text: Original by Dongchedi Cailimei
[Original by Dongchedi Industry] 18 years ago, in Tesla's A round of financing, Musk changed from an "investor" to the "leader" of the company. There was no applause, no praise. Wall Street labeled Tesla as the "most unlikely successful company", and some investors even mocked him as a "outsider" in the car manufacturing industry. It has finally been listed on Nasdaq , but has been hovering on the brink of "bankruptcy" for several years. Now, it has subverted the entire industry.
4680 battery becomes the strongest expectation for lithium batteries?
If Tesla is a "crazy species", then when the lithium battery industry urgently needs a new round of technological iteration, the 4680 battery is a "crazy 'new' species", which is expected to reshape the competitive landscape of the lithium battery industry chain in the next decade. After
is equipped with a 4680 battery, the first batch of models have been cheaper by nearly 20,000 yuan
In the past two months, Tesla has been expanding faster around the world. First, the factory in Berlin, Germany was put into production, and then the factory in Texas, USA was opened. In order to maximize the production capacity and efficiency, Tesla has come up with its latest "trump card". In addition to the long-awaited 4680 battery, there is also CTC technology and integrated die casting. It can be said that these three new technologies are the reason why Tesla can maintain its industry-leading gross profit margin of more than 30%.
Tesla announced on its official account that its 4680 battery production reached one million
At the beginning of this year, Tesla officially announced that its 4680 battery production at its Fremont factory in California: its production exceeded 1 million in January. As soon as the news came out, it attracted widespread attention from the industry. This means that Tesla has made a major breakthrough in the technical barriers of 4680 batteries, and it also shows that Tesla has further moved from the large-scale mass production of 4680 batteries.
According to the progress plan of the battery cell, the Fremont factory in California, USA is a "test factory" for 4680 battery cells to produce in small quantities. Tesla hopes to copy this battery production line at its factory in Berlin, Germany and a new factory in Texas, USA.
The picture of the production of 4680 batteries in the Fremont factory in California
Soon, more than two months later, at the opening ceremony of the Texas factory, the first batch of Model Y models equipped with 4680 batteries were delivered to Tesla internal employees. According to internal emails from Tesla employees, the standard battery life model Y equipped with 4680 batteries is priced at US$59,990 (about RMB 381,000), which is 3,000 less than the price of the entry-level model (Model Y long-range AWD version) sold on the official website of the United States (US$62,990 (about RMB 400,000).
Netizens who are certified as Tesla employees showed the first batch of Model Y produced in Texas factory (equipped with 4680 batteries)
It should be noted that the Model Y produced in Texas factory is currently the most advanced product under Tesla. It uses three cutting-edge technologies: CTC technology (technology that directly installs the battery cell to the chassis), 4680 battery and integrated die casting, which can significantly reduce the difficulty of production and assembly of the vehicle, and while improving performance, it can also reduce the production cost of the vehicle.
The first batch of Model Y in the Texas factory started delivery
According to the latest information currently exposed, the new car is a dual-motor version, with a range of 279 miles (about 449 kilometers) under EPA operating conditions, an acceleration time of 0-60 miles per hour is 5.0 seconds (60 miles ≈96.5 kilometers), and a maximum speed of 217 kilometers per hour.
In this way, the Model Y produced in the Texas factory does not seem to have a significant advantage in performance, but the reduction of the selling price of US$3,000 (about RMB 19,000) is enough to show that it does reduce production costs. The battery capacity of the "AWD" version of the
4680 battery may be reduced. Even though Tesla has not disclosed the specific configuration data of the Model Y produced by the Texas factory, foreign media (Insideevs) have discovered the name of its latest model version. According to the EPA official website ( U.S Environmental Protection Agency U.S Environmental Protection Agency), Tesla has uploaded and backed up four Model Y versions, three of which were launched in December last year. Another model that has not yet been launched is named the "AWD" version.According to foreign media speculation, this version is a model equipped with 4680 batteries produced by a Texas factory.
EPA official website
Read more about the specific parameters of the vehicle. The EPA website shows that the "AWD" version of the vehicle (19-inch wheels, 5-seat version) has a comprehensive range of 279 miles (about 449 kilometers) under EPA operating conditions. If it is under urban road conditions, the range can reach 291.9 miles (about 469.7 kilometers), while under high-speed conditions, the maximum range is 263.3 miles (about 423.6 kilometers).
4680 battery (looking down at close view), the current chemical composition of its battery cell has not been announced
, and the battery capacity of this model is not shown, but according to domestic media citing industry analysis, through comparison with the battery life and energy consumption of the long-range AWD version currently on sale, it is believed that the battery capacity of the Model Y model produced in the Texas factory has been reduced by 15-20%. Currently, the battery capacity of the Tesla Model Y long-range AWD version is 80 kilowatt-hours. It is speculated that the battery capacity of the Model Y model produced by the Texas factory is about 64-68 kilowatt-hours (the official has not released the specific data so far).
According to foreign media analysis, the battery efficiency of the AWD version is slightly higher than that of the Long Range AWD version, while the battery efficiency of the 4680 battery is expected to be higher, and the curb weight of the relatively low battery capacity may be lighter. Therefore, if the AWD version uses the 4680 battery, its battery efficiency will only be higher.
Model Y model equipped with 4680 battery has a comprehensive energy consumption of 170 watt-hours/km
In addition, the EPA website also shows the energy consumption of this model. The energy consumption level of the Model Y model equipped with 4680 battery has a 162 watt-hours/km on urban roads and a 181 watt-hours/km on highway conditions. Overall, the energy consumption of this car is 170 watt-hours/km (that is, consumes 170 watt-hours of electricity per 1 kilometer of driving).
Although Tesla has registered four Model Ys on the EPA website at the same time: RWD, Long Range AWD, Performance AWD, and AWD, Tesla has currently stopped selling the RWD version in the United States. According to Musk, RWD is an entry-level version of Model Y, but it needs to be "retired" due to insufficient range. In other words, the dual-motor AWD produced in the Texas factory will become Tesla's new generation of entry-level Model Y models in the United States.
Tesla displays Model produced using 4680 and new packaging Y model
It is worth noting that on the metal plaque hanging in front of the Tesla factory in Texas, USA, there are several lines of text written:
"Made in , Texas, factory, our new 4680 battery reduces the cost per kilowatt-hour. Using our fully integrated process, we have everything we need to produce and assemble the first large capacity structural battery pack. The structure package is large The number of parts used by battery packs and cars has greatly reduced the scale of our battery pack production line to less than half of the previous factory. "
The metal plaque hanging at the door of Tesla's factory in Texas, USA can be found that Tesla's launch of 4680 batteries is not only to improve battery performance and reduce costs, but to a large extent, it is to reduce production scale and thus improve factory utilization.
At present, Tesla's entry-level model is a single motor version, which is the first to use lithium iron phosphate battery , while the entry-level model sold in the United States and Europe directly adopts a dual motor configuration. As the production capacity of the Texas factory and Berlin factory continues to increase, a single motor version may be introduced, and the selling price is expected to be further reduced.
4680 batteries accelerated to increase in volume, and crazy production expansion and sprinted to 1.5 million units for sales
Official data from Tesla shows that a total of 310,000 new cars were delivered in the first quarter of this year, an increase of 68% compared with the same period last year (184,900 units). Among them, Model 3 and Model Y models account for 95% of the total delivery volume. Regarding future delivery goals, Musk said at the financial report meeting that Tesla is confident of achieving at least 50% growth in 2021, " should be able to produce 1.5 million cars."
Photo source: Tesla official (production capacity of four major factories)
At this financial report meeting, mentioned the 4680 battery that has attracted much attention in the industry. Musk said that Tesla delivered the first batch of electric car equipped with its own 4680 battery, which is an important milestone moment. Later this year, it is expected that the Tesla Texas factory will be able to produce ModelY models with 4680 structure battery packs and 2170 non-structure battery packs at the same time. At the same time, the Tesla Berlin factory will also achieve collinear production of 2170 batteries and 4680 batteries.
Of course, Musk's ambitions are more than that. He excitedly said: " Tesla's Texas factory will become the world's largest battery factory in the future ." According to the plan, it is expected that by the end of 2022, the Tesla 4680 battery will reach a production capacity of 100 GWh per year, which can meet the use of about 1.3 million electric vehicles.
Tesla 4680 battery uses the unmistakable ear technology
Also, according to the forecast of Everbright Securities , with the increase in global sales and the penetration rate of 4680 batteries in ternary battery models Improvement, "It is expected that Tesla's sales of models equipped with 4680 batteries will exceed 1.6 million vehicles in 2025, with a penetration rate of nearly 50% in Tesla's total sales, and the installed capacity is expected to reach 123 GWh."
Tesla 4680 battery's self-developed pole ear technology can greatly reduce internal resistance and heat generation, greatly improve battery safety and life
From the technical route, the Tesla 4680 battery uses high-nickel positive electrode + silicon carbon negative electrode material, and for the first time, the winding solution of the full-pole ear is used to reduce the impedance and heat generation of the battery, and extend the battery life. Compared with the Tesla models on sale The battery cell energy of the 21700 battery has increased by 5 times (only the single battery cell energy is increased by 5 times, not energy density), and the output power has increased by 6 times. With the same battery pack volume, the 4680 battery has increased by 16%, and the battery's cost per kilowatt-hour can be reduced by 14%, which can be charged from 10% to 80% in 15 minutes. Compared with the charging characteristics of the
4680 battery pack (estimated) and the 2170 battery pack (based on SOC), the 4680 battery makes the charging speed of the tram comparable to the refueling speed of the oil car
In addition, "large cylinders are not easy to get out of control, and the thermal stability of the high nickel ternary is complementary. " Tianfeng Securities pointed out that the advantage of large cylindrical batteries is their strong ability to deal with thermal runaway, the disadvantage is their low grouping efficiency, and combining with high nickel ternary companies is just right to play to their strengths and avoid their weaknesses. The advantage of high nickel ternary companies is high energy density; the disadvantage is poor thermal stability. 4680 paired with high nickel ternary companies can fully utilize the advantages of high energy density and good security of both.
Some industry insiders have analyzed, "The breakthrough and application of high nickel ternary companies and large monadrical technologies are of great significance to the upgrade of terminal driving experience. High nickel ternary is an important technical route for mid-to-high-end electric vehicles to achieve oil level parity at long-distance battery life. ”
Tesla 4680 battery uses high nickel positive electrode + silicon carbon negative electrode material, as well as the nucleus-free ear technology
According to statistics from market research agency Adamas Intelligence, the global passenger car power battery installed capacity in 2021 is 286.2 GWh, of which the installed capacity of high nickel batteries is 154.55 GWh, accounting for 54%. In the future, with the starting volume of 4680 batteries, the proportion of high nickel in the global ternary material installation volume is expected to accelerate, and the demand for nickel will also increase geometrically in the future.
According to UK benchmark mining intelligence BenchmarkMineral Intelligence predicts that by 2030, the demand for nickel for power batteries will soar from 139,000 tons in 2020 to 1.4 million tons.
4680 battery is also expected to gradually penetrate from Tesla to high-end electric car manufacturers such as BMW and Daimler. It can be said that 4680 batteries have become the "strongest expectation of lithium batteries" at present. In addition to Tesla, it is included in Ningde Time. Battery companies such as , LG New Energy, Panisho , YIE Lithium Energy , Bick Battery, Guoxuan Hi-Tech , Honeycomb Energy, Lishen , Samsung SDI and other Samsung SDI are also actively deploying 4680 batteries. In the application end of vehicle manufacturers, 4680 batteries are also expected to gradually penetrate from Tesla to high-end electric vehicle manufacturers such as BMW and Daimler.
is written at the end:
In the past two years, although Tesla has not started production of new cars, Tesla, which has expanded production frantically, has already owned four factories around the world. With the full production of the four major factories, Tesla's sales are expected to further expand. Driven by new technologies and new products, Tesla's sales target of 1.5 million vehicles in 2022 may be just around the corner.
Now, the highly anticipated 4680 battery is about to be officially put into mass production. Due to its high energy density and grouping efficiency, its cost is expected to continue to decline after continuous scale. This is true in the overseas market. As Tesla's second largest market, domestic Model 3 and Model Y also have the possibility of price reduction, but with the rise in raw material prices and chip shortages, there are still many unknowns in the future.
