Philippine "strongman president" Rodrigo Duterte will step down on June 30, but Duterte's era has not yet come to an end. In the just-convened Philippine election, Makos Jr., the son of former President Marcos, was successfully elected president.

text/Xie Tu Xia Lanyang

edit/Qia Fei

Philippine "strongman president" Rodrigo Duterte will step down on June 30, but the era of Duterte has not yet ended. In the just-held Philippine election, Marcos, son of former president Marcos, was successfully elected president. Duterte's daughter Sarah Duterte's support as a running mate is considered one of the key factors that drove Marcos' victory. At the same time, Sarah successfully moved from Davao City, a family political base, to the front desk of Manila, and was elected vice president; Sebastian Duterte, the son of Duterte, inherited the family's basic foundation in Davao City and was elected as the new mayor. During the presidency of

, Duterte brought the "iron and blood" ruling style when he was mayor in Davao to the central government. He has caused constant criticisms abroad, but his domestic approval rating has remained high. A poll by Pulse Asia, an authoritative Philippine polling agency, showed that Duterte had a support rate of up to 72% as president; even in April, his support rate was still 67%. Now it seems that he is expected to end his presidency with a half of his approval rating, which is rare in Philippine politics.

Photo by Duterte's family in 2018. Sebastian is on the left in the back row, Sarah is on the right three-shirt, and Duterte is on the left in the front row.

Compared with Duterte, every elected president in the Philippines since the 1986 "People's Power Revolution" can enjoy a honeymoon period based on people's expectations, and then quickly disappoint voters, thus falling into a collapse in approval ratings. Many supporters believe that Duterte is the only president who complied with his campaign promise during his term; in the face of criticism that the "drug war" violates procedural justice, some people compared it with former Singapore Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew , believing that problems in extraordinary times require extraordinary solutions, which is precisely a manifestation of political responsibility.

Deputy Dean of the School of International Relations of Jinan University and Director of the Philippine Research Center, Dai Fan, told Phoenix Weekly that "in addition to the crackdown on drugs, Duterte has caused great controversy, there are few negative news that truly endangeres its political reputation and support. In contrast, Arroyo was plagued by scandals in the later stage of the president, and the opposition continued to launch a political campaign to remove her, and her people's hope fell to a low point; Aquino III was also damaged by some emergencies in domestic politics during the reign of . "

During the six years, Duterte launched a vigorous "drug war" in the Philippines, launching a huge "Build, Build" plan, and introducing a large amount of foreign investment. The Philippines is also an important partner of the "Belt and Road" initiative initiated by China. The country's foreign direct investment has been rising since 2016. After a brief decline due to the epidemic, it once again hit a new high in 2021: Data from the Philippine Congressional Policy and Budget Research Department showed that the country's net foreign direct investment value reached US$10.5 billion in 2021, surpassing 2017.

Since last year, Duterte has been changing its decisions on future political participation arrangements, which has aroused public opinion's appetite. Now that he is about to step down, the outside world is still paying attention to where he will go. Until the vote was held in Davao on May 9, he gave a relatively clear answer: he told voters that he would return to Davao after leaving office and continue to serve the Filipino people as an ordinary citizen.

set off from Davao and returned to Davao. Since becoming Mayor of Davao in 1988, Duterte and his family have gained a foothold here. Why did the Filipino people's support for the Duterte family lasted for a long time and finally let him return home in glory?

May 9, Duterte voted in Davao and spoke to supporters. Video screenshot

promotes the "Davao experience" to the whole country.

"Iron and Blood" governing style comes from Duterte's governing experience in Davao City. In this regard, Duterte never "forgets his roots": he prefers others to call him mayor than the "president", and even calls himself "Malacanan Palace (Phase Presidential Palace)" at a press conference at the presidential palace.

Davao City is located in the southern part of the Philippines and is Duterte's hometown and the starting point of his political career.The city is located in the southeastern end of Mindanao, the Philippines, and the crime rate has remained high all year round. It was once called the "City of Murder" by Asia Weekly.

Filipinos generally believe in Catholicism, Mindanao is deeply influenced by Islamic culture. In the early years, the New People's Army of the PKI carried out fierce armed resistance here, and was later suppressed during the Marcos government's military control period; the 2019 film "Mindanao" filmed by the Philippine national treasure director Brirant Mandosa focuses on the war between the Philippine military and local separatist armed forces.

British journalist Jonathan Miller wrote in his book "Fire and Furious" about Duterte's administration, saying, "Mindanao is the 'wild south' for centuries,' and has not been tamed."

Davao City, as the largest city in Mindanao and the most important port city in the southern Philippines, has a poor security situation. Its complex tribal and religious conflicts and the huge illegal trade in the Philippines are the product of the collision of complex local tribal and religious conflicts. Duterte claimed that he had managed a "wild land" like Davao City in a vivid way, not only eliminating crime, but also actively introducing foreign capital, allowing the local government to usher in economic recovery.

Aerial view of Davao City.

When talking about "killing" and "illegality", Duterte made no secret of it and even brought the topic from his hometown to the political center of Manila. "Forget about human rights. After I become president, I will kill all drug dealers, robbers, and idle people." He said this at a presidential election rally held in Manila in May 2016.

is precisely this exaggerated language and iron-fisted means that allows Filipinos to see new possibilities for social reform. Before Duterte, the drug problem was just one of many social problems in the Philippines, but he successfully defined the fight against drug crime as the main contradiction in society.

He tried to promote the "Davao experience" to the entire Philippines: the reduction in drug crime rate is seen as a necessary condition for economic prosperity, and Davao's success is evidence. Anti-drug surgery seems to be a panacea: he claimed that strict curfews, nearly ruling smoking ban regulations, and the infamous "Davao Suicide Squad" are all the prices Davao people paid to achieve economic prosperity.

To this day, Duterte still remembers "killing". According to the Philippines' Daily Inquirer, before the election officially began on May 6, Duterte warned Sebastian, the son who is running for mayor of Davao, to learn to kill as soon as possible. "If you are the mayor and you don't kill, you have to start learning tonight. If the mayor doesn't know how to kill or is afraid of killing, there will be big problems," Duterte said.

Such a murderous Duterte is regarded as a possibility of peace and reconciliation because of his rich experience in dealing with Davao's many contradictions. It is generally believed that compared with many former presidents, Duterte, who grew up in Mindanao, can understand the minority groups that believe in Islam , and during his tenure, he promoted the establishment of the "Bonsamoro" Muslim Autonomous Region in order to restore and maintain peace and stability in the south.

Duterte once claimed that he was a friend of Jose Sisson, the founder of the Philippine Communist Party. After taking office, he also promoted armed peace talks between the government and the Philippine Communist Party, but the negotiations eventually broke down. In May 2021, Duterte's attitude towards the Communist Party of the Philippines turned tough, saying that "we must let the military and police kill all the rebels."

As an iron-fisted mayor who has been in politics for more than 20 years, Duterte has brought his local mark to the vision of the whole country and even the world. When people see Duterte's murder and brutal suppression of drug crimes despite allegations of human rights abuses, they should also see the public opinion basis for the implementation of his series of iron-blooded policies: good economic achievements and "down-to-earth" characters. This contradictory and self-consistent logic is the core of Duterte's governance of Davao.

movie "Mindanao" poster.

Daxing Infrastructure and launching a war on drugs

"Davao Experience" paved Duterte's path to president: he came to power with his image and commitment of iron-fisted governance, and also fulfilled his commitment to "killing" and economic development of .

Judging from the data, Davao has indeed achieved a lot. The city's poverty level has declined under the operation of the Duterte family; Duterte often boasts that Davao achieved a "record" growth rate of 9.3% of the GDP in 2014.

Davao City has a booming outsourcing industry, and its services include call centers, telephone marketing and online language tutoring. Duterte repeatedly stressed that Davao City's growth is real, and the safe environment created after the fight against crime is a prerequisite for economic growth. Before he took office as president, a political movement to "learn from Davao" appeared in the Philippines.

Dutert is also vigorously developing infrastructure. After he took office as president, a new round of investment boom emerged in Davao City. According to " Nikkei Shimbun ", the city had "too many power stations" in 2017. Now, Davao has gone from a name that represents strangeness and danger to a vacation paradise in the south of the country – the number of visitors in the place is expected to reach 1.4 million in 2022.

In Duterte's narrative, it is his bloody and almost primitive governance that has brought modernization and prosperity to Davao. However, this method cannot be perfectly applied across the Philippines. The outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020 has had a continuous impact on the Philippine economy.

"Before the outbreak of the epidemic, the Philippines' economy generally maintained a steady growth trend. However, in terms of economic development alone, the GDP growth rate of the Philippines during the Duterte period was not particularly prominent compared with the Aquino III period." Dai Fan explained to Phoenix Weekly, "According to data released by the Philippine government, the number of poor people and poor families in the Philippines has indeed declined in the past few years. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, the number of poor people and unemployment rate in the local area has deteriorated again."

World Bank data showed that the growth rate of the Philippines' GDP data in 2020 slowed down under the influence of the epidemic, with a negative growth of 9.6%. During the five years Duterte took office, this number has remained at a stable range of 6.3% to 7.1%.

Dutert's "drug war"

According to the British Economist, Duterte promised to reform the constitution and delegate political power from the center of Manila to the local area, but this promise was ultimately disappointed; he himself admitted that the nationwide war on drug war failed to declare victory; investment projects launched with foreign investment are also suspected of "high thunder and little rainfall". The central government handled the epidemic incorrectly in preventing and controlling the new crown epidemic, and many Filipinos have not been fully vaccinated with the new crown vaccine, and the economy has also shrunk significantly compared with before the epidemic.

According to data from the Philippine Ministry of Health, as of May 10, the Philippines has completed 71.634 million doses of the new crown vaccine, and the national vaccination rate is around 65%. The Philippine government plans to fully vaccinate the target population, which accounts for 80% of the country's population, by the end of June, with about 90 million people.

Vicente Rafael, a professor in the Department of History at the University of Washington and a scholar of Philippine history and culture, told Phoenix Weekly that Duterte’s policy logic is actually full of contradictions, and his description of his achievements in Davao is not completely honest.

"The news about Davao's success is overstated. In fact, Davao has more drug smuggling than in most parts of the country; and crime is still rampant in the city," Raphael said. Philippine fact-checking media VERA Files once pointed out that the Philippine Bureau of Statistics does not provide city-level GDP data, so Duterte is likely to have put the data on the administrative region Davao Region (Davao Region) on Davao City; and the GDP growth rate of 9.3% is not the most prominent in the Philippines.

Davao's drug crimes were not "cleared" as Duterte hoped, but this did not seem to interfere with his high popularity. As the narrative was repeated over and over, more and more people accepted the stories he mentioned.

"His fear governance and economic policies are actually contradictory," Raphael said. "But he successfully reinterpreted the differences. Fear is to suppress dissent and create an image of power, law and order; development is to absorb funds and create a modern image to attract foreign investment."

" He is joking and killing people. "Raphael summed up Duterte's attractiveness in this way. Duterte's cruel governance style and approachable personal charm seem to be full of contradictions, but these traits coexist well during his tenure as mayor and president of Davao.

Duterte's language style is rough and even vulgar, which sets him apart from his predecessors. Former Presidents Arroyo and Aquino III both received education in well-known universities and belonged to the elite, and Duterte had nothing to do with this label. Raphael's new book "The Sovereign" Trickster writes that vulgar words are a kind of “Duterte’s humor” rooted in the local culture of his hometown. “Duterte uses jokes about sex to show his masculinity, uses humor to control fear, and challenges authority from traditional churches and elite forces. "

Philippine GDP growth (2000-2020)

Can "independent diplomacy" continue?

The Philippines under Duterte's rule is good at diplomacy: he hopes to obtain China's economic support and geopolitical partnership, nor does he want to lose his traditional political ally the United States.

Dutte once attracted global attention for his rude remarks to the then-US President Obama in public, and even once claimed to terminate the most important military agreement between the Philippines and the United States - " Access Forces Agreement " (VFA), restricting the United States in the Philippines Military activities in the seas. He later announced the decision to shelve the agreement several times, but finally announced the full resumption of the agreement in July 2021. In the long run, developing relations with the United States is still an important issue in Philippine diplomacy.

It is worth mentioning that China-Philippine relations during Duterte's tenure had a significant increase in China. Duterte made arduous efforts to make friends with China. He basically shelved the South China Sea dispute and focused on establishing a close economic partnership with China. He cleverly put forward the "independent diplomacy" policy, formulated a "geopolitical non-alignment" position for the Philippines, and found a balance between economic partners and political and military allies.

Duterte's relationship with China began with During his tenure in Davao City, where he developed close personal relationships with a group of Chinese businessmen. Raphael told Phoenix Weekly that these close connections likely affected his attitude towards China. He pointed out that the group of businessmen accompanied him during his first visit to China and encouraged him to establish close ties with Chinese leaders.

Daifan also mentioned that during Duterte's administration, the Philippines made great progress in infrastructure construction. Through cooperation with China, Japan and other countries, the Philippines carried out a series of infrastructure projects to build .

21 February 4, 2021, Philippine Minister of Public Works and Highways Mark Vera went to China to aid Phoenix Domino On-site inspection of the Tramuros Bridge project.

Dutert's preference for China has even penetrated into his anti-drug war. Rafael said Duterte used drug-related accusations to attack political enemies, but seemed to be particularly tolerant of Chinese drug lords who have a place in the Philippines drug market - some reports show that Chinese drug lords are protected by Philippine law enforcement.

There is news that Duterte gave special care to Chinese drug lord Peter Lin and acquiesced him to escape from sanctions. Former Senator De Lima, who was imprisoned for drug charges, accused the Daily Inquirer that this reflects the two-sided nature of Duterte's "drug war" and "how shameful and corrupt it is! "

Former President Aquino III, as the "initiator" of the South China Sea arbitration case, brought China-Philippines relations to the bottom for a time. In contrast, during Duterte's tenure, there was no major conflict in the South China Sea territorial dispute between China and the Philippines.

Of course, Duterte sometimes uses the South China Sea issue to play. In 2021, Duterte publicly expressed at a forum that he felt "disgusted" at China's maritime activities near Renai Reef , and used the Philippine name "Ayun Jin Reef" to call the disputed island. In recent months, the Philippine military department and Duterte's political enemies have repeatedly hyped on the South China Sea issue, which put pressure on him.

After Duterte stepped down.The direction of China-Philippines relations depends largely on whether the business relations between the two countries can be strengthened and whether the relevant projects of the "Belt and Road" initiative can be implemented as promised. At present, President-elect Marcos Jr. has continued its internal and diplomatic policies towards Duterte. China and the Philippines established diplomatic relations during the reign of his father Marcos. Therefore, the outside world believes that the election of Makos Jr. means that China-Philippines relations will continue to remain stable.

Dutert and Makos.

Daifan analyzed to Phoenix Weekly that while developing relations with China, the new president will also face up to the existence of the United States in the Philippines, because too anti-US policies will definitely be detrimental to themselves. But he emphasized that pro-US may not necessarily come at the cost of anti-Huahua. Developing optimized relations with China while maintaining the Philippines-US alliance is not an oppositional relationship. "Just judging from the current public remarks Makos has made, he is likely to pursue a friendly policy towards China and take a moderate stance on the South China Sea issue."

According to Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines Huangxilian , in February last year, when the global vaccine supply was tight and some countries hoarded vaccines, China's new crown vaccine aid to the Philippines arrived in Manila, becoming the first batch of new crown vaccines received by the Philippines. China's vaccine has always been the "main force" of the Philippines' vaccination program.

Duterte shows China's Sinovac COVID-19 vaccine. Source: Official promotion of the Philippine Presidential Communications Office

to allow family political capital to be continued

The reason why Duterte cannot be re-elected is due to the provisions of the Philippines' 1987 Constitution. The provision that the president can only serve for one term for six years and cannot be re-elected is precisely due to reflection on Marcos's 20 consecutive years of power; the provision that the president and vice president are directly voted by voters is due to the consideration of decentralization.

Therefore, who inherits Duterte's power and route in the central government is the issue that this political family has to face. Although Makos and Sarah became campaign partners, they never received endorsement from Duterte himself. Duterte never officially announced his support for Makos in public, and even ridiculed him for being incapable of being president and being a "spoiled child."

is rumored that it was her idea that Sarah decided to run for vice president and partner with Marcos Jr., which made her father quite dissatisfied and even planned to run for vice president next time to force her daughter to change her mind.

Duterte and daughter Sarah.

According to the Philippine media " Laple ", Sarah has kept her distance from Duterte for many years, and the two rarely even talk in private. Some media also said that the reason why Sarah chose green as the representative color of her election was to distinguish it from Duterte's favorite red.

Although Sarah's campaign and her final victory in winning the vice presidential seat are in the political interests of the family - not only can she protect her father in the face of the lawsuit against the drug war in ICC , but also play a role in promoting her family's political landscape, Sarah is not like Marcos, who does not want to be a copy of her father. Sarah's medical background and preference for social welfare programs seem to mean she will stay away from her father's way of domination.

analysis believes that Sarah is unlikely to be satisfied with the role of "spare tire" after serving as vice president. She is likely to ask for a standing ministerial position to pave the way for the presidential election six years later.

Although the Duterte family and the Marcos family achieved "north-south alliance" in the election, these two political families have always maintained a complex relationship of both enemies and friends. Duterte's image may be rebellious, but his power still cannot exist alone without the influence of major political families and chaebols in the country.

In 2016, Duterte promoted his father Vincent Duterte as a companion to the "darkest moment" of the Marcos family.But after Vincent's death, Duterte's mother Soledad Roa-Dutte became the backbone of opposing Marcos. The "Yellow Sunday Movement" led by her in Mindanao laid the foundation for the "People's Power Revolution" movement that later overthrew Marcos.

Duterte also creatively used this "contradiction" when he ran for mayor of Davao in 1988: the political stance of his parents was contrary, allowing him to attract both pro-Marcos voters and those left-leaning reformers.

Entering the 1990s, after Duterte gained a foothold in Davao City, he also began to "flirt with other political families." He has supported the Arroyo government and Arroyo's opponent Aquino III, but his relationship with the two governments is not close and has a clear speculative color.

While serving as a crime consultant in the Arroyo government, Duterte once said: "I only do well in my own city, but it won't work across the country. I'm very worried that I will fail and feel that I'm not very suitable for this position."

Marcos Jr. and Sarah Duterte's campaign poster.

For Duterte, there are no eternal allies, only eternal interests. During his campaign and administration, pro-Marcos politicians and nepotism gave him considerable support. But with the end of his six-year term, the Duterte family had long since broken away from the position of "Southern Department Valve" and became an influential political family in the country. Duterte left office with a very high approval rating, and his fame has become the political capital of the entire family.

Although Makos and Sarah formed a "unity alliance", the relationship between the two major families may become subtle after the election. Assistant Professor of at Delasa University in the Philippines, Cleo Calimbahin said they are likely to end up infighting due to conflicts of interest and resource scrambling. "We will see various compromises and competition for dominance, especially during the budget assessment of Congress."

Now, a new generation of the two families is also beginning to make their mark in politics. Marcos's son, Sandro, who is only 28 years old, ran for Congress for the first time in this election. Duterte's youngest son Sebastian is not inferior, and he has achieved an overwhelming advantage in the Davao mayoral election with a super high approval rating of 86%.

After saying goodbye to Malacanan Palace, Duterte will still exert influence for quite some time. After all, what can be continued in the Philippine political arena is never a specific agenda, line or political achievements, but a mixed interpersonal relationship and power structure between political families.

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