I believe many people have questions in their minds. If the epidemic control is fully liberalized, what will happen in China?
In this regard, Taiwan Province is an excellent reference system. The people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are in line with each other. Whether it is race or physique, the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are exactly the same. Therefore, since the beginning of this year, various statistical data after the liberalization of Taiwan Province have strong reference significance.
As of 2022, the total population of Taiwan is about 23 million. The figure below is the various epidemic data from January to November this year counted on the island, which is very representative.
In this statistical chart, the number of minor and severe cases and deaths in all ages on the island are clearly visible.
As shown in the figure, the number of infections on the island from January to November this year totaled 8.22 million, accounting for 35.7% of the total population of Taiwan. That is, within one year after the liberalization, the number of infections in Taiwan will be about one-third.
Among these 8.22 million cases, the number of mild and asymptomatic people was about 8.19 million, accounting for 99.55% of the total infection cases, and the total number of people with moderate and severe illnesses was 37,093.
It should be noted that the island uses WHO's judgment criteria for mild symptoms, and hospitalization of oxygen inhalation is considered mild symptoms, so the moderate symptoms on the island are actually the severe symptoms of ours, and severe symptoms are considered critical symptoms of ours. This must be clearly distinguished.
The most valuable part of the statistics in Taiwan Province is the counting of severe illness and deaths at all ages.
From the red box I specially identified on the picture, we can see that the number of severe cases was 15,759, and then 13,442 of them died. These two numbers are not much different. It can be seen that once you enter the category of severe cases, you basically step into the gates of hell with half your foot.
This is the same as in countries around the world, with a higher mortality rate in severe cases.
At the same time, we can see that there are more deaths at both ends and fewer in the middle, that is, the older and younger people, the higher the chance of death, and the higher the chance of death in the elderly population is than that of the younger people.
According to the data displayed on the figure, I roughly counted that the number of severe cases under the age of 20 is 304. If the population of 23 million in Taiwan is calculated, the proportion of severe cases in people under the age of 20 is one-three in 100,000, that is, 1.3 out of 100,000 people will become severe.
Then the total population of people aged 10 is exactly one in 100,000.
50 people over the age of 50 have the largest number of severe cases, with 14,809 people, accounting for 6.4% of the total population of Taiwan.
Comprehensively with all severe cases, the proportion of severe cases on the island accounts for about one thousandth of the total population. This data is similar to that in Japan and South Korea, which fully shows that the severe case rate of yellow people infected with Omickron is about one thousandth of the same.
or above is an analysis of the epidemic data in Taiwan Province. Multiply the number of infected people, the number of severe cases and the number of deaths by 60-70 times respectively, which is likely to be the situation after the liberalization of the country.
I have no position on this article, but I just use objective data from Taiwan Province to roughly deduce the scene after we release it.
Personally believe that no matter how the epidemic prevention policy changes in the future, everyone will be clear about the prospects after the relaxation. Especially for those with elderly people and children at home, they can use data comparisons from Taiwan Province to evaluate the chances of severe illness after infection. This is very important. After all, life and death are at stake, and it is impossible not to care. This is the case of
. What is the final choice for everyone? They cannot interfere with their affairs. They can only place objective data here and make their own judgment.
