A list of major financial events in the week from October 31 to November 4, the following are all Beijing time:
Feder FOMC announced interest rate resolution and policy statement, and then Fed Chairman Powell held a press conference; the Bank of England and RBA will also announce interest rate resolution; German Federal Prime Minister Shultz will make an official visit to China on the 4th; Chinese national statistics The bureau released the official manufacturing PMI data for October, the United States released important economic data such as the final value of Markit manufacturing PMI in October, the non-agricultural employment population data for October, and the European Union Statistics Office released data such as euro in October and GDP in the third quarter of the euro zone; the third quarter report of A-share listed companies was disclosed to the end, and the trading of Science and Technology Innovation Board stock market-making trading was launched; German Chancellor Scholz will officially visit China on November 4.
Central Bank Dynamic
This week, the market focus was mainly on the upcoming interest rate resolutions of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.
At 14:00 pm Eastern Time on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce the interest rate resolution and policy statement, and then Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a press conference on monetary policy.
Currently, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for the fourth time at this meeting by 75 basis points.
For the Fed, four consecutive rate hikes of 75 basis points will bring it to a crossroads: the economic recovery in the late stages of the epidemic is being masked by the negative impact of its austerity policies, and domestic inflation is still at its highest level in 40 years. The Fed will choose between hitting inflation and avoiding recession, and the market expects it to be more likely to choose the latter.
The Fed's big hawk Brad hinted at an event that the Fed could raise interest rates by 75 basis points in two meetings in November and December, warning that the risk of inflation continuing to rise is high and the Fed must react.
Barclays pointed out in the report that it is expected that the pace of Fed rate hikes will be more radical, and it may increase the final value of benchmark interest rate to above 5% in 2023.
This week, the rise of U.S. bond caused the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to fall back to around 4%. Some investors still believe that the Fed's previous austerity policy may cause the economy to enter a recession. Due to this concern, the Fed may slow down its interest rate hike in the future, and the decline in the bond market is about to end.
This view has been supported by some Fed officials. Daley, a dovish Fed official and San Francisco Fed chairman who has the right to vote in FOMC meetings in 2024, said the Fed should avoid putting the U.S. economy into a "active downturn" because the rate hike is too radical, and it is time to start talking about slowing down the rate hike.
On Thursday local time, the Bank of England will release the interest rate resolution and meeting minutes, and then the Bank of England Governor Bailey held a monetary policy press conference.
Currently, the market generally expects that the Bank of England may announce a 75 basis point rate hike this week, raising borrowing costs to the largest increase since 1989, but traders also raised their expectations for a sharp 100 basis point rate hike at the meeting to 37%.
html In September, the inflation rate in the UK reached 10%, returning to its highest level in 40 years. The Bank of England has previously warned that in order to alleviate the soaring cost of living, interest rate hikes in November may need to be higher than previously expected.But Bank of England deputy governor Ben Broadbent warned that if a sharp rate hike becomes a reality, it will have an impact on the economy. Whether the UK benchmark interest rate must rise to the level currently expected by the market remains to be seen (5%).
Some analysts said that as the Bank of England continues to raise interest rates to control inflation at double digits and return to a 40-year high, the UK faces the risk of recession, low growth and rising borrowing costs, exacerbating the already stretched public fiscal pressure and creating problems for the new government.
Previously, both the British government and the Ministry of Finance confirmed that the medium-term fiscal plan originally scheduled to be released on October 31 will be postponed to November 17, two and a half weeks later. The delay in announcing the fiscal plan will also cause a headache for the Bank of England, because it means that the Bank of England will release the economic forecast and make the latest monetary resolution this week without understanding the details of the government's fiscal plan.New Prime Minister Sunak and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt are planning to increase taxes and cut public spending a total of up to £50 billion each year to fill loopholes in public finances. If the Bank of England raises interest rates by then less than market expectations, the £50 billion figure may shrink.
In addition, the RBA will also announce interest rate decisions on Tuesday, and the Bank of Japan will release the minutes of September's monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.
At the beginning of this month, the RBA raised its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 2.60%, with an expected 50 basis points increase. RBA Chairman Philip Lowe said in a statement that interest rates are expected to be further raised over the next period of time, and the scale and timing of interest rate hikes will continue to depend on upcoming data and the Council's assessment of inflation and labor market outlook.
is the main agenda of the global central banks this week:
Monday (October 31): ECB Management Committee Visco speaks, ECB chief economist Lian En speaks;
Tuesday (November 1): RBA releases interest rate resolution , RBA Chairman Loway speaks, Swedish Central Bank Governor Ing-Wai Sir made a speech, The Bank of Korea released minutes of the October monetary policy meeting ;
Wednesday (November 2): The Fed released financial stability report, The Bank of Japan released minutes of the September monetary policy meeting , ECB Management Committee Makhlouf made a speech, ECB Management Committee Villeroy made a speech, US President Biden gave a speech on infrastructure;
Thursday (1 January 3): The Federal Reserve FOMC announced interest rate resolution and policy statement, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a monetary policy press conference , ECB Management Venezuel delivered a speech, European Central Bank Governor Lagarde delivered a speech , Norwegian Central Bank announced interest rate resolution, Norway Central Bank held a monetary policy press conference, Bank of England released interest rate resolution and meeting minutes, Bank of England Governor Bei Leigh holds a monetary policy press conference ;
Friday (November 4): Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Mann delivered a speech, RBA released a monetary policy statement , ECB Deputy Governor Kimdos delivered a speech, European Central Bank Governor Lagarde delivered a speech , Bank of England Chief Economist Peel delivered a speech, 2022 FOMC Voting Committee and Boston Fed Chairman Collins delivered a speech on the economic and policy prospects.
economic data
China: On Monday, the National Bureau of Statistics of China will release the official manufacturing PMI data for October; on Tuesday and Thursday, China's October Caixin Manufacturing PMI and October Caixin Service PMI respectively.
html data in September showed that as the package of policies to stabilize the economy continues to work, coupled with the decline of the impact of high temperature weather, the manufacturing industry's prosperity has rebounded, PMI has returned to the expansion range, corporate expectations have improved, and the economic trend has been stable and improving, but the demand in the manufacturing industry is still sluggish. html China's official manufacturing PMI in September was 50.1%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range; the non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 50.6 and 50.9 respectively, both above the critical point for four consecutive months.US: On Tuesday, the United States announced the final value of the Markit manufacturing PMI in October and the ISM manufacturing PMI in October; on Wednesday, the United States announced the number of employment in October; on Thursday, the United States announced the number of first applicants for unemployment benefits in the week until October 29, the final value of the Markit service industry PMI in October and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI in October; on Friday, the October non-farm employment population data were released.
html data for September showed that the U.S. non-farm employment population increased by 263,000 in September, the smallest monthly increase since April 2021, better than the expected 255,000, and the previous value was 315,000; the unemployment rate in September was 3.5%, the lowest level in 50 years, lower than the expected 3.7%.This reflects that the U.S. labor market continues to grow at a moderate but relatively steady rate, with the decline in unemployment rate and the labor market remains tense against the backdrop of aggressive rate hikes in the Federal Reserve. Non-farm data means the Fed will continue to tighten its monetary policy. After the data was released, US stocks and US bonds fell sharply.
Europe: On Monday, the European Statistics Office announced the euro zone's October CPI and the euro zone's third-quarter GDP, announced the euro zone's October manufacturing PMI final value on Wednesday, and announced the euro zone 10 service PMI final value and the euro zone's September PPI on Friday.
last month's data showed that the euro zone's September reconciliation CPI year-on-year final value continued to climb to 9.9% from 9.1% in August, a correction of 0.1 percentage point from the initial value of 10%, barely avoiding the double-digit number, but it is still the highest level in history, with an expected 10%; at the same time, the euro zone's GDP in the second quarter was 0.8%, higher than expected. Compared with the first quarter, the euro zone's economic growth rate of increased slightly from the month-on-month.
analysts said that as the energy crisis in Europe continues to bring huge cost pressure to consumers, inflation may be temporary to get rid of double-digit growth. In this context, such a small downward revision is unlikely to distract the European Central Bank policymakers.
Energy shortages could also drive record inflation higher further, plunging continent into recession. According to media surveys, the risk of an economic recession in the eurozone has reached its highest level since November 2020, with the possibility of an economic recession rising to 60% from the previously estimated 45%.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank raised all three major interest rates by 75 basis points, in line with market expectations, and was the second consecutive sharp rate hike of 75 basis points. In a statement, the ECB highlighted the intensification of inflation in Europe in recent months. But market analysts believe that given the eurozone is likely to fall into recession in the fourth quarter, the ECB is expected to slow down the rate hike from this point.
The following are important economic data for this week:
Monday (October 31): China's October official manufacturing PMI, euro zone October CPI, euro zone third quarter GDP, US October Chicago PMI, US October Dallas Fed Business Activity Index;
Tuesday (November 1): China October Caixin Manufacturing PMI, UK October Nati onwide housing price index, UK manufacturing PMI in October, US October Markit manufacturing PMI final value, US October ISM manufacturing PMI , US September construction expenditure;
Wednesday (November 2): US to October 28 API crude oil inventories (10,000 barrels), France October manufacturing PMI final value, Germany October manufacturing PMI final value, Eurozone October manufacturing PMI final value, US October ADP employment number (10,000 people) , the US-October EIA crude oil inventories (10,000 barrels) in the week from October 28, the US-October EIA strategic oil reserve inventories (10,000 barrels);
Thursday (11,000 barrels): China's Caixin Service Industry PMI in October, the UK's service industry PMI in October, the euro zone's September unemployment rate, the number of challenger companies layoffs in October (10,000 people), The number of first applicants for unemployment benefits in the week from October 29 (10,000 people), the US-October Markit Service Industry PM in October, the US-October Markit Service Industry PM in October, the US-October PM in October I final value, US October ISM non-manufacturing PMI, US September factory orders, US EIA natural gas inventory (billion cubic feet) in the week from October 28;
Friday (November 4): Germany October service PMI final value, Eurozone October service PMI final value, euro zone September PPI, US October non-farm employment population (10,000) , US October New York Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) in October.
market
A shares: Wind data statistics show that a total of 50 companies' restricted shares have been lifted one after another this week, with a total of 2.748 billion shares lifted. Based on the closing price of on October 28, the market value of the lifted shares was 41.585 billion yuan, an increase of 52.68% from the market value of 27.236 billion yuan this week.
China Central Bank Open Market: This week, 850 billion yuan of the central bank's open market will expire in reverse repurchase , of which 10 billion yuan, 230 billion yuan, 280 billion yuan, 240 billion yuan and 90 billion yuan will expire from Monday to Friday.
closed: On Thursday, the Tokyo Stock Exchange of Japan was closed for one day due to the Cultural Festival.
Company Financial Report: This week, the third quarter report disclosure of A-share listed companies was concluded, and 455 listed companies will release their third quarter reports for 2022, including Zhongtong Bus, New Hope , Meinian Health, Huanrui Century , etc.
In terms of US stocks, companies such as Toyota Automobile, BP , GlaxoSmithKline , AMD , Uber , Starbucks and other companies released their financial reports this week.
Important Events
- German Chancellor visits China
According to Xinhua News Agency report, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin announced on the 28th that at the invitation of Premier Li Keqiang, German Federal Prime Minister Scholz will pay an official visit to China on November 4.
- Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Growth Index will be released
Shanghai Stock Exchange and CSI Index Co., Ltd. will officially release the Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Growth Index on November 4. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Growth Index selects 50 listed companies with high growth rates such as operating income and net profit from the Science and Technology Innovation Board market as an index sample, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies with high growth characteristics on the Science and Technology Innovation Board.
- Science and Innovation Board stock market making trading starts
With the approval of China Securities Regulatory Commission , the first batch of market makers of market makers of will officially launch Tech Innovation Board stock market making trading business on October 31. According to the official website of , Shanghai Stock Exchange , a total of 14 market makers have issued 50 market-making stock announcements, involving a total of 42 Science and Technology Innovation Board stocks. Among them, 22 are , the constituent stock of Science and Technology Innovation 50, with a weight accounting for 67%.
- E-cigarette consumption tax
Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs , and the State Administration of Taxation recently issued an announcement on the imposition of consumption tax on electronic cigarettes. From November 1, e-cigarettes will be included in the scope of consumption tax collection, with the tax rate in the production (import) link being 36%, and the tax rate in the wholesale link being 11%.
- Huawei Developer Conference will be held on November 5, 2022,
- South Korea takes measures to stabilize short-term financial and bond markets
According to foreign media reports, the Bank of Korea's Bank of Korea announced the measures to stabilize short-term financial markets and bond markets on October 27. The Bank of Korea decided to recognize that banks and public institutions issue bonds as qualified guaranteed securities during the three-month period starting from November 1. According to the Bank of South Korea, through this measure, domestic banks can obtain additional high-liquid assets up to 29 trillion won.
New stock opportunity
A-share and Hong Kong stock markets this week, a total of 5 new stocks were listed, namely N Tianfangbiao, N Longyang, N Hao Shanghao, N Mineng, and Juzi Bio; another 7 new stocks were subscribed for , namely Southeast Electronics, Yuanhang Precision, Tianzhen Co., Ltd., Youyan Silicon, Hongjing Technology, Yongshuntai, and Zhongzhi Technology.
has a total of 17 new funds this week (statistics of the merger of Class A and Class C), including 65 bond-type funds; 2 bond-oriented mixed funds; 5 equity-oriented mixed funds; 2 index funds; 61 QDII funds; 2 FOF funds.
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