The epidemic prevention and control ushered in a major transformation. On November 7, the "New Ten Measures" to further optimize epidemic prevention and control measures were issued, which has changed greatly compared with the previous twenty. There are three key points in . The first one is about nucleic acid testing . Apart from going to hospitals, nursing homes, schools and other special places, you don’t need to do nucleic acid. That is to say, you don’t have to check various codes when you go to various places and move across regions. The second is that asymptomatic and mild patients can be isolated at home and no longer have to go to the temporary cabin. The third is to mobilize the whole society to participate in the mobilization of vaccination for the elderly.
new ten items were released, and many people cheered that they could return to normal life, but it also means that we are getting closer to positive , because Omickron is very popular now and no one can stop it. Everyone must be prepared to prevent shocks, and the epidemic tsunami is coming.
So, how many people will be infected with ? What preparations should we make?
On December 6, Feng Zijian, a member of the expert group of the National Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism for the New Coronavirus Pneumonia, said that according to mathematical model calculations, when the first wave of large-scale impact reaches its peak, the infection rate in our population may reach about 60%. Based on the population of 1.41 billion, that is 846 million. Up to now, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in my country is around 9 million , which means that most people will catch up with the first wave.
So, when will the first peak arrive? It usually takes two or three months. Japan relaxed in March this year and rebounded in July, with a daily increase of more than 100,000. Singapore also relaxed in March and began to rebound in June. Therefore, we expect our peak hours to be about the same.
Will it continue to fall until the peak period passes? Judging from the performance of other countries, there will still be a small rebound. According to Feng Zijian, in the end, 80%-90% of people will experience infection, that is, 1.13 billion to 1.26 billion people will be infected.
At present, Omickron's virility has been significantly weakened, and most of them are asymptomatic infected with . Take Guangzhou as an example. On December 2, Guangzhou reported that there were 3.1627 million positive infections in this round of epidemic, with asymptomatic infections accounting for about 90%, with 4 severe and critical cases, and no deaths.
So, don't worry too much. Li Lanjuan Academician said that asymptomatic infections are not patients, so there is no need to panic. And Academician Zhong Nanshan also spoke out that infection is not scary, and 99% of infected people can fully recover within 7-10 days.
For each of us, we must be prepared to prevent shocks. First of all, the epidemic is not over, and prevention of infection still needs to be done. Wear a mask, wash your hands frequently, maintain social distance, and be the first person in charge of your own health. Secondly, those who have not received the vaccine and have been vaccinated quickly, especially the elderly, who have given all three shots. Judging from past data, the severe and mortality rates of vaccinated and unvaccinated are very different. If you don’t believe it, you can look at the data in Hong Kong. The mortality rate of the html aged 170-79 has reached 5.55%, the two doses of vaccinated have dropped to 0.59%, and the three doses of vaccinated have dropped to 0.16%.
3, make personal psychological preparations , one is for the epidemic. As more and more positive tests are around you, some people may panic. After all, we have been well protected in the past three years, and now we have to face it directly, especially for the elderly who have not been vaccinated, we should still treat the epidemic with a peaceful attitude.
Another thing about economic recovery . Many people think that if they are relaxed, their business will get better immediately, and everyone will buy, buy, eat, eat. But in fact, there will be a pain period. Hong Kong, China, gradually relaxed control in April, and consumption rebounded briefly, but then it fell again. It was not until October that the year-on-year growth of in exceeded the same period in 2019. Japan began to lift controls in March, and by September the unemployment rate returned to before the epidemic, but consumer confidence did not recover. Singapore lifted all restrictions in April, and consumption began to rebound and performed well.
According to "Late Finance", it took at least eight months for Wuhan consumption to emerge from the impact of the epidemic in 2020. So, there will be differences in each place. Now we have both expectations for the recovery of social vitality and worry about large-scale infection. The two emotions are mixed together. As for how long it takes to recover, needs more patience at least one or two months, and at most three or four months.
has no turning back arrows. Since you have reached this point, be prepared for all your preparations. To be honest, it is indeed time for us to work hard to build an economy. Zhejiang has organized 10,000 companies to charter flights to "grab orders" and other places will not lag behind. Viruses are not scary, mentality is the most important.
