. Then, when the gasoline and diesel price is adjusted, if the crude oil price is in a downward trend, it can almost start to fall again. Then we naturally feel that the price of gasoline and diesel has fallen less and has not kept up with the changes in crude oil prices.
If the price of crude oil is on an upward trend, then the situation is slightly different. The rise rate is generally slower than the decline rate. If the rise rate of is small, the market adjustment time will be shorter. So if 10 days is used as a cycle, then crude oil has completed the process of rising, adjusting, and rising again. At this time, it is easy to adjust the gasoline and diesel price to a high level. That's why we feel that the price of gasoline and diesel is always out of touch with the price of international crude oil, and "has rise more and fall less." When I adjusted it once every 22 days before, this feeling was even more obvious.
The key to solving this problem is to shorten the price adjustment cycle of , such as changing from once every 10 days to once every 5 days. It would be better if it was adjusted once a day, but it would be very difficult to implement frequent price adjustments. It would be better to simply relax and implement market-oriented pricing. Another reason mentioned earlier is that when the price of crude oil is below US$40, the price of gasoline and diesel will not adjust, and people will naturally feel that "more rises, less falls."
When talking about the refined oil market opens to the public, Japan and South Korea are usually regarded as role models for success. Japan and South Korea are highly dependent on oil imports, but their energy security is not threatened after they are fully opened to foreign investment. Can China follow suit?
Don’t forget that Japan and South Korea are allies of the United States, so it is not appropriate to simply refer to China. If China encounters a domestic energy crisis in , the biggest reason must be from the US factor, because our energy shipping channel is almost shuttled back and forth between US military base . If China completely opens its energy market, then which countries have the strength to enter?
However, the current crisis in Russia and Ukraine may cause some subtle changes in things. If the proportion of Russian oil in China's import sources increases significantly in the future, introducing traditional European and American oil giants can actually add a lock to China's energy security.
