Shortly after the relaxation of the epidemic prevention and control in Singapore in 2022, only one-seventh of Singaporeans were diagnosed with new crown . In just 11 months (January-November 2022), one-third of Singaporeans received the baptism of the new crown, and the number of confirmed infections was 7 times that of the past two years [1]. It can be foreseen that as domestic epidemic prevention and control gradually relaxes, the late COVID-19 "tsunami" 2023 will eventually land.
December 2019 to November 27, 2022 Histogram of Singapore's new coronavirus infection confirmed data
Fear drowns out rational thinking . Media big Vs have created fear intentionally or unintentionally - according to the number of deaths from the United States from December 2019 to November 2022 [1], it is estimated that the death toll from China's full liberalization of epidemic prevention will exceed 4 million. The calculation logic is as follows:
irrational blind follower of reincarnation interprets the absurdity of déjà . Recently, the hot word "stopping drugs" on the Internet has attracted widespread attention. The Lianhua Qingwen cut off the supply of information has further aggravated the public's anxiety and irrational behavior. Is there any combination marketing of hunger intimidation that merchants take the opportunity to conduct? In the second half of the COVID-19 epidemic, I seemed to travel back to the SARS period twenty years ago, and witnessed the birth of magic medicine ( isatis root ) and the fall of again.
From "clearing" to "release" is a return to "rationality". Similarly, in the face of the COVID-19 tsunami, we need more rational thinking at this moment. In the Internet era, data is no longer exclusive to a few people. Even if you don’t have a medical background, you can use official data to analyze it to answer what we want to know most at the moment - if " Yang " tomorrow, how high is the risk of death?
7/100,000 (7/100,000), which is more than 2 times lower than the risk of death of pregnant women (161/100,000 [2])
From June 1, 2022 to November 30, 2022, China had 99,515 new confirmed cases of new coronavirus infection and 7 new deaths. From this, it was calculated that the mortality rate of new coronavirus infection in China in the past six months was 0.007% (original data source: National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China epidemic notification [3]).
Based on this estimate: ① Assuming the national COVID-19 infection rate of 50% in 2023, the estimated death toll is 51,000; ② Assuming the national COVID-19 infection rate of 95% in 2023, the estimated death toll is 97,000, which is equivalent to the annual death toll in traffic accidents (104,000 in 2003 [2]). Is the estimated conclusion of
credible?
Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in Wuhan in December 2019, the new coronavirus has undergone several generations of mutations [4], from the initial original new crown strain → beta mutant strain (Beta Variant, May 2020 South Africa) → alpha mutant strain (Alpha Variant, September 2020 UK) → delta mutant strain (Delta Variant, October 2020 India) → gamma mutant strain (Gamma Variant, November 2020 Brazil) → Omicron mutation strain (Omicron Variant, November 2021 Botswana ).
As the virus mutates rapidly, although its infectivity increases significantly, its lethality is greatly reduced. In addition, coupled with the increase in the vaccine vaccination rate, the high mortality rate of the new coronavirus has been quickly and effectively curbed.
The global COVID-19 mortality rate from September to November 2022 was 0.359% lower than the highest 6.329% in March to May 2020 [1].
The mortality rate of the new coronavirus in the United States is 70 times higher than that of the new coronavirus infection in China. It seems that China's magical medicine has played a miraculous effect. In fact, this is an illusion.
There are two common methods to evaluate the proportion of deaths of infected people. The infection fatality rate can estimate the death rate of all infected people, while the case fatality rate only estimates the death rate among confirmed cases. The calculation formula of the two statistical indicators is as follows:
If the nucleic acid screening for all employees is theoretically the vast majority of confirmed COVID-19 infections are infected people with symptoms. asymptomatic infected people will not actively screen, so " is diagnosed with ".It is obvious that the numerator is the same, and the larger the denominator, the lower the score. If there are more asymptomatic infections, the lower the infection mortality rate, which leads to the mortality rate of COVID-19 far lower than the mortality rate of COVID-19.
The United States does not require nucleic acid screening for all citizens. Most of the confirmed cases reported by WHO are symptomatic people. The calculated statistical indicator is the mortality rate of the new crown. On the contrary, China has carried out nucleic acid screening for all employees, and the confirmed cases reported to WHO include all symptomatic and asymptomatic infections. The statistical indicator calculated is the mortality rate of new coronavirus infection.
In the three years of fighting the epidemic, China has made great sacrifices, providing the world with the most valuable and truest risk of death from the new crown infection.
WHO The height of the waves of the new crown is about to become the past
Facing the upcoming "tsunami" of the new crown in 2023, we should face it calmly, just like when we often encounter bumps when we take a plane, and lands safely. asymptomatic infections and mildly infected people do not need to be treated, while the "new coronavirus magic medicine" for severe patients is not applicable. For buyers, the drugs in the "Crown Coronavirus List" have more effect on placebo. For those who are anxious in order to seek psychological comfort, it is recommended to consider purchasing a life insurance policy, such as buying , Beijing Inclusive Health Insurance for 195 yuan, which is far more effective than hoarding magical medicines.
Original : Yan Bing
Editor: Zhang Chun
References
[1] World Health Organization COVID-19 Report (https://covid19.who.int/region/wpro/country/sg)
[2] National Bureau of Statistics National Database (https://data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.html?cn=C01)
[3] The Epidemic Notice of the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China (http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/list_gzbd_9.shtml)
[4] Duong BV, Larpruenrudee P, Fang T, et al. Is the SARS CoV-2 Omicron Variant Deadlier and More Transmissible Than Delta Variant? Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Apr 11;19(8):4586.
