US Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report tonight saying that the total number of non-farm employment increased by 315,000 in August, with an expected 300,000, compared with the previous value of 528,000. In August, the labor participation rate of rose from 62.1% last month to 62.4%, but was 1.0 percentage points lower than the level in February 2020.
But as more workers rejoined the labor market, the unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 3.7% in August, and the number of unemployed people increased by 344,000 to 6 million.
wages continue to rise, but slightly below expectations. The average hourly wage this month increased by 0.3%, while increased by by 5.2% year-on-year, both 0.1 percentage points lower than expected.
Friday's report also made modest corrections to July's non-farm employment data, and BLS is currently estimated to create 526,000 jobs last month, down from the 528,000 previously reported. U.S. labor data maintained strong growth, with job growth averaged 378,000 in the past three months, and non-farm employment increased by 5.8 million in the past 12 months.
as the labor market continues to recover from unemployment caused by the pandemic-induced recession. This increase has brought the total non-farm employment to 240,000 people higher than the pre-pandemic level in February 2020. In August, jobs in professional and commercial services, healthcare and retail industries increased significantly.
U.S. stock Stock index rose
0 Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday morning showed that non-farm employment increased by 315,000 in August, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7%. Economists had previously expected employment to increase by 300,000 and unemployment rate to remain at 3.5%. ADP employment data showed that private employment increased by only 132,000 in August, down from 268,000 in July.
This means that the U.S. job market appears to be slowing, unemployment rate rises unexpectedly, and new non-agricultural jobs and wage increases have declined.
After the hawkish speech at the Jackson Hall seminar last week, investors were highly concerned about non-farm data tonight, after being willing to accept weak labor conditions in exchange for price cooling, Powell said, "The labor market is particularly strong, but obviously imbalanced, demand for workers is significantly greater than the supply of available workers, and it may require "some softening" of labor market conditions to reduce inflation to the Fed's 2% target. After the
report was released, the job report in August roughly met expectations, reducing concerns that the Fed will further aggressively raise rates due to overheating of the labor market. Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures rose 145 points, or 0.46%.
S&P 500 Index rose 0.3%.
Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick called it (August non-farm data) a "Blonde Girl" report. "The word applies here. Not too hot. Not too cold. This is exactly what we expect. There is nothing here to get 75 [base points] off the desktop. "
2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell slightly, down 9 basis points to 3.426%. 10-year Treasury yield fell 4 basis points to 3.225%.
"This is positive for risk assets on the day because it reduces the possibility that the Fed must further push up the rate hike expectations," Dennis, founder of 22V Research DeBusschere said. What do you think of the market for
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U.S. employment participation rate and non-farm employment population after the quarterly adjustment in August were both higher than expected. Although the unemployment rate increased, the employment participation rate rebounded strongly, and the average hourly wage increase was lower than expected, which was more conducive to solving supply chain problems. After the data was released, the volatility of the dollar index intensified, and the US stock futures short-term rose, 2 years and 10 years The inverted U.S. Treasury yields have eased.
At the same time, the market lowered its bet on Feder rate hikes . Fed observation shows that the probability of raising interest rates in September fell to 62%, and the market's forecast for terminal interest rate has dropped slightly from 3.96% in April to 3.93%.
Wanbao Shenghua Chief Commercial Officer Becky "The labor market has been in the eyes of an economic hurricane and is a calm center of recession and inflation concerns," Frankiewicz said. "The number of new jobs reported today strengthened the strong momentum in the labor market.”
Macro Risk Advisors Chief Technical Strategist John Kolovos Commentary on Market Reactions: “Whether you are in a long-term bear camp at a lower low or not, market is oversold enough to achieve a big rebound. With employment slightly higher than expected, higher unemployment rates and slightly weaker average hourly wages, the market's initial response confirms that market sentiment is too pessimistic when it is about to be released and is rebounding to 4,055, but is still likely to reach the 4,220 S&P 500 index. ”
But he further pointed out that it is difficult to see the report exclude the Fed's 75 basis points rate hike on September 21, and the consumer price inflation report released on September 13 may be the key to determining whether 50 basis points or 75 basis points.
As the Fed abandons forward-looking guidance on future interest rate adjustments, he focuses on making decisions that rely on data-dependent —which means that the upcoming August CPI data to be released on September 13 has become even more important. As of July, U.S. consumer prices rose 8.5% year-on-year.
