Domestic oil price forecast trend has undergone new changes. As the new week begins, according to the regulations in my country's " Oil Price Management Measures ", it can be seen that the main indicators of the corresponding working days of the new round of pricing statistics cycle have been released, and the data on the forecast rise and fall of oil price is updated, allowing countless people to clearly understand the current trends of oil price expected to change. At the same time, there is a preliminary judgment on the rise or fall of the new round of price adjustments, so that they can prepare for response in advance, and then they can save the next expenditure.
gets back to the point. According to the latest changes in oil prices, the crude oil change rate in the fifth working day of this round of pricing cycle exceeded 2.0%. The oil price forecast cumulative increase has expanded to 110 yuan/ton, a significant increase from the previous working day. Therefore, oil prices still meet the standards of rising, and still exceed the price adjustment red line of 50 yuan/ton, so my country's refined oil prices are in an upward state. At the same time, since the current new round of pricing statistics cycle has passed half, this means that the price adjustment window is getting closer and closer to the opening of 24:00 on November 7, the price of gasoline and diesel is expected to achieve the "13th increase" this year. At that time, the prices of gasoline and No. 92, 95 and diesel will continue to rise, and the cost of refueling in consumers will continue to increase.
In addition, if the current latest oil price forecast increase is converted into liter prices, the expected increase in oil price is 0.09 yuan/liter-0.10 yuan/liter, which will continue to expand compared with the previous working day, laying the foundation for the new round of price adjustments to a certain extent. Of course, for ordinary private cars, according to the estimated increase, car owners will spend about 4.5 yuan to 5 yuan more than a box of 50 liters of gasoline. If the forecast of price increase is verified, then the majority of car owners and friends will appropriately increase the refueling costs again, which is also a considerable pressure on consumers. After all, the continuous rise in gasoline and diesel prices will increase the burden of life, especially truck drivers are worried again, because the profit margin of may be squeezed again.
Secondly, the current forecast of cumulative increase of more than 100 yuan/ton, which is closely related to the overall improvement of risk preference in the market, which is beneficial to the increase in positive factors such as the decline of USD index , and the rebound of macroeconomic in the third quarter, etc., which has driven oil prices to start a significant increase. Of course, based on the latest oil price trends, it is expected that my country's gasoline and diesel prices may rise again, and the prices of No. 92, No. 95 and No. 0 diesel are very likely to continue to rise. As consumers, they need to be mentally prepared in advance. After all, rising oil prices will directly lead to an increase in consumer costs.
Furthermore, in overseas markets, some analysts said that some oil bulls who were based on the weakening of the US dollar and the Fed turn dovishly may have reduced their long positions before the Fed interest rate meeting , but many people still believe that now is not the time to cheer for the Fed monetary policy turn dovishly. At the same time, from the overall perspective, the market demand outlook continues to be under pressure, which still has a certain impact on the trend of international oil prices, and the long-short game is still the norm.
As of the close of the day on the 28th, the futures price of light crude oil delivered on the New York Mercantile Exchange in December fell $1.18 to close at $87.90 per barrel, a drop of 1.32%. The price of London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in December fell $1.19 to close at $95.77 a barrel, a drop of 1.23%.
To be precise, under the influence of the geopolitical situation, the market demand outlook has been hit, aggravated the pessimism of the international oil market for a sharp decline in oil demand. Coupled with the sharp reduction in production cuts, the market faces new supply interruption risks. Concerns about the slowdown in the global economy of continue to heat up, and there is still uncertainty in the supply outlook, international oil prices are under pressure to decline, and international crude oil prices may still maintain a downward trend in the short term.
To sum up, affected by the significant cumulative increase in international oil prices last week, my country's refined oil is expected to continue to rise and exceed the price adjustment red line. According to the latest changes in oil prices, the expected increase in this round of pricing cycle is expected to expand to 110 yuan/ton on the fifth working day of this round of pricing cycle, which obviously continues the overall upward momentum. Therefore, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are expected to achieve the "13th increase" this year.
