"Finance" New Media Text丨Jiang Jinli Editor丨Jiang Shizhou
The real estate sector ushered in a rebound trend.
Last week, driven by positive policies, Shenwan Real Estate Index rose 10.24%, ranking first among all industries with increase .
11 On November 14, the three major indexes of A shares opened high and closed low and turned green in the closing. The real estate sector rose 2.08% against the market, and many other stocks such as Yuetai Co., Ltd., Xinhualian , Jindi Group , etc. hit the daily limit .
related theme fund also performed well. However, " Finance " new media noticed that in the recent rebound, the overall share of real estate ETFs has shown a net outflow. This means that many investors choose to put their pockets in order to ensure their security.
The rebound under the warm wind
More relief policies have been introduced, which are the catalysts for this round of real estate market.
November 8, in order to implement a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy, adhere to the " two unshakable " and support the healthy development of private enterprises, under the support and guidance of People's Bank of China , the Dealers Association continues to promote and expand the bond financing support tool for private enterprises (the "second arrow") to support private enterprises, including real estate enterprises, bond issuance and financing.
11 On November 9, China Bond Credit Enhancement Company issued the "Notice on Receiving Credit Enhancement Business Materials for Private Enterprises Bond Financing Support Tools", intending to raise credit enhancement needs.
11 On November 10, the Traders Association accepted the 20 billion yuan shelf-based registration and issuance of Longfor Group. In addition to Longfor Group, many private real estate companies are also communicating and matching the intention of issuing bonds. The Dealers Association and China Bond Enhancement Company are actively promoting the acceptance and evaluation work.
November 11, the Central Bank of and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Current Financial Support for the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market", and issued 16 measures to support the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market. Commercial banks, development policy banks, trust institutions, asset management companies and other financial institutions are encouraged to increase credit issuance to real estate companies, bond financing support, and merger and acquisition fund support.
In addition, Hangzhou's real estate market regulation policy was introduced, starting from November 11, "buy the first house, recognize the house but not the loan", "the down payment of the second house is 40%", the interest rate of the first house is reduced to 4.1%, and the lowest interest rate of the second house is 4.9%.
Dongwu Securities research report pointed out that the overall idea of China Bond Increase and the 16 official announcements of the central bank's finance has changed from "protecting projects but not subjects" to "protecting market entities", which greatly boosted market sentiment.
"We believe that subsequent real estate policies will remain relaxed in the existing policy framework system until the market returns to stability." Dongwu Securities judged that this round of relaxation cycle is strong and the relaxation effect is still accumulating. As residents' confidence in buying a house gradually recovers, recovery is expected.
Real Estate Industry chain has also become a hot topic of market discussion. Policy support is strong, mortgage assets are relaxed and implemented efficiently. Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund Zhao Weijie predicts that the risk of more private real estate developers will be greatly reduced, and the risk of bad debts of real estate chain companies will also decrease accordingly.
Zhao Weijie analyzed that as the real estate policy expectations improve, the industry's fundamental data bottoms out and is expected to rebound next year, and the capital market side is expected to repair the valuation first. "It is expected that the completion end will recover next year. If the developer's funds improve and construction accelerates construction, this year's completion lack is expected to be replenished by next year. After the short-term performance is implemented, the concerns about performance slow down."
Real estate ETF shares did not increase but decreased
With the help of the real estate rebound, related theme funds also performed well.
Take real estate themed ETFs as an example. There are 3 products on the market. According to Wind statistics, as of November 14, the increase has exceeded 10% since last week.
Among them, the net value of Huabao CSI 800 Real Estate ETF rose by 14.37%, and the Huaxia CSI All-Search Real Estate ETF and the Southern CSI Real Estate ETF rose by 11.75% and 11.16% respectively.
Although the rise is gratifying, "Finance" new media noticed that within the above statistical range, the overall share of funds was 118 million shares.
Specifically, the largest Southern CSI Real Estate ETF has the largest share outflow, reducing 97.5 million copies; the Huaxia CSI All-Search Real Estate ETF also decreased by 29 million copies; the smallest Huabao CSI 800 Real Estate ETF has increased by 8.5 million copies.
Investors are selling more and more. What are the concerns in the real estate sector?
A fund manager in Shanghai told Caijing New Media that real estate market sales are still facing great pressure and it is urgently necessary to introduce relevant industry policies to stabilize the confidence of the real estate market. "From the recent policy introduction, we can also see some changes, which obviously pay more attention to the stable development of the real estate market. We must not only prevent major risks from arise, but also ensure reasonable demands and improvements."
Huatai Securities also bluntly stated in the research report that the circulation of sales/financing cash flow of private real estate companies needs more external help to crack it.
"Overall, we believe that the current decisive support policies on the financing side of real estate companies can alleviate the short-term debt pressure of real estate companies. In addition, the demand-side policies are expected to be further improved and stabilize market expectations." Huatai Securities said that it is expected that more proactive policies will be released in the future and the cooperation of the demand-side bottom-up policies will have room for further repair in the subsequent market environment.
