abstract
- international : The U.S. service industry index boosted Federal further rate hikes may weaken EU European ban on imports of marine crude oil in a certain European country and the price ceiling of US$60 per barrel effective on Monday, as well as the positive stimulus brought by the decision to keep production quota unchanged on Sunday, European and American crude oil futures closed lower .
- Domestic : Oil prices ushered in two consecutive declines! The second largest drop this year! On December 6 (the first working day), gasoline and diesel fell 440 and 425 yuan/ton respectively, which was converted to 0.35-0.41 yuan/liter.
Details
1. International: crude oil market
Yesterday crude oil staged an extreme reversal . During the night trading, oil prices fell sharply, and the high plunged to 7% . The core logic is that the current dominant oil prices is still the economic downturn expected under the background of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. The remaining production capacity is insufficient and the risk premium brought by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
[Plate Review] As of the morning publication time of the Cloud Oil Supply on December 6, the price of New York crude oil futures was at per barrel, and the increase of was 0.83% ; the price of Brent crude oil futures was 83.189 per barrel, an increase of 0.62%.
[Market Dynamics] Cloud oil supply information from the news level, is , US ISM non-manufacturing PMI comprehensive PMI final value is 46.4, both slightly higher than expected, causing market concerns about the Fed's interest rate hike , extending the market's time for the Fed to continue the end point of interest rate hike and restricted interest rate, focusing on the future focus on CPI data. second is , G7 (G7) and Australia said on Friday that they have agreed to limit the price of Russian sea crude oil to US$60 per barrel . The EU said the agreement still needs to be formally approved in writing and the relevant details will be announced this week. In addition, Russia has always reiterated that it will not provide oil and natural gas to countries participating in any price limit, but no relevant laws have been issued yet, so we will pay attention to it later. Third, OPEC+ reached an agreement on the production cut agreement , insisting on the plan to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day remains unchanged, and the plan will continue until June next year. Fourth, Saudi lowered the price of most oil sold to Asia in January, lowered to a premium of US$3.25 per barrel , lowered the price of most oil sold to Europe in January, and kept the price of oil sold to the United States in January unchanged.
[Cloud Oil Supply View] Recently, the OPEC meeting was implemented, insisting that the production cut plan remained unchanged and the EU reached an agreement on the upper limit of sanctions against Russia. In the short term, the supply side may face further shrinkage due to the EU's sanctions against Russia. In the medium and long term, OPEC continues the production cut plan, the market lacks positive energy for supply, and the market supply tension pattern remains unchanged. From the perspective of demand, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike suppresses the economy, and has the risk of a decline in the short term.
2. Domestic: refined oil market
- Yesterday gasoline overall price trend:
gasoline, at present, residents' driving frequency is not high, gasoline demand performance is average, and terminal gas station users mainly replenish the warehouse on demand. gasoline inventory is in accumulating state, and there is a significant excess in the supply link .
- Yesterday, the overall price trend of diesel :
diesel, diesel resources in most areas of China are in good condition, but the policy of downgrading refined oil is officially implemented. Except for some users who need to replenish the inventory, there are few large orders, which leads to the rising level of diesel in the rising stage, and the supply link is sufficient .The overall price of
- can be found in the following table:
Oil prices ushered in two consecutive declines! The second largest drop this year! On December 6 (the first working day), gasoline and diesel fell 440 and 425 yuan/ton respectively, which was converted to 0.35-0.41 yuan/liter. Price adjustment time: 24:00 on December 19, 2022.
3. Cloud oil supply today's wholesale guide price of refined oil
【Guangdong】
- National VI diesel 0#: self-price 8370 yuan/ton, distribution price 8430 yuan/ton (CNOOC Jianxingku, Guanghuiku, CNOOC Lishaku)
- National VI Gasoline 92#: self-raising price 8050 yuan/ton, distribution price 8110 yuan/ton (CNOOC Shengyuanku, CNOOC Jianxingku), Hunan and Hubei (simultaneous).
- National VI gasoline 95#: self-price 8330 yuan/ton, distribution price 8390 yuan/ton (CNOOC Shengyuanku, CNPC Jianxingku)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0#: self-raising price 8600 yuan/ton, distribution price 8660 yuan/ton (CNOOC Jianxingku, CNOOC Lishaku)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Oil Jianxingku, CNOOC Lishaku)
