my country's new round of refined oil price adjustment will start at 24:00 on November 21, 2022, and the 22nd round of oil price adjustments will be ushered in the 22nd round of oil price adjustments since the beginning of this year. I believe many friends who care about oil prices have already known this.
In addition, although the latest oil price is expected to be stranded, because the crude oil change rates in the fourth and fifth working days of this round of pricing cycle are only 0.06%-0.07%, respectively, the cumulative increase of in the is less than the 50 yuan/ton price adjustment red line, so it is fully in line with the conditions for stranding, but this is the result of a fluctuation and decline all the way, and it is only one step away from entering the negative range. Considering the factors that the rise of international oil prices is limited, the new round of oil price adjustment may usher in a decline. As for the specific price adjustment results, we still need to continue to observe.
A new round of oil price adjustment may usher in a decline, and the rise in international oil prices is restricted and the US dollar rebounds.
On Monday (November 14), international oil prices rose slightly. Although the demand outlook for Asian markets is improving, the strengthening of the US dollar has limited the room for oil prices to rise. Federal senior official warned that it has not softened its anti-inflation efforts. In addition, the United States has opened the green light for India to continue purchasing Russian oil, which has also alleviated concerns about the intensified supply shortage.
At 18:00 Beijing time, the WTI New York crude oil futures price fell 0.8% to US$88.25 per barrel; the Brent crude oil futures price fell 0.61% to US$95.36 per barrel. And over time, WTI and Brent crude oil have a tendency to continue to downward adjustment. If international oil prices showed a significant decline as of the closing of the day, then the domestic oil price forecast trend is expected to enter a negative range. The price adjustment reference rate of crude oil change is "from positive to negative", which may lay the foundation for the decline of the new round of price adjustment.
Secondly, many institutions have agreed to this view that the US dollar will still rebound in the near future. After all, the rebound of the RMB against the US dollar in the past few trading days is strong. Some analysts said that in the short term of , the RMB exchange rate may still be under certain probability under pressure, but my country has sufficient policy tools to "stabilize exchange rate expectations", and the RMB exchange rate may revolve around the new equilibrium point to form more elastic fluctuations. In other words, it is difficult for the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar to maintain a unilateral increase for a long time. In contrast, the US dollar also has the basic conditions for rebound and rebound. Therefore, the moderate correction of international oil prices in generally meets expectations, and the overall oil prices remain volatile.
As of the current pre-publication news, WTI New York crude oil and Brent crude oil futures prices both fell by more than 1.0%, of which WTI was lowered by 1.23% to US$87.88/barrel; Brent crude oil futures prices were lowered by 1.04% to around US$95/barrel. Obviously, the decline in international oil prices has further expanded compared with 18:00 Beijing time, and the pullback momentum is relatively significant. It is expected that the decline may continue to deepen in the future. If international oil prices generally fluctuate and fall in recent times, then the new round of oil price adjustments ushered in at 24:00 on November 21 may usher in a decline, achieving the "eighth decline" since this year. The prices of gasoline No. 92 and No. 95 are expected to pull back moderately.
Furthermore, Federal Reserve President Christopher Waller said last Sunday (November 13), "A series of US inflation data need to improve, so that the Fed will slow down and even finally stop interest rate hikes. The price of goods has declined and service prices have eased. This is positive, but this situation needs to be maintained." However, according to the major data of the United States, it is not easy to maintain the inflation data, which also means that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates in the later period, so the rise in international oil prices is limited.
To sum up, according to the latest overseas market trends and international oil price trends, my country's new round of oil price adjustments may usher in a decline. Due to the restricted rise in international oil prices, the US dollar rebounded, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve still hikes in the later period is high, so it is only a matter of time before the oil price is lowered.
